The Horserace – November 2, 2016

November 2, 2016 Hunter Wallace Politics 46

National Polls

LA Times – Trump +5.4
People’s Pundit Daily – Trump +2.6
UPI/Cvoter – Tie
IBD/TIPP – Tie (+Trump 0.2 – 2-way), Tie (Trump 0.4 – 4-way)
Rasmussen – Tie
ABC Tracking – Hillary +1 (2-way), Tie (4-way)
Google Consumer Surveys – Hillary +3
The Economist/YouGov – Hillary +3
NOLA/Lucid – Hillary +3
Reuters/Ipsos – Hillary +6

State Polls

Wisconsin – Marquette – Hillary +6 (4-way)

Pennsylvania – CNN – Hillary +4 (4-way)
Pennsylvania – Monmouth – Hillary +4 (4-way)
Pennsylvania – Susquehanna – Hillary +2 (4-way)
Pennsylvania – Quinnipiac – Hillary +5 (3-way)

Nevada – CNN – Trump +6 (3-way)
Nevada – JMC Analytics – Tie (3-way)

Michigan – FOX Detroit – Hillary +3 (4-way)
Michigan – New Strategic National – Hillary +1 (3-way)

Georgia – Emerson – Trump +9 (4-way)

Missouri – Emerson – Trump +15 (3-way)

Arizona – Emerson – Trump +4 (3-way)
Arizona – CNN – Trump +5 (4-way)

Colorado – Emerson – Hillary +3 (4-way)

Oregon – FOX 12 – Hillary +7 (4-way)

Arkansas – The Arkansas Poll – Trump +26 (2-way)

Virginia – Winthrop – Hillary +5 (3-way)
Virginia – Hampton University – Trump +3

North Carolina – Quinnipiac – Hillary +3 (3-way)

Ohio – Trafalgar – Trump +5 (4-way)
Ohio – Quinnipiac – Trump +5 (3-way)

Florida – Trafalgar – Trump +4 (4-way)
Florida – CNN – Hillary +2 (4-way)
Florida – Quinnipiac – Hillary +1 (3-way)

Reading The Tea Leaves

Notice the trend in the state polls which are starting to come out –>

Trump +7 in NC
Trump +7 in GA
Trump +14 in MO
Trump +13 in TX
Trump +4 in AZ
Trump +11 in IN
Hillary +7 in OR

What’s next? Trump +7 in NC and Hillary +7 in OR makes you wonder.

Note: This was next:

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46 Comments

  1. Romney won TX by 15 in 2012, so that poll is in line.

    Trump should not accept defeat, we need to speak with one voice and call upon him to carry the fight. Two nations conducting one election is bullshit.

    • I don’t know anything about Sam Wang’s outfit but the Huffington Post, Daily Kos, and NYT are viruently anti-Trump.

      Predict wise is the product of a fellow named (((David Rothschild))).

      So, Silver giving better odds of a Trump victory than that bunch is not exactly noteworthy.

      Rothschild:

      ‘On Wednesday, October 26 we used the MSN daily opt-in poll to learn more about so-called “Shy Trump Voters”. The question is whether some Trump supporters are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support Republican nominee Donald Trump. So, he may over-perform on Election Day with those people conformable to cast a secret ballot but mislead pollsters. The technical term for this is social desirability bias, where respondents tell the pollster what they think the pollster or society wants to hear. The evidence from traditional polls is that there may have been some of this in the primary election, but not in the general election. We see evidence that some Trump voters may be a little more embarrassed to tell people they are voting for Trump, but no evidence this will actually lead to Trump beating the polls on Election Day.’

      Notice the bias in his piece?

      He uses the words embarrassed and shy to describe voters who don’t tell pollsters they are voting for Trump.

      Embarrassed? The chutzpah!!

      No, they keep a low profile because of reprisals. Trump supporters have had their homes vandalized, cars spray painted, yard signs destroyed and they’ve been physically beaten.

  3. Two of my sisters, lifelong democrats on fence. I might persuade them to vote trump. Hillary is in trouble.

  4. it will come down to where trump picks up those last 10 electoral votes. I think he narrowly loses Nevada. Too Hispanic. He’s going to win the popular vote. All red state Ohio Florida and North Carolina. But can he pull a blue Midwest state? That’s the rub right now in my view.

  8. I’m not one to ever shout false flag, but if there was ever a time for one, this is it. Don’t be surprised if MSM/FBI start reporting that “white supremacists” or “Trump supporters” murdered those two cops in Iowa.

  10. California, OR, WA, NY, NJ, MA, IL, CT, VT, are LOCKS for Clinton. As astounding as it might seem I even wonder about Utah!

    Sure it looks good for Trump but I tell you that a nation that put
    Clinton, who committed PERJURY while a sitting President, was re-elected
    and Obama got TWO terms… Of course the Mainstream Media, which is
    owned and operated by a certain “religious” group (hint: NOT Moslem or
    Christian) keeps the brainwashing and hiding of real information from
    the white masses. That and George Soros, true name Gyorgy Schwartz,
    owning the VOTING MACHINES in several states, including Utah, and the
    illegals voting, the DEAD voting, and Demonrats voting several times and
    you have a very uncertain outcome.

    This is the point where the electoral process gets its last chance. And
    Trump isn’t even radical, he is more like old time conservatives were,
    perhaps less so, but that is how truly MODERATE he is but in the new
    America he is considered a Nazi. I wonder if the Greatest Generation, if
    they could look back and see how they fought for the interests of those
    who have destroyed America, and what America has become would be so
    eager to go along with the media’s blaring about the evil “Hitler”

  13. When it comes down to the nut cuttin’, the fate of the election is in the hands of white people in the old Union states and their political allies on the Left Coast. The South and interior West count for naught. They haven’t since 1865.

  14. As is seen in the FiveThirtyEight graph below, Trump has enjoyed two previous bounces, but he’s never really posed a threat to Clinton. From an October 29 Sam Wang column at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/opinion/campaign-stops/why-trump-stays-afloat.html is this:

    Mrs. Clinton’s average margin over Mr. Trump of five points has been enough to make her the first candidate to maintain a durable lead in an open presidential race since Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson in 1952.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d0ac13565aa3a04ecc7d05caa3e5b1c309854a94e0e4b525aa7f7956e29bd642.jpg

    • I’d say Trump is a real threat. How well Clinton was beating Trump four months ago, or even four days ago, doesn’t really matter. George H.W. Bush surged past Dukakis. Reagan surged past Carter mere days before the election. What matters most is right now, and the trend towards Trump is obvious from the polls. Trump is either leading or tied with Clinton in most national polls, with a rather large number of undecided, uncommitted. Often times, but not always, undecided voters break 2 to 1 against the party in the white house.

  15. Dallas news just reported that a Black church over in Mississippi was burned and had the grafitto “Vote for Trump,” sprayed painted on it.

  16. Leading Trump Live Stream Video Channel RIGHT SIDE BROADCASTING Censored by YouTube! Jim Hoft Nov 2nd, 2016 6:01 pm

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/leading-trump-live-stream-youtube-channel-right-side-broadcasting-censored-youtube/

    Right side broadcasting confirmed they had their live stream disabled by YouTube today, after having their live stream camera sabotaged this morning.

    RSB Network released a statement today:
    Right side broadcasting confirmed they had their live stream disabled by YouTube today, after having their live stream camera sabotaged this morning by being wiped while they left the camera unattended after setting up:

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