Attacking Iran

At TakiMag, Roach has stirred up a tempest in a teapot by calling for an attack on Iran and suggesting that his fellow antiwar paleoconservatives are unmanly pacifists. This follows from the realist approach to international relations he has been advocating as of late (he praises Kissinger here).

Iran is OPEC’s second largest producer. In a recent interview, the secretary general of OPEC has warned the West of an “unlimited” spike in the price of crude should Israel and the United States attack Iran. OPEC doesn’t have the surplus capacity to make up for a shortfall in Iranian production. A naval conflict in the Persian Gulf could force Iran into closing the Straight of Hormuz which would bottle up Kuwaiti crude and cut off a third of world’s exported oil to the industrialized world.

Seeing how the price of a barrel of oil has almost quintupled since “Operation Iraqi Freedom,” I think the wisdom of such a strike is properly being called into question. We’re already in the midst of an oil shock worse than those of the 1970s and early 1980s. An attack on Iran (which pumps far more oil) would be more destabilizing to oil prices than the Iraq War. It would undoubtedly send the sagging American economy into a severe depression.

Iran experienced Peak Oil in 1974. With $250 per barrel oil on the horizon, Iran is joining the worldwide rush towards nuclear energy to compensate for its own depleting reserves. Neighboring states such as Jordan and the United Arab Emirates are developing nuclear power without controversy.

Why single out Iran? Why launch another war the costs of which would outweigh the benefits?

Update: Crude is up another $4 this morning and the Dow has fallen below 11,000 because of renewed tensions with Iran. The possibility of war alone is enough to destroy American wealth.

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  1. We should be careful what we assume about Iran, or any country.

    Puor bien savoir les choses, il en faut savoir le detail, et comme il est presque infini, nos connaissances sont toujours superficielles et imparfaites.

    Unfortunately, what we do know is that the Bush administration cannot be trusted to do what it says. Iraq taught us that lesson. Many experts have long been predicting that Bush would invade Iran before he leaves office. But of course, the Bush administration would never admit to such a thing.

    “On ne donne rien si liberalement que ses conseils.”

    But it is the man who follows his own counsel, he’s the one that should lead.

  2. The cost of oil will alway be high when the central banks print money faster than the resources supplied by the money are made available. They will make more when we borrow to finance another war.

  3. What Does Iran Want?
    I think more than anything to be able to defend their country. Iran wants the same things as Israel, security. Who can they trust?

    They remember 1979; Arabic nations who supported Iraq against Iran. The integrated financial, technical, and armaments that were provided by many Arab countries to support Arabic Iraq against non-Arab Iranians was responsible for death of about 500,000 Iranians and injury of several millions.

    They remember our financial and technical support of Sadam Hossein to use chemical bombs against Iranians.

    Iranians remember summer of 1953.
    President George Bush often states that Iran is threatening the interests of the Unites States in Persian Gulf! What are the interests of England and the United States in Persian Gulf, the Persian front door to Iran?
    A primer for discussion of these issues must start with review of British and the United States policies relative to the Persian Gulf region. Stephen Kinzer, a veteran New York Times correspondent, in his book “All the Shah’s Men, an American coup and the roots of Middle East Terror”, published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2003, brilliantly reconstructs the events leading to the present dilemma of the United States in the Middle East. The events described in this marvelous book are not fiction; the events actually happened during the summer of 1953 in Tehran, Iran.

    The United States Central Intelligence Agency operation Ajax staged coup d’état in 1953 against democratically elected Prime Minister Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh. Democracy was substituted with the despotic regime of Mohammad Reza Shah. The dawn of democracy in Iran, started in late 1880, flickered by democratically elected Mossadegh, was extinguished. This was the beginning of Iranian servitude once more to the interests of England and the United States. During his last years, Shah did not trust Iranian people; his inner palace was guarded by Israel commandos. Since 1979, the United States has been punishing Iranian people for ousting the immature, weak, despotic Mohammad Reza Shah. This punishment, Iranian assert, included Iraq invasion of Iran instigated by President Regan. During this war, the United States and her satellite nations helped materially and logistically Iraqi military forces to invade Iran and use chemical and biological weapons on Iranian population.

    Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh

    In the preface of his book, Kinzer recalls his conversation with an Iranian lady about Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh. He asked her: “What do you remember…about the coup against him?” She responded:

    “Why did you Americans do that terrible thing? We always loved America. To us, America was the great country, the perfect country, the country that helped us while other countries were exploiting us. But after that moment, no one in Iran ever trusted the United States again…”

    This un-American act was instigated by Winston Churchill-Anthony Eden of England and two American brothers John Foster Dulles (US Secretary of State) and Allen Dulles (Director of Central Intelligence Agency). The primary reason for this regime change was to subordinate Iranian people and exploit the Iranian natural resources.

    Harry Truman once said: “There is nothing new in the world except the histories you don not know.” Have we learned from our past mistakes committed during 1953 not to repeat it once more? This time the price would be much larger for both the Iranian and our American societies! We must stop George Bush with his neocolonialism.

    If you were the President of Iran, what would you do for your country?

    Please read Persian Paradox [].

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