Malthusian World
As I mentioned in the comments, Richard Heinberg speculates that slavery might be restored in his book Peak Everything:
“In the U.S., as recently as 1850, domesticated animals – horses, oxen, and mules – were responsible for over two-thirds of physical work supporting the economy. Today the percentage is negligible: virtually all work is done by fuel-fed machines. Slavery was a strategy for capturing human muscle power, and the end of most formal slavery during the 19th century was more or less inevitable when Class D tools became cheaper than human slaves – or domesticated animals, for that matter. …
The extraction of coal, and especially of oil and natural gas – substances representing millions of years of accumulation of past biotic energy – has often provided a spectacular net energy profit. With fossil fuels and modern machinery, only 2 percent of the population now needs to farm in order to support the rest of society, enabling the flourishing of a growing middle class composed of dizzying array of specialists.
Increasing specialization was also enabled by a flourishing of different types of machines, and over the past few decades that differentiation was itself in turn fueled (quite literally) by the availability of cheap energy to make the machines go … These tools were, in a sense, alive: they consumed a kind of food, in the form of coal or oil, and had their own internal metabolism. …
That scale is difficult to comprehend without using familiar examples. Think for a moment of the effort required to push, for only a few feet, an automobile that has run out of gas. Now imagine pushing it 20 miles. This is, of course, the service provided by a single gallon of gasoline, which contains the energy equivalent to at least six weeks of human labor (much more than this by some accounts). The amount of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene fuels used in the U.S. in one day has the energy equivalent of roughly 20,000,000 person/years of work. If the building of the Great Pyramid required 10,000 people working for 20 years, then the petroleum based energy used in the US on an average day could – in principle, given the necessary stone and machinery – build 100 Great Pyramids. Of course, we don’t use our oil for this purpose: instead we use it mostly to push millions of metal cars along roadways so that we can get to and from jobs, malls, restaurants, and video rental stores …
If Class D tools fueled by cheap oil eliminated drudgery, life without abundant extrasomatic energy will imply more labor – certainly for food production. The return of slavery is a frighteningly real possibility. Such nightmare scenarios can only be averted by careful, hard, cooperative work.”
http://m.good.is/post/can-social-media-end-modern-slavery/
it never ended.
The return of slavery is a frighteningly real possibility.
Slavery never really went away, at least not in Africa and the Middle East, but that’s another issue altogether.
Should we assume that Richard Heinberg is a member of the same tribe as his pal JH Kunstler? Maybe he’s hoping that the lumpen white goyim will be enslaved by an enlightened elite of Peak Oil cultists like himself, Kunstler and George “Moonbat” Monbiot. Hey, toiling in the fields for free is the least we can do for our “chosen” ecological betters. Where do I sign up?
Meanwhile back in the real world, global oil supply reached a record high in May, 2012, with production levels of 91.1 million barrels per day (mb/d). This is up from less than 85 mb/d in the first quarter of 2009.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
So we know that oil production is rising, not falling, and is expected to continue rising substantially over the next decade.
We know that proven oil reserves grew by an astonishing 50%, or more than 500 billion barrels, between 1991 and 2011.
We know that oil prices have fallen by more than 40% from their all-time high, and most observers expect them to fall further.
We know that even conventional oil production is growing in certain jurisdictions, such as Alberta.
But we’re supposed to believe that such a crippling shortage of oil is just around the corner that the return of slavery is a “frighteningly real possibility”, “certainly for food production”??? OK now I’m scared.
Oh wait, luckily Heinberg heads a think tank called the Post Carbon Institute, where “such nightmare scenarios can be averted by careful, hard, cooperative work”. And they accept donations! So you know what to do folks: Dig deep, unless you want to be like some pale Kunta Kinte slaving away in the oil-free world of the near future.
Give it up, Hunter.
“IEA says oil production is rising.”
The same org that as late as 2009 was saying obstinately saying Peak Oil in 20 years, no problemo, it’s all just silly chicken-little-ing, you people are nuts, pooh-poohed everything ASPO showed them.
Then they came out in 2010 and said, oh, btw, Peak OIl was 2006.
Yeah, THOSE guys deserve a lot of credibility, yeah, sure.
I don’t think so.
It is also doubtful that goyim would end up as slaves on the basis of a forecast: if the forecast is inaccurate, then life will continue as before, but if there is merit to the pessimist view, that fuel intensive industrial agriculture will fail over time.
“Should we assume that Richard Heinberg is a member of the same tribe as his pal JH Kunstler?”
M. King Hubbert (Hubbert’s Peak) Shell Oil geologist, who predicted in 1950 American peak oil production 1970 — spot on– and world peak 2000 — off by 6 years — was no jew.
Matt Simmons of Simmons Int’l, a long time leading energy industry investment banker who wrote Twilight in the Desert, proving the Sauds have far far fewer reserves than they’ve been claiming for the last 20 years, was no jew.
Hunter, did we not have this exact same conversation with Jeppo already?
Could you ban him? He’s a disinformation troll.
Colin Campbell, founder of the American Society for the Study of Peak Oil, ASPO,
http://www.peakoil.net/ is no jew.
Facts are facts, even when the jews say ’em.
This guy, Zapata George Blake, long time oil patch guy, turned energy investment counselor, is no jew.
(1) Conventional oil production peaked in 2005/2006 and has plateaued ever since.
(2) To my knowledge, no one has claimed that Peak Oil would produce anything other than volatility in oil markets. Demand destruction will cause the price of oil to collapse.
(3) Aren’t we in the fourth year of a depression?
(4) The economy attempted to rev back up in 2011 and earlier this year. In both cases, the price of oil shot back up and the economy slowed down again.
(5) If conventional oil production has flatlined, perhaps will can contribute the increase in global oil production to unconventional deposits which are inferior, less concentrated, and less profitable to e extract?
(6) Canadian conventional oil production peaked decades ago. The Alberta ref sands are not conventional oil.
(7) 2/3rds of the oil used in the U.S. comes from overseas exports.
(8) Let’s see what happens when overseas and especially non-OPEC producers cannibalize their own production.
I looked into Heinberg’s possible Jewishness but could find no evidence of it.
BTW, I posted this thread mainly to antagonize Joe.
OT but it’s amazing that no ripperologist thought about black suspects.
There’s a book there.
Black The Ripper. Equiano Unchained.
barb,
New talking point: Daniel Yergin is a Jew.
http://www.jinfo.org/Pulitzer_Non-Fiction.html
By what measure?
Eyeballing this chart the average price of crude was the same in the first quarter of 2011 as in the last quarter (~$100). Annualized First Quarter growth in 2011 was indeed low, 0.4%; but annualized Fourth Quarter growth was a healthy 3.0%. Link (Scroll to “Table 1”)
The unemployment rate decreased throughout 2011 and, technically, has continued to in 2012, although it would best be described a flatlining.
All in all, not what I’d consider signs impending doom.
“barb,
New talking point: Daniel Yergin is a Jew.”
Oh, man, Hunter, I did not know that! But it’s so not surprising, eh?
Canadian conventional oil production peaked decades ago.
“In its annual look at the province’s reserves and production expectations, the board also said that conventional oil production in 2011 rose 7 per cent from the previous year to an average 490,000 bpd. It was the first rise in conventional oil output since 1995 and came on higher production from horizontal wells, the board said.”
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Alberta+expects+rise+oilsands+production/6813272/story.html
To my knowledge, no one has claimed that Peak Oil would produce anything other than volatility in oil markets.
Except for Richard Heinberg apparently, who has laughably claimed that “the return of slavery is a frighteningly real possibility” in his Peak Oil scenario.
The same org that as late as 2009 was saying obstinately saying Peak Oil in 20 years, no problemo, it’s all just silly chicken-little-ing, you people are nuts, pooh-poohed everything ASPO showed them.
The IAE’s graph shows that global oil supply has grown from under 85 mb/d in 2009 to more than 91 mb/d now. Do you have any information showing that these numbers are false? Didn’t think so.
Hunter, did we not have this exact same conversation with Jeppo already?
Could you ban him? He’s a disinformation troll.
What are you talking about? I’ve sourced every bit of information that I’ve provided in this ongoing conversation. You can go back to previous threads to find them for yourself. Let me repeat:
We know that oil production is rising, not falling, and is expected to continue rising substantially over the next decade.
We know that proven oil reserves grew by an astonishing 50%, or more than 500 billion barrels, between 1991 and 2011.
We know that oil prices have fallen by more than 40% from their all-time high, and most observers expect them to fall further.
We know that even conventional oil production is growing in certain jurisdictions, such as Alberta.
These are FACTS. Maybe you think that oil production is declining, that reserves are shrinking, that prices are at an all-time high, and that conventional production is down everywhere, but those would be your OPINIONS. And they would be wrong.
Face it, Peak Oil is bunk.
silver,
The price of crude hit $147 a barrel at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. Then it collapsed. In early 2011, crude surged over $120 and has been back over $120 a barrel since then.
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/5-year/
I believe we are now under $100 though
Yep.
Canadian conventional oil production peaked in 1973.
jeppo,
Heinberg and Kunstler both predict volatility in oil markets due to demand destruction. This is what produces the contractive depression that was anticipated about a decade ago.
“The IAE’s graph shows that global oil supply has grown from under 85 mb/d in 2009 to more than 91 mb/d now. Do you have any information showing that these numbers are false? Didn’t think so”
Anyone can draw a graph. IEA stepped on its own –erm– about Peak Oil. They have no credibility with me. You give me a better source, I might buy it.
The U.S., Canada, and Mexico are all past peak in conventional oil production – Mead’s North American energy superpower?
According to the IEA, Peak Oil was reached in 2006.
As barb says, the IEA was previously known for its ridiculously optimistic forecasts.
Doesn’t matter. Despite what the leftards say, nuclear power is safe and effective. They don’t want it to be safe because it clashes with their decentralized, sustainable endgame of subsistence agriculture.
With abundant nuclear energy, we can synthesize ammonia as fuel. Currently ammonia is synthesized using natural gas for heat and hydrogen, but that can easily be replaced as soon as natgas becomes more expensive.
Eventually, the spics that pic tomatoes for 5¢ a bushel will be replaced by robots. The big factor that’s holding that back is computer vision still isn’t good enough.
I guess what I’m trying to say is, a nigger is obsolete farm equipment, and just because we’re running out of one fuel source doesn’t mean the march of technological progress will end (the march of social progress, on the other hand, is a myth).
Eventually, there will be no jobs left in a society driven by white innovation that niggers can even do.
Hey Jeppo, it’s a fact that the amount of oil in the ground is finite. So’s the amount of uranium and thorium in the ground, but there’s hella more of that stuff. Yes, the amount of oil that can be economically recovered changes with advancing extraction. Doesn’t mean there’s infinite oil.
The planet is quite finite, and many resources are peaking at once; water (the Oglalla aquifer), soil base in the Midwest, phosphorus. You can have your fossil fuel debates. The system is about more than fossil fuels, more than about energy. Even if we discovered infinite energy, the planet is still finite. Malthusian doom is inevitable.
Hunter isn’t telling people to swear off modernity and go live in teh woods like Amish. He’s just saying to be ready for the possibility of Malthusian doom. That’s all I say, that’s all Barb is saying. We are saying it’s a distinct possibility.
Even just economic mismanagement doom is already happening. It’s very difficult to get a job with a living wage now. That’s at least doom on training wheels. that’s doom for beginners. Do you think things will “boom” again? It’s possible, though booms are always temporary. If we get another boom, take advantage of out and get out early, and be ready to take advantage of the bust that follows.
This year — 2012, I know people who are experiencing hunger and impoverishment and are losing faith in the System. It’s happening now. It’s no longer in the future.
“Heinberg and Kunstler both predict volatility in oil markets due to demand destruction.”
So did Stephen Leeb (jew, I know) in his book the Oil Factor.
If oil rises 20% year over year, you get inflation, including rising stock prices.
If oil spikes double over the price a year ago, you get a price-spike induced crash, and then recovery.
So far his rule of thumb has been pretty good.
Oil, coal, uranium, etc are all energy storage mechanisms from other processes, namely the sun. We won’t run out of such things, but dirt cheap energy is over. That said, we can do a fair bit better job of harnessing solar power than we could in 1850, and that will set the ceiling on the cost of energy.
“Despite what the leftards say, nuclear power is safe and effective. ” – For my part I’d rather see our nuclear material reserved for military and space applications. burning uranium to light up a home seems like such a waste.
Well gosh, thanks for sharing this breaking information. I had no idea! Lol.
The point is you attempted to connect high oil prices to slower economic growth. So the fact that the average price (the average price Hunter, the average) was roughly the same during Quarters I and IV while annualized growth was very low during QI and reasonably high during QIV tends to rebut this contention of yours.
Anon,
Dirt cheap energy has been over for forty years, so what?
Lol, if it wasn’t for immigration the populations of the most advanced countries would be shrinking, you goof. (Rest of the world not there yet but on a similar trajectory.) How the fuck would Malthusian doom occur then? Or did you just use it cos it sounds so sophisticatedly sinister?
Silver,
The economy did start to recover in early 2011. There were a couple of good monthly job reports. There was some relief in the MSM that the economy was coming back.
The price of oil shot up over $100 a barrel. It even shot past $120 a barrel. We came pretty close to breaking the 2008 record. Gas prices shot up accordingly.
What happened? After a prolonged period of high gas prices, the uptick in the economy fizzled out. Now the price of oil and gas has gone back down again.
Here’s the five year chart:
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=5y
Notice the two crunches in 2011 and 2012.
@Hunter Wallace
You have succeeded in antagonising me. You’ve done very well. I like that. You know the “peak oil” subject riles me up every time. Still, I figure I started enough trouble for one day. I thought it best not to shoot off any opinions, at least not until tomorrow. Plus, I gotta’ rest up for tomorrow’s boxing match(es). It’s been a rough day. I’m reading the thread of commentary and actually enjoying what everyone has to say ( though, of course, as any truly informed person knows, oil is abiotic).
I like Occidental Dissent. I always learn something new here everyday. I appreciate that. I appreciate your time and work . I respectfully disagree with you on certain matters, but I do appreciate Occidental Dissent. I’ve learned alot since finding your website about 3 months ago.
It’s an open playing field in my comment threads – those who disagree are free to do.so, if a comment doesn’t show up, it has tripped the filter.
Silver,
oil is in everything. You need it to make plastics; even if the item is metal, the packaging is plastic. You need oil to move the goods to the store, you need oil to move the employees to the workplace and back home, etc.
When the price of oil goes up, it affects the bottom line of everyone.
A price spike does things like this:
Take a guy, call him Sam, who lives in, say, a house with a $1500 mortgage. Say he makes $60 k a year, take home of $3500 / mon. Let’s say he’s got an SUV that gets 15 miles to the gallon and a round trip commute of 30 miles per day.
He needs 2 gals. to get to work every day (44 gals per month). When gas was a dollar a gal., his commute cost was $44 a month.
When gas shot to $5 he now spends $220 month.
This is a guy who only has 2K a month after mortgage for everything else, food, utilities, insurance, clothes, SUV pmt, upkeep on the house, credit card debt, fun, savings. This guy is living on the edge, living paycheck to paycheck. Probably often makes just the min on cc pmts, cc’s are maxed out, maybe has no money in savings at all. Maybe he’s lying awake at night thinking about who he can stall till the tax refund comes.
That 180 bux more for gas is GROCERY MONEY. Holy cats. AND, the prices at the grocery store have gone up too. He is in critically bad shape here now and desperately needs a break.
Say the break doesn’t come. If Sam gets hit with ANYTHING unexpected, car breaks down, plumbing problem, whatever, he’s sunk. He can’t NOT fill the SUV because he’s got to go to work. He can’t NOT buy groceries. The only thing left is send the house keys back to the bank, default on his mortgage.
With the housing bubble in the early 2000s, there were a vast number of folks in exactly those straits. All those folks for whom there simply was not room in the budget to spend an extra hundred bux a month on gas, even for a short while. For those folks on the edge, it doesn’t take long at all for a gas price spike to destroy them financially.
All those mortgage foreclosures that resulted from the 2008 gas spike started a downward, self-reinforcing spiral that KILLED the economy. Many mortgage foreclosures at once means prices get driven down because too many houses on the market spooks buyers. No buyers, no new houses built, so layoffs of construction workers, realtors out of work, Home Depot sales down, large appliance sales down, eventually nearly every sector is laying off workers. Banks crying to gov’t for a bailout.
So Sam, six months ago if he’d sold his house, he could have paid his mortgage off and been ok. But now he no longer can, since the buyers have all disappeared. So HE panics and takes what he can get. He’s got to cash in his 401K to pay the shortfall between what he sold for and what he owes. Or if the bank forgives some of his debt, he’s got to pay income taxes on the forgiven amount.
Sam and a million others like him, game over.
So that price spike caused a straight-down crash in the economy. Recovery takes far longer.
It matters not one whit to Sam that the price of gas eventually came back down to under 3 bux. The price spike ruined him. He’s lost his house. His credit is wrecked, so he can’t buy another. His 401 K is gone. He’s depressed.
For the guy living on the edge of his budget, which was the case for a whole lotta Americans in 2008, it’s not the average price of gas that matters at all. It’s the highest price.
Barb,
How much coal and natural gas is being used to process the Alberta tar sands? Any idea?
I don’t see it as a doomsday scenario – it implies the death of one living arrangement and the substitution of another.
There is nothing stopping us from moving large numbers of people around via rail, water, electric streetcars, horses, or smaller more fuel efficient vehicles. We could do that pretty easily if we had to.
If Kunstler and Heinberg are right, we’re on the cusp of the North American Middle Ages.
The demise of BRA. The breakup of the Union. The end of liberal democracy. The depopulation of big cities. The death of globalization. The end of feminism. The onset of racial conflict.
That’s the end of the world! Sounds more like good news.
We’ve talked before about how the political crisis affects the energy crisis:
http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jul/9/energy-department-sneaks-offshore-moratorium-past-/
WWhile the Obama administration was taking a victory lap last week after the 5-4 Supreme Court decision to uphold the president’s signature legislative accomplishment, Obamacare, the Interior Department was using the media black hole to release a much-awaited five-year plan for offshore drilling. That plan reinstitutes a 30-year moratorium on offshore energy exploration that will keep our most promising resources locked away until long after President Obama begins plans for his presidential library. Given the timing, it is clear that the self-described “all of the above” energy president didn’t want the American people to discover that he was denying access to nearly 98 percent of America’s vast energy potential on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS).
I’ve read in a couple of places that if we figured unemployment rate like we use to in the 70’s the rate today would be around 20%. And if we figured out inflation like we use to in the 70’s inflation would be around 5%.
Not such a rosy picture. I figure that one poster is probably an obama fan
From what I understand the USA has some of the words largest proven coal reserves. I don’t think we’ll be without electricity. Right now folks are down on coal and nuclear power but they won’t be if things get tough. Can you imagine women trying to do all the work our grandmothers did before all the kitchen appliances? Hell no they’ll be the 1st ones clamoring to build more nuke plants and dig more coal
Realistically there would be wars for oil etc before there be a reintroduction of slavery.
There are also more fuel economical ways of farming that would take off if oil prices climbed and stayed that high. I’m not up to speed on them but hear them discussed from time to time
Farming with critters is pretty damn inefficient and costly as well. Feeding them and proper medical care makes tractors look cheap. Then when you add the larger work capacity of a 60 horse power John Deere vs the cost of owning a team of draft horses or mules….
Uncle Sam’s solar eclipse:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jul/11/uncle-sams-solar-eclipse/
Federal funds can’t buy success under the sunAs much of the nation broils under the merciless July sun, the Obama administration can’t resist the urge to burn cash on “green” energy projects. Each time one of these solar-energy firms flames out, American taxpayers get singed. Even a sundial would indicate it’s quitting time. The latest to fail is Abound Solar, a Colorado solar-panel manufacturer. The firm filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation on July 2, two years after being awarded a $400 million stimulus loan guarantee.
“How much coal and natural gas is being used to process the Alberta tar sands? Any idea?”
I found this from last August:
“The rapid growth of Canada’s oil sands is expected to dramatically increase its consumption of natural gas over the coming decade, a prospect that stands to help Alberta’s gas industry but raise the country’s emissions.
A new estimate by Ziff Energy Group, a Calgary-based energy advisory, predicts that oil sands gas consumption will rise to three billion cubic feet (bcf) a day, up from 1.1 bcf today.”
“In 2009, the entire province of Alberta, which is the country’s biggest gas consumer, used 2.8 bcf a day. Canada as a whole burned 7.2 bcf ”
“Ziff based its calculation on a forecast that the oil sands will pump between 3.5 and 4 million barrels a day by 2020, up from 1.5 million today”
Okay, so tar sands is using 1.1 bcf of nat gas (half of all of Alberta’s usage, 1/7 of all Canada’s usage) to produce 1.5 million barrels of oil a day currently.
And:
“The other severe effect: emissions. On an energy basis, the Ziff calculation casts into stark terms the cost of producing the oil sands, where the thick bitumen can only be coaxed out of the earth with great effort.”
Here’s the “money shot.”
Three-billion cubic feet is the energy equivalent of 530,000 barrels per day – meaning that for every seven barrels of crude the oil sands industry produces, it will burn roughly a barrel of natural gas
And I’ve not yet added what the coal usage is. I’m still looking.
Hunter,
I’m interested in the raw numbers, not your impressions of the MSM. The raw numbers (which I linked to, but you appear to have ignored) state that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.4% in QI 2011. If you look at the chart of oil prices you linked to you will see that the oil price didn’t hit a local peak until QII 2011. During QI the average price (do you understand the concept) was roughly the same as the average price during QIV. Look at your own chart. Bring it down to 2 years (rather than 5 years) and you’ll see that the average price was roughly the same in QI and QIV (the average price, not the peak price during the quarter, since oil was purchased at all those prices, not merely the peak price). If growth was low during QI while growth was reasonable during QIV then the relationship to oil prices that you think exists suffers a blow.
Also, the economy started recovering during 2009 and continued to recover all throughout 2010. The recovery didn’t start in 2011.
Wrong. Look at your own damn charts and compare the quarterly growth numbers. Also, unemployment declined all throughout 2011; the decline didn’t “fizzle out” because oil went up or down. If the relationship was as strong as seem to think why has the decline in the unemployment rate stalled out this year while oil has plummeted from 110 to the 80s? My answer is simple: the relationship isn’t very strong (at these price ranges; if oil went to $300, different story).
Barb,
Yes, hence the recession/mini-depression. I didn’t sleep through the last five years, you know.
Yes, but recovery occurs, it is occurring. There are plenty of European countries whose per capita GDP already exceeds the peak they achieved before the recession. Your point of view seems to be that this time it’s final, there will be no recovery. I question both your evidence for this belief as well as your interpretation of that evidence.
Fair enough, but it obviously makes a difference with respect to the entire economy how long that peak price was being paid because not everyone lives at the absolute economic edge at which the slightest price rise will send them into an economic death spiral.
Here’s something to ponder.
I’ve seen projections that by 2030 the world will want 100 million barrels of oil a day.
Of that, Alberta tar sands, which is supposed to save us all, when fully ramped up will be making 4 million of those hundred million barrels wanted.
Meanwhile, Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, which now makes 5 million barrels a day and 2 billion cubic feet of natgas, will be steadily declining, as will all so many of the other supergiant fields of the world.
“Fair enough, but it obviously makes a difference with respect to the entire economy how long that peak price was being paid because not everyone lives at the absolute economic edge at which the slightest price rise will send them into an economic death spiral.”
Ah, but because manufacturing has been gutted by offshoring to China, the housing boom was very nearly the only significant driver of U.S. economy left. That’s why this housing downturn hurt so much worse than all the others we’ve had prior.
“Yes, hence the recession/mini-depression”
Mini depression?
John Williams at Shadow Gov’t Statistics, who calculates unemployment the way the gov’t used to in the ’70s (before they started tweaking how they counted, in order to conceal the bitter truth) says unemployment is 22%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/
22% ranks right up there with estimates in the Great Depression.
“Your point of view seems to be that this time it’s final, there will be no recovery. I question both your evidence for this belief as well as your interpretation of that evidence.”
Well, there will be recoveries after each price spike. But each recovery will top out at a lower high than the previous, when demand again bumps up against the new, continuing lower oil supply level and causes another demand-destroying oil price spike and subsequent econ downturn.
It will chart out like a jagged sawblade tilted down from top left to lower right.
Silver is a Jew.
Just joking man. I’m out drinking. Get back to you tomorrow.