My theory of why Trump lost the election is correct.
Joe Biden won five states that voted for Trump in the 2016 election: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia. In all five states, it was White voters who elected Joe Biden. The black vote and Hispanic vote either moved toward Trump or remained about the same. The 2020 electorate was whiter in these states than the 2016 electorate. Basically, it was a contest between angry White people and Joe Biden energized Whites who were anti-Trump while Trump deflated his populist base. The Democrats ran on the anti-Sailer Strategy. Donald Trump ran on the Jared Kushner strategy.
There is one glaring pattern that stands out in the exit polls. Donald Trump consolidated the Right and expanded his appeal to conservatives and Republicans. He lost tremendous ground in the Center with Moderates and Independents. He was leaking the support of White voters in the Center and trying to replace them with based blacks, Hispanics and winning more of the conservative and Republican vote. The final result looked like Mitt Romney’s losing coalition in 2012. The fact that Trump managed to lose Independent voters in Alabama while winning 97% of Republicans tells you something about how his brand changed between 2016 and 2020. He lost his appeal outside of the Right.
In Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the most dramatic movement toward Joe Biden occurred among working class and lower middle class Whites. The $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket swung +22 points toward Joe Biden in Michigan and +12 points in Wisconsin. It swung +5 points toward Joe Biden in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, the $50,000 to $100,000 income bracket swung +10 points toward Joe Biden. In Arizona, Joe Biden won the $50,000 to $75,000 income bracket by 9 points. These shifts reflect White Moderate and Independent voters who make less than $100,000 a year moving toward Joe Biden in the middle suburbs and rural areas. In big cities in the Rust Belt like Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago and Detroit where voter fraud is said to have occurred, he actually did better in the 2020 election.
In Georgia, the outcome was more complex than in the other four states. There was a significant movement among the White upper middle class and college-educated voters in the Atlanta suburbs toward Joe Biden. It was this combined with the decline in Trump’s margin in the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket which proved fatal in that state. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter because Trump could have lost Georgia and comfortably won reelection by winning the other four states. The same dynamic was in play there though. Trump’s appeal to non-conservative White working class men in the Atlanta suburbs who are Independent voters declined by just enough to flip Georgia to Joe Biden.
The GOP succeeded in dragging Trump to the Right on economics to pass the Paul Ryan Better Way agenda. He was elected as a populist. He governed as a conservative and lost.
It was White voters in the middle suburbs and some rural areas who make less than $100,000 a year who are Independents and Moderates who didn’t come out in the same numbers for him in the 2020 election. It was almost certainly the financially strapped “Hard-Pressed Skeptic” voters.
These are people who are located in the very center of the electorate. They are 12% of the adult population. They are as numerous as the black population and roughly the size of the True Cons swath of the electorate. The GOP didn’t want to win the election by winning those voters though. The focus was entirely on winning miniscule numbers of based blacks with the Jared Kushner strategy by pandering to them on a host of issues from prison reform to the Platinum Plan. A billion dollars was spent on this nonsense. There are just as many ethnocentric Whites with nationalist and populist politics as blacks in this country. They are a far more persuadable group that is concentrated in the Rust Belt.
The winning never stopped for MIGA and the result was Jexodus: the largest defeat for a Republican presidential candidate in the Jewish community in 20 years. The policy agenda was sold to Jewish billionaires who wanted all kinds of things even Jews don’t care about.
It could have been otherwise.
The fact that Donald Trump won 73 million votes in spite of all of these handicaps should be white pilling. If he had made the slightest effort to consolidate and expand his White populist base by delivering a policy agenda for them and hadn’t governed so poorly on issues like COVID-19, Trump would have easily held all five swing states and flipped Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Maine.
The 2020 election proves that Asians and Hispanics are amenable to backlash politics and that the toxic relationship between White liberals, the Far Left and blacks is splitting the Democratic Party. These groups moved away from the Democrats because of all the crime and violence. The Whites who moved away from Trump were just pissed off that he listened to Jared Kushner and didn’t do anything about it.
If the GOP could be less cucked on race, more moderate on economics and health care and less subservient to a tiny handful of Jewish billionaires, it could expand its appeal in the Center to Whites without alienating other groups. Instead, it prefers to run on goofy schemes like the Platinum Plan and cringe talking points like Dems R Real Racists and to die on the hill of White Millennials in the suburbs drowning in student loan debt. Naturally, this is asking far too much for the status quo to change on the Right. The GOP would rather have Charlie Kirk doing “Socialism Sucks” college tours and “Dems R Real Racists” and MIGA and have Lady MAGA speaking at CPAC and have the endorsement of Lil Wayne than win elections.
Long story short: if you give these people nothing on race or populism, they will vote on the basis of economics, which is likely what happened.