Editor’s Note: The IHME model has now proven to be too optimistic.
Time flies.
I’m posting this here for my own purposes. I just noticed that we have gone from +100,000 to +200,000 closed cases. The death rate of closed cases has dropped from 38% to 30%.
IT IS NOT DROPPING FAST ENOUGH.
Cases: 739,932
Deaths: 39,015
Closed Cases: 107,300
Active Cases: 631,623
Recoveries: 68,285 (64%)
Deaths: 39,015 (36%)
Cases: 877,672
Deaths: 49,736
Closed Cases: 134,783
Active Cases: 742,889
Recoveries: 85,047 (63%)
Deaths: 49,736 (37%)
4/29
Cases: 1,055,455
Deaths: 61,112
Closed Cases: 205,535
Active Cases: 849,920
Recoveries: 144,423 (70%)
Deaths: 61,112 (30%)
4/5ths of cases are still unresolved.
The world now has 1,223,227 global closed cases which have ended in 995,927 recoveries (81%) and 227,300 (19%). The curious thing about this is that the global death rate of confirmed cases stabilized around 20% a month ago. Is this our true case fatality rate?
Note: If 20% of our current active cases end in death, an additional 169,984 Americans will die from this, not including the 61,112 who are dead now. The death rate of confirmed closed cases in Italy is still 28%.
What bugs the shit out of me is that basically no one has to die from this, it has been successfully treated by several doctors already. That French doctor just used Hydroxycholoquine on 2,600 patients and only lost 10, and then there’s a doctor in LA who uses Hydroxy on early stages and if they get worse, he uses anti-inflammatory medicines since the virus can cause an out of control immune response that starts destroying the body. He has lost ZERO patients. Why isn’t this being done for everyone who gets sick with it?
As someone pointed out if you gave the patients gummi bears the majority would recover. That does not mean that gummi bears are the cure.
Did this French doctor deal mostly with mild cases with the more severe cases going to hospital or was it a representative sample? That alone could give the illusion of success where none exists.
The studies that have been done on Hydroxychloroquine (no useful effect) all seem to have left out the zinc factor which should be investigated.
I couldn’t find anything specific to what you are asking, but as some of the patients were already in the hospital, I’d say it probably works for more advanced cases, too. Obviously it will work better the sooner it’s given, but there have been cases here in the states where the people were in serious condition and survived when given the drug. There is one terrible thing wrong with Hydroxychloroquine: it’s cheap, a 5 day regimen of it is under $20.
I looked at the study briefly and there are serious problems with it. It was not randomised and there was no control group. The doctor in charge also hasn’t released the individual patient data so no follow up to check that data is possible.
There have been accusations that patients were preselected for low viral loads but again this cannot be checked due to the lack of individual patient data, nor was any peer review done.
What I don’t understand with people like you, is why you’re so adamant against a treatment like Hydroxycholoquine when it seems to work very well. It’s a harmless drug and has been taken for malaria, lupus, and arthritis for 70 years. If you don’t want it if you get sick, fine, save it for someone else.
I have no idea where you get the idea that I am against Hydroxychloroquine. It’s a fine dug for anti-malarial purposes.
I am against taking drugs that do nothing or could cause harm and there isn’t as yet any proof that this drug is useful for covid19.
As I said they should investigate this drug in conjunction with zinc as that is a possible useful combination.
The chances of any drug being useful against a newly emergent virus is very low. We aren’t likely to be that lucky but we should investigate every possibility because the payoff would be enormous.
Crappy science and hopium aren’t a replacement for something that actually works because the virus doesn’t care about out Hope’s and dreams.
If you have COVID-19, there is nothing stopping you from asking for Hydroxychloroquine, or from your doctor giving it to you. There is a Federal Law that protects your right to try it.
The reaper is coming for everything “right-wing.”
Given that more and more states will be ending the half-hearted lockdowns we will be seeing a wider spread of the virus and even larger numbers.
At this point we will be lucky to see 150,000 to 250,000 dead. I assume that the lockdowns will return to many states as cases begin climbing. Even if they do not people will remain at home as much as they can even if there is no lockdown. Enough people will keep moving about spreading the virus that the R0 number will remain well above 1.0 in many areas.
The United States simply doesn’t have the unity, societal strength, or institutional trust to deal with this event.
The Trump presidency is done. If a complete turnip like Joe Biden is beating him in battleground states in Fox News polls then it’s over. If the Democrats replace Biden with Coumo then it won’t even be close.
The death toll will climb, the economy will continue to struggle and injecting bleach and sound bites of the virus magically vanishing by April will be played again and again by the Democrats pet media.
Discrediting both the Republicans and the Democrats should be something we want though it is clear that many of those who claim to be allies are simply Republican loyalists.
Even if the following were true:
– No one else from this moment forward gets infected and dies from the virus
– Everyone who has the virus now who doesn’t have a positive test result is asymptomatic.
The death toll could still be north of 200,000. The fatality rate of closed confirmed cases HAS TO FALL BELOW 20% in the United States.
Given that none of these things are the case, Brad, what do you think the death total will be by the end of the year? 200,000, man, I wish. This is so bad. Thanks for what you’re doing man
“The United States simply doesn’t have the unity, societal strength, or institutional trust to deal with this event.”
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
“Even if they do not people will remain at home as much as they can even if there is no lockdown.”
You give ppl too much credit.
There will always be 20% of morons and others willing to risk everything for that cheeseburger. Most people 60% to 70% will reduce their trips and activities until they believe it is safe. That lack of confidence will cripple the economy and the 20% to 30% of morons or sociopaths will ensure the virus a highway of infection so the economy remains at low level of activity.
That guy in the last picture appears slightly confused. 😀
Or wench, as the case may be.
Minimizers are quick to point out that the “true” number of infected is probably much greater than the confirmed cases (because not everyone suffers severe symptoms), but even if we only look at the confirmed cases, that’s a lot of dead people. By no means is it apocalyptic, but it’s still bad.
For me, the issue really turns on how effective the shutdowns have been in preventing the number of (confirmed) cases from rising high even higher than it would have been without shutting down. In other words, do the public health benefits justify the economic costs?
Fortunately, we will soon be able to answer your question.