Peak Oil is the only force that I can ever imagine producing the sort of “systemic collapse” that White Nationalists envision. An economic downturn is clearly insufficient.
Now it is time to see if Peak Oil lives up to all the hype. Forget about debating the merits of the theory. It is time to ride the roller coaster and see what happens.
The IEA recently admitted that world production of conventional oil hit its all time high in 2006. As recently as 2008, the IEA was saying that global conventional oil production wouldn’t peak for decades, and that the intervening period would give the world time to adapt with a “soft landing” into alternative energy sources.
The debate over “Peak Oil” has largely consisted over whether it would happen sooner or later and whether there would be a “hard landing” or a “soft landing.” If these figures hold up, it looks “sooner” and “hard landing” won the argument.
The International Energy Agency has released its World Energy Outlook for 2010, forecasting for the first time that the global crude oil production peak that so many have long feared, has in fact already been reached-more than four years ago. International demand has since fallen slightly thanks to a recent global economic downturn, but once economies around the world have recovered, the IEA says daily crude production alone will no longer be sufficient to meet their needs. . . .
I’m not going to get my hopes up yet. My attitude is “wait and see.” We should know within the next five years if the doomers have gotten the better of the optimists.
Note: The inability of the Obama administration to stop the Gulf Oil Spill or revive the American economy with trillions of dollars in government spending has me cautiously optimistic. Global aging in Europe and Japan is another factor “out there” that could conceivably make matters worse.
Wandrin:
>That’s a brilliant idea. I don’t know if Fallout 3 can be modded but that could be great: “America 28 days after the welfare checks stop.”
As an added thought, instead of what if scenarios, another option is historical scenarios. Katrina and New Orleans, LA Riots and so on.
Erik Nordman:
the collapse (due to oil) will not be sudden
Define sudden.
Gerard Bonneau wrote:
Silver, Who said anything about demographics alone leading to collapse?
Haha. He either didn’t read this thread and used a stock-response, or opened multiple threads and responded to the wrong one! There is nothing in this one, at all, (for once), about “Demographics [Alone] Causing The Collapse”.
Someone tell Vlad who posts at Kuntsler’s blog to start using the phrase “anti-white” if a jew and/or liberal can use anti-semite then we can use anti-white.
Second, our old buddy Vlad used a portion of the Mantra and shut down an anti-white cold, but then Vlad went back to trying to be an intellectual and let the lib back up. We are here to destroy liberal anti-white cultists not crave their respect like “respectable conservatives.”
analogman,
you could be right about a return to slavery, feudalism, or something similar. and i know Barb is taken. So am i.
Erik,
I disagree. There’s lots of crude, sure, but it ain’t “a little bit” more expensive to get out.
Take Bakken in North Dakota: I get some royalty payments from some wells up there, so I’ve got my ear to the ground. Bakken has maybe a trillion barrels of oil in place. But those rocks are TIGHT. In order to get those wells to flow, you have to do very expensive horizontal drilling and fracking.
Oil at $100, $150 a barrel? Sure, say the CEOs, go for it. Oil at $70?
Uhhhhh, maybe not, best hold off.
But what does oil at $150 a barrel and gasoline at $4 a gal. do? Well, it, for one thing, provided the kick start to the mortgage meltdown which started this, the Greater Depression (because homeowners who bought a house with a payment they could only just barely make, including a long commute, cannot then afford to drive the Explorer to work when a tank of gas costs $80.)
Our entire tippy edifice of an offshored-manufacturing economy is PREDICATED on cheap oil. Without CHEAP oil, then no cheap imported Chinese toasters and all the other shoddy crap. Hey! That’s a good thing! — Except, American factories are now empty, rusted-out, stripped-of-equipment hulks. To restart them may take money we can’t get. Which means shortages. Shortages panic people. Panicked people do foolhardy, destructive things.
Hey, Analog man,
Still haven’t heard if she’s accepted. The animation dept. takes only 10 a year. Looking at BYU Idaho / creative writing. Maybe wait til little brother graduates high school next year, send her to film school in Denver along with brother to go to Colo School of Mines.
THANKS!
“there is going to be some kind of mythical ‘collapse’ and, naturally, Whites are going to get back the power”
Well obviously the “naturally” part is stupid. The only good thing about a collapse is if it provides an opportunity. Nothing good will come of the opportunity unless people make it happen.
Brazil has never collapsed because it never reached a level to collapse from. A collapse is something like Germany in the 20s. You have to be going down from a previous high point for people to lose faith in their current leadership and it only provides a temporary opportunity.
It’s not mythical. It’s inevitable. Any rich nation that reaches the point of “Too Many Jews” will collapse within a hundred years or so from that point in time unless they expel jews first. Their whole strategy revolves around a) sucking out all a nation’s capital and concentrating it among jews and b) working ceaselessly to spread division among the non-jewish population. There are only two outcomes to that strategy: expulsion or collapse.
The expulsion never happened because of the power of television as a form of social control so now we’re in the collapse. It won’t be overnight. The world powers will try and slow it down so it is much more likely to be a series of step-collapses over decades and there are no guaranteed outcomes unless people take full advantage of the opportunity. But during this time when people are losing faith in their leaders that is the time to get as active as possible as they are going to be more open to suggestion.
I’d suggest as this unfolds to a) particularly attack the banking system running a global Ponzi scheme to enrich themselves and not caring about the effect on the citizens and b) link that to the political class being corrupt puppets of a globalist elite.
Dingobob
“As an added thought, instead of what if scenarios, another option is historical scenarios. Katrina and New Orleans, LA Riots and so on.”
Yes. The only games i’ve ever modded are strategy games but i guess you could do something similar there.
The problem with the whole “collapse” theology is that its millenialist. How long have “believers” been waiting for armageddon? Yeah. Exactly. Not that there haven’t been catastrophes. And some groups have used them to seize power. But if one thinks they can wait until the catastrophe and all the dominoes will just fall into place they are deluded. Its “escapism”. It’s a way to avoid taking responsibility and doing something right now. And doing something is such hard work. And boring, too. Who wants to actually put forth any real effort when they can sit around talking about the end of the world when everyone will suddently wake up? Yeah. That worked great in S Africa. And it will work just as good here, too.
My recommendation is to forget this millenialist bs and do something right now. Meet at Denny’s a couple of times per month. Have barbecues and picnics. Maybe even a dance. It may not be much but its more than most people are doing now. And the first time someone shows up ranting radical nonsense kick them out. Yeah. I’m sure there are plenty of people who don’t like that advice. But what have radicals ever done but drive sensible people away?
Fred,
The housing bubble bursting and the collapse of Lehman Brothers was not millenialist fantasy. Even the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times are saying stuff that 10 years ago would have been laughed off as “millenialist religious nut silliness.” The New York Times wrote an article about SWPL families that are preparing their kids for the possibility that their won’t be any college.
Just because I’m still alive, doesn’t mean I’m immortal. Your fallacy is “it hasn’t happened yet despite being predicted, ergo it won’t happen.” Well, I can predict with certainty that I will die someday. If I wake up alive tomorrow, does that disprove it?
I live in New England which has a lot of complacent, atomized, unfriendly people who have no plans to say hi to their neighbor, much less build a “resilient community.” However, I did find a predominantly White resilient community here in New England which is healthy and optimistic, and yet also prepared for collapse. I am also networked with the prickly locals who are woefully unprepared but hold the local levers of power.
All of this because, even though I am quite fanatical, I conceal my beliefs. It’s actually a good thing to conceal your beliefs. It’s like wearing clothes. Letting your true fanaticism hang out is considered “indecent exposure,” albeit political speech is constitutionally protected.
I recently met an upper middle class, highly educated race realist who was probably not fully illuminated on the JQ. I let him talk, supported what he was saying, and amplified by telling tragic stories of multiculturalism from the perspective of a naive observer. But I didn’t breathe Piercean fire. Instead, I worked to stoke the fire of my interlocutor with my stories. I appealed to his sense of protectiveness. I told him about the Nushawn Williams case, and talked like a disillusioned liberal “I was outraged that they didn’t protect those poor schoolgirls from that AIDS infected sexual predator, and it really made me disillusioned with the whole “civil rights’ narrative. If ‘Civil Rights’ means some black guy can infect 13 white schoolgirls with AIDS, I would call them “civil infringements’ rather than ‘civil rights.'”
But that’s because I haven’t let myself be labeled with a scarlet H (hater), or a scarlet WS (white supremacist) or a scarlet NN (neo-nazi). I practice Taqqiyah, and encourage it:
Taqiyya, or not showing their faith openly by means of pretense, dissimulation, or concealment, is a special type of LYING which is taught and used by Shi’a Muslims, cf. Sunni Muslims and Taqiyya. “Taqiyya” (or taqiyyah) is related to the terms “taqwa'” and “taqi'” – all have the root meaning of “guarding” something, in this case, the Islamic faith.
This practice, along with the practice of Kithman, or concealing their faith from non-Shi’as, were, and are many places today, a method of self-preservation for the Shi’a community. Historically, the Shiites have been in the minority and have been persecuted by Sunni Muslims who considered them heretics. Shi’as are often persecuted today in Pakistan and Afghanistan and Sunni-Shi’a violence is fairly common. Sunnis would often attempt to force Shi’as to curse the House of Ali – believing that no devout Shiite could commit such an act. As a result of this persecution, the idea of taqiyya emerged. In other words, if a Shi’a Muslim’s life is in danger, he may lie as long as he holds true to Ali in his heart.
Shi’as believe that the origin of this line of defence comes from the Qur’an. When Moses returned from the mountain and saw his people worshiping the golden calf, he was understandably angry and asked his brother Aaron why he allowed such a terrible sin to be committed. The Qur’an tells us
When Moses came back to his people, angry and grieved, he said: “Evil it is that ye have done in my place in my absence: did ye make haste to bring on the judgment of your Lord?” He put down the tablets, seized his brother by (the hair of) his head, and dragged him to him. Aaron said: “Son of my mother! the people did indeed reckon me as naught, and went near to slaying me! Make not the enemies rejoice over my misfortune, nor count thou me amongst the people of sin.” Moses prayed: “O my Lord! forgive me and my brother! admit us to Thy mercy! for Thou art the Most Merciful of those who show mercy!” Sura 7:150-151
Thanks for the post, I enjoyed reading it.
@Hail: probably decades.
@Barb: I am not an engineer, my background is as a peon and some experience as a “tool pusher” (low level supervisor), so I’m not a high-level expert. I have no experience with N.D. but I’ve heard that some rock formations are a pain in the butt.
I know that we used to dream of a life where the crude was just below a thin layer that only needed a light “tap” to crack and then the gaslayer would be just strong enough to push it up (no blowouts *shudder*), and preferably keep pushing at exactly the right pressure. No need for H@lliburton to come frackin’, no need for aquifer water. That easy going never happened. 🙂
I take your point about the cheap part, though. I couldn’t tell you where the “pain point” is on the price scale and you’re right in the general sense, no doubt. I just think the thought of immediate disaster is highly exaggerated.
Regarding the Collapse: The question is not How will the Collapse come to pass. The Question is How can the Rulers avoid a collapse? The wealthy and powerful nation of fifty years ago is gone. Where is the industry that once manufactured half the products in the world? Where are the shipbuilders and shoemakers?
Look at the cities given over to Darks, violent and ignorant. Will the coming Black and Brown majority keep the lights on and the water flowing? Will they leave Whites in peace?
We already know that we will not receive what we were promised by Social Security, Medicare, and government or private pensions. Will the Chinese impoverish themselves to make up those shortfalls? Will the Darks pay for it?
Our education system is given over to providing day care for Darks, teaching hatred towards Whites and our culture, training smart Whites to be glorified clerks and secretaries, and grooming Orientals and Hindus to become scientists and engineers. Who needs all those clerks?
Name your coming crisis, be it economic, environmental, educational, or any other category, and tell me how the current regime might possibly handle it? The only tools in their box are borrowing or printing money, and propaganda. How long can a Ponzi scheme last?
“I just think the thought of immediate disaster is highly exaggerated.”
I’ve been reading about Peak Oil since 2004. Frankly what’s going on now is just about perfectly in line what the early doomers like Matt Simmons and Stephen Leeb warned about.
Matt Simmons wrote a book, Twilight in the Desert, in 2002, I think, that presented evidence that the Saudis have been LYING about their reserves for the last 40 years, since the initiation of OPEC and its rules that production be proportional to stated reserves. Sauds been claiming they’ve got reserves of over 100 million barrels — for the last 40 years, despite constant production of 8 million barrels a day, with no appreciable drilling /discoveries.
When Ghawar, the world’s largest known easily-recoverable supergiant oil field, peaks, it’s World Peak. Looks now like Ghawar peaked in 2006.
We got the first massive run-up in oil prices in 08. That price spike initiated the mortgage meltdown, which led to the bank bailouts and our current woes. So, that’s our foreseeable future: Price spikes due to panic in temporary shortages when world economies are doing better, with the resultant crashes / then recovery / then crash / recovery / crash, etc., but the direction is DOWN. Like relapsing-remitting MS. So, recent history has already shown, the pain-price point is gas at $4 a gal.
We should operate on the assumption that there won’t be a collapse. At the same time, it would be prudent to prepare for foreseeable disaster scenarios like a dollar collapse or Peak Oil.
In particular, I think Kievsky has the right idea with organic gardening. That’s a good example of spending time productively and learning a useful skill that could one day come in handy.
“Sauds been claiming they’ve got reserves of over 100 million barrels — for the last 40 years, despite constant production of 8 million barrels a day”
Ehhh, that should be reserves of over 100 BILLION barrels, despite constant production of 8 million barrels a day.
@Barb; yeah, I was doing “40×8” in my head a few times, before I figured that you’d misspoken. 🙂 I may be slow, but I’m thorough.
I’m still not sure that there will be a quick fall, but the $4/gallon figure about checks from my personal experience, and I work very close to my home, at that. I remember having to start some serious logistical planning in order to fit any trips longer than a few miles into a sensible pattern to save gas. Not good times.
The housing bubble bursting and the collapse of Lehman Brothers was not millenialist fantasy. Even the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times are saying stuff that 10 years ago would have been laughed off as “millenialist religious nut silliness.”
Yeah. Things have shifted quite a bit. And the millenialists are still laughed at like the clowns they are.
Haha. He either didn’t read this thread and used a stock-response, or opened multiple threads and responded to the wrong one! There is nothing in this one, at all, (for once), about “Demographics [Alone] Causing The Collapse”.
Firstly, I was responding to (well, affirming) ATBOTL’s general point about “collapse,” so there was “something” in this thread, rather than nothing “at all.” It wasn’t I who veered the discussion away from the specific issue of Peak Oil so your attempt to discredit my point by calling it a “stock-response” is as forced as your laugh.
Secondly, you yourself essentially acknowledge (“for once”…”[Alone]”) that collapserian scenarios always come back to demographics — collapse; in some way attribute it to changed demographics; then assert the impossibility of recovery to previous standards because of those changed demographics. That line of argument has been par for the course for decades.
Anyway, back to peak oil. So what if the present economy is “based on CHEAP oil”? People (ie “the economy”) will readjust. Old skills can be relearned. Factories can be reopened. Et cetera. Those aren’t insurmountable problems. The real problem is a country full of niggerlovers which refuses to so much as consider alternative views to the “whites must be criticized, jews must not be criticized, blacks will love you and behave better if you denounce your own race, more immigration is an absolute must” standard.
Silver: If the current levels social and economic achievement can be maintained in a multicultural society, then we racists are wrong. Any collapse will be, in part, caused by abandoning our traditional American racism. If there is no collapse, we will be nothing more than a footnote to history, interesting only to specialists who will earn PhDs by decyphering the meaning of SWPL.
I see a future collapse as proof that the present trends are not working, thereby forcing Whites to look again at what they’ve been doing. We will have to choose between Niggerloving and survival. The factories can be rebuilt, the skills relearned, old technologies can be updated, but not by Darks. Whites who want to live will figure that out.
Hunter Wallace says:
November 26, 2010 at 5:08 pm
Questions dying to be answered …
(1) Will Martin Lindstedt now emerge as the Aryan warlord of SW Missouri?
Yes.
(2) How many whigger ass clowns will become serfs in his fiefdom?
A lot.
Maybe this is God’s way of punishing America for electing a black president? We need to spread that meme … if this pans out.
Now THAT is a plan. Much better than disparaging religion altogether, as the clowns at VNN like to do.
“there is going to be some kind of mythical ‘collapse’ and, naturally, Whites are going to get back the power”
Well obviously the “naturally” part is stupid. The only good thing about a collapse is if it provides an opportunity. Nothing good will come of the opportunity unless people make it happen.
Brazil has never collapsed because it never reached a level to collapse from. A collapse is something like Germany in the 20s. You have to be going down from a previous high point for people to lose faith in their current leadership and it only provides a temporary opportunity. – Wandrin
—
Just remember something about how epic collapses happened in the past to great and mighty White countires and civilizations — particularly Germany and the Czarist Russian Empire — was through WAR, wars that they foolishly got involved in, to no real or tangible benefit to their respective countires, or to themselves as Leaders/Sovereigns.
As some great thinker once said: “War is a ‘harvest of sorrow”.
Voice of logic, sanity and common sense Sergei Witte (1849-1915) member of the Russian State Council, urged Nicolas II (who, interestingly enough was the first cousin to Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm, both of whom were the grandson’s of Queen Victoria) that Russia should stay out of the war. His assessment of the impending conflict was –
I prefer to remain silent as to what we may expect in the case of our defeat.
We all certainly are well aware of what happened to Russia, and the GENOCIDE of her people thanks to WW1: THE BOLSHEVIK ‘REVOLUTION’.
*Let’s hope that our People will not get neoCONNED again into another war for the interests of another race of people — further compounding the Dispossession of the historic American Majority.
“Just remember something about how epic collapses happened in the past to great and mighty White countires and civilizations — particularly Germany and the Czarist Russian Empire — was through WAR”
This is true, however underneath that is a more general point about a) debt and b) people losing faith in their leaders. War, or at least losing a war has a habit of doing both with the second being the most critical.
Great post, Langobard.
Great post, Langobard.
Thank you kindly, Denise.
“Just remember something about how epic collapses happened in the past to great and mighty White countires and civilizations — particularly Germany and the Czarist Russian Empire — was through WAR”
This is true, however underneath that is a more general point about a) debt and b) people losing faith in their leaders. War, or at least losing a war has a habit of doing both with the second being the most critical. – Wandrin
Denise and Wandrin – If either of you want an interesting read on the matter of how even the mightiest Leaders and Sovereigns of the White, European world have been duped, tricked and fooled into doing the, um, most ‘maladaptive’ things against the long-term interests of their race and Peoples, be sure to read King, Kaiser, Tsar: Three Royal Cousins Who Led the World to War.
http://www.amazon.com/King-Kaiser-Tsar-Three-Cousins/dp/0802716237
It definately has an obvious bias against German Emperor (“Deutscher Kaiser und König von Preußen” – King of Prussia) Wilhelm II, but is overall a pretty balanced read.
The most heart-breaking part of the book, of course, was the murder and regicide of ‘Nicky’ (Czar Nicholas) and his beautiful family, while his cousin-royals in Germany and England were lied to by their respective political establishments on his actual fate in Bolshevik captivity, not properly understanding the genocidal and utterly evil nature (again, due to being largely deceived) of his Soviet captors. (David Lloyd George in Britain – and Max Warburg, one of the principlal bankster-‘advisor’ to Wilhelm in Germany and – unbelievably – the unofficial head of the ‘German Secret Service’.)
Wilhelm almost fell into a similar grisly fate with the Kiel mutinies and other Soviet/Bolshevik inspired ‘uprisings’ in Germany, but at the last minute, on a trip to the front at German military headquarters at Spa near the border, luckily was granted exile by the Dutch government, where he spent the rest of his life at the Huis Doorn, near Utrecht, in the Netherlands.
Again, as Russian Minister Sergei Witte so omniously and forebodingly forwarned before the start of that conflict… “it means not only the end of the German and Austrian Empires, but the proclamation of republics throughout of central Europe. I prefer to remain silent as to what we may expect in the case of our defeat.
–
It definately has an obvious bias against German Emperor (“Deutscher Kaiser und König von Preußen” – King of Prussia) Wilhelm II, but is overall a pretty balanced read.
—
Here is a review in the ‘Christian’ Science Monitor of King, Kaiser, and Tsar, which while biased and Germany, but overall, like the book, is fairly balanced –
The world is still paying the price for their hubris.
Correction: “The White world is still paying the price for their hubris.
And if those three men could have been so tragically fooled, what does it say for our current crop of prostitute-politician “leaders” — and no doubt, OURSELVES??
Langobard
“be sure to read King, Kaiser, Tsar: Three Royal Cousins Who Led the World to War.”
Ty for the tip. I’ll check it out.
Waste? Yeah, since R&D on that has been discouraged/banned, not much progress has been made. If that had not been, we’d be neutralizing (not just storing) the waste already.
They spent billions getting Yucca Mountain ready, fighting red tape thrown in their faces by pinkos for decades and then The Magic Negro cancelled Yucca Mountain a few months after usurping the presidency the same way he cancelled the space program. There is a million years worth of Uranium power in the continental US if we wish to go that route, there would be changes in the way transportation works, but in a world without millions of useless, degenerate dummies to support, life would go on at a decent level.