Lets assume the following.
1.) The IFR of COVID-19 is 1%.
2.) No one has immunity to the virus.
3.) There is no effective vaccine or treatment.
4.) 70% of the population has to be infected to reach herd immunity.
5.) Most people who have the virus are asymptomatic.
6.) The lockdowns have worked and suppressed the virus.
7.) The vast majority of the people who die will be over 60 years old or have comorbidities like obesity, diabetes, hypertension, etc.
How many people would we expect to die from the virus in Stockholm County, Sweden?
2,344,000 (population) x 70% (herd immunity threshold) x 1% (IFR) = 16,408 predicted deaths.
Current COVID-19 deaths in Stockholm County, Sweden: 1,406
Why not apply the same thought experiment to the United States?
328.2 million (population) x 70% (herd immunity threshold) x 1% (IFR) = 2,297,400 predicted deaths.
You Cant assume that no one has immunity. Some people will be exposed to this and the immune system will shuck it off or block it. Its possible that Wuhan numbers reflect a herd immunity to a family of bat corona viruses. It’s quite possible that one of the viruses in the Wuhan area simply mutated a bit and became slightly more contagious and and more deadly.
“Herd immunity” makes me very uncomfortable, having witnessed my healthy relatively young 40 and 50 something year old neighbors suffering for 3 weeks from Corona as well as losing an aunt and two uncles. I just spoke to them as they were early victims and the the woman told me she was miserable but her husband, who is still weak, was on death’s door the whole time. If she was considered a “success story” we need to reevaluate just who is willing to undergo a few weeks of hell for no other reason than being told to “herd”
We also do not know the R0 factor of transmissibility yet nor do we know if you can be reinfected. Factor in those with health problems and the elderly, and it seems like a bad idea to me. In regards to Sweden, they have some form of a cohesive society for the time being. You dont hear about their disgruntled POC youth spitting in iced cream out of spite neither do you see religious ceremonies with thousands of zealots dressed in all black and jumping on cars… No “twerking festivals” either. I am with your take so far Brad “HW”. This whole situation has been so badly handled
People focus mostly on deaths, but the symptoms can still be really bad for those who don’t die. And there is some evidence of longer lasting damage to organs that might even end up causing problems for survivors down the road.
I am not really afraid of dying from this thing more what you stated, But even more so the idea of being awake for weeks at a time with my lungs filled to the brim and gasping for air like my neighbor. Chinese water torture, meet chinese corona torture. I could live without either in my life
Trumpo will pussyfoot around, and then not do anything about the Chinese, and their COVID-19 bio-weapon. Meanwhile, the crazy and the selfish, as Brad has pointed out, don’t understand what we are dealing with.
Very badly handled, in USA.
Very well in Taiwan& others.
Welcome to the mongrel society and its consequences. sickness & poverty,
the only result.
I believe you are correct. Outside of the soldering up doors and removing them a month later, the U.S. is the perfect storm for worst case scenario. Bumbling leadership more concerned with appearance & the S and P than people not to mention a population with no ties that bond each other composed of primitives with a chip on their shoulder and the inability to deny instant gratification on one side and those who place their freedom to shoot pool and eat at The Olive Garden ahead of everyone elses health and well being
The only thing that could really be done in the USA would be to improve treatment so that 1% might potentially become lower. If it is even possible.
Effective strategies don’t really seem to be on the table at all because of the American political and cultural landscape.
God bless you for this work, Hunter. I knew you had the ability, all we needed was the volume of articles to compete with The Daily Informer.
Herd immunity doesn’t make that much sense to me especially with corona 19. How do we magically get immune to the deadly wuflu like it was like the normal flu? I guess We will know if Swedens Herd immunity strategy works or not last week they had a huge surge of new infected but not so much this week, it could still backfire
Evidently there are multiple immune systems.
An innate immune system that you are genetically born with and an acquired immunity that you develop wi exposure to pathogens.
And these overlap in some degree, with different channels in both systems.
Far more complex than current science understands.
Then, combined wi environmental factors and comorbities the immune systems are degraded.
We can only work from empirical knowledge, the actual systems are way too complex for today’s ‘science’.
It’s our innate immunity, that will save most ppl.
The rest is just mitigation.
OK. Sounds great!
Seeing your other comments over time, it’s obvious you’re not joking. If it gets to this point atleast there’s a really good chance you’ll get it, since your psychosis has led you to becoming a covid truther (let’s also hope you suffer as much as possible from it.)
LOL! Zhid – I’m not worried. You are the one in danger, bagel nigger! Die choking as fast as you can!
PS – only a Heeb would turn the concept of truth into a slur! So Spawn of Satan kike of jou!
You’re not even a Christian, Denise, so I’m unsure why you’re calling Ultar3 a “Spawn of Satan” as if you believe in Satan. Historically, pagans such as yourself were the ones labeled as satanic by the white Christian majority.
Satan is a concept Christians lifted from Zoroastrianism. Christians have been calling each other Satanic from the beginning of their history. The Pope is the Satan for many Protestants, and Papists believe that Protestant heretics are all Satan’s spawn. According to Christians themselves, Christianity is a Satanic religion.
Thank you, Marcus!
Denise is obviously a bad actor here to troll or more likely to cause dissent and arguments amongst thosw here with good intentions
I’ve needled her in the past, but she isn’t worth the effort.
I’m a “bad actor”? LOL! From some one who shows up suddenly, named “Captain SHILL”? Ha! Oy vey the HOOT-zpah Just called yourself Captain Obviousbergstein.
2.2 million was what they predicted if there was no social distancing. And social distancing was not-according to its proponents-intended to be permanent but only utilized until hospital space and ventilators were freed up. I do not believe COV-19 is a hoax or just like the flu. Its infection rate is 80 higher according to the experts.But the death rate may not be as severe as they first claimed. Time will tell. But I do believe the powers that be are using it to bring a Democratic candidate to power as regards the presidency. Never let any crisis go to waste is the goal of our enemies. They are exploiting it for all its worth. It reminds me of the coverage of the Atlanta child killings in the 90s (?) as regards media malevolence towards traditional America. Separation or extinction!
0.8% to 1% IFR is how they got that number.
At this point, I’m not even sure what these doltish “flu truthers” are trying to achieve.
It seems to be denial out of pure pig-headed contrarianism, resisting reality itself simply for the sake of resisting.
At this point, if they catch this and die from it, you can probably expect their last words to be “it’s not the coronavirus! Viruses aren’t real! It’s just a random vitamin deficiency!” It seems like it’s literally impossible for ANYTHING to convince them that COVID-19 exists.
Their frenzied, fanatical, furiously angry belief is detached from all reality and all purpose — they’ve simply latched onto a completely insane idea and will defend it against all comers, no doubt including the virus itself.
Crazed to the point of adopting positions that have no purpose, other than that they AREN’T real, and therefore MUST be realer than reality, and only these super-wise and intelligent people can see it. Or something.
Or to put it another way, “So great is his faith that mere facts cannot shake it.”
Well said.
The flu truthers are either willing shills for the Republican party, like Anglin or Hannity, or they are unintelligent people who have been swayed by psyops from the aforementioned shills.
I think they are genuine. Movements claiming the Earth is flat, space doesn’t exist, we didin’t go to the Moon, viruses are a hoax, etc, didn’t exist back in the 1980s. I think the internet is responsible for all of it. Either that or “they” put something in our water supply to make people lose touch with reality. đ
If it can happen to Elon Musk, then low intelligence isn’t a factor. A strong persecution complex and high levels of paranoia could be the main factors.
See this video on Elon Musk starting 6 minutes in. He believes he is the main character in a computer game world, where the corona virus is a global hoax put on by the Illuminati in order to rob Americans of their freedom to be dumbasses.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/tLYXvCv3aaw/
The flu-hoaxers are becoming more shrill and childish with every passing day. I soon expect to read that HW has become an anti-white poopyhead with girl cooties.
It only took 200 years, even after a vaccine discovered by Edward Jenner, for the smallpox virus to be finally to be eradicated. Don’t put too much faith in “herd” immunity. If there is even such a thing as herd immunity?
It will all fall back to our innate immunity and general good health.
Yeah, but, it may well take hundreds of years, even with a vaccine.
CNBC keeps interviewing finance people, some of the most loathsome characters in the world BTW, about corona and they always give their prognostications as though they were experts. People like the horrible Bill Gates and other filthy rich types are constantly quoted on TV as though they were some kind of oracle with great technical expertise in the field of virology and medicine because they read some books about it and are rich. These people have the salesman’s glib, unctuous look about them, like cheap lawyers in Sears Roebuck mail order suits able to spout the latest technical terms to seem knowledgeable and important.
While people who have genuine technical expertise in these complex fields are usually much more reticent to express optimism the business types are running the show. Business is all about making as much money as quickly as possible without going to jail and therefore, optimism is always the strategy. Wishful thinking that it’s possible to buy a cure the way businessmen buy politicians just doesn’t work here. Science is not a football game and yelling at the players won’t speed things up nor is this an engineering problem where money can be applied to fix things.
We are truly screwed here, the biology problem is intersecting with severe economic problems and the people in charge are like horses running down the track with blinders on. All they can see is throwing more money at the problem believing they can buy a quick fix. Look for the politicians to bail out the bankrupt state governments next which will ultimately ruin the dollar.
Think the Chinese didn’t plan it this way?
The U.S. did it to ourselves, at least the ruling class, much more than the Chinese. It was the Republicans and the Democrats tag teaming each other to give China MFN, to remove tariffs, to allow U.S. businesses such as aerospace firms to move production to China etc. It was Bernard Schwarz of Loral Corp. who sold MIRV technology to China with the approval of that scumbag, Bill Clinton.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_L._Schwartz
It was the U.S. Government going in to debt like crazy so Congress could bribe the public with its own money and also so Congress could enrich its corrupt friends. The Chinese were happy to buy U.S. Treasuries with their trade surpluses they earned from selling junk that enriched Wal-Mart giving them behind the scenes influence over U.S. policies. The Chinese also used their trade surplus money to build a modern military with anti-satellite and other advanced capabilities.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-china-could-win-war-against-america-kill-satellites-85176
U.S. universities have allowed tens of thousands of Chinese “students” to attend college and university in the U.S. studying things like virology at UNC and Harvard even getting caught engaging in espionage. The Chinese students pay full price to the university they attend, a very lucrative deal for both China and U.S. universities and a bad deal for the rest of us. The universities constantly complain to those scumbags in Congress that they need more student visas, consequences be damned.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51288854
I could go on but I have made my point, the U.S. suffers from self inflicted wounds, fundamentally. These aren’t mistakes or acts of stupid people either, these decisions were made by U.S. presidents, members of Congress and the bureaucracy and others at high levels in the U.S. Government with knowledge of the long term, damaging consequences. Greed was the overriding motive for the scumbag businessmen and members of Congress who did these things, greed. It’s apparently the Achilles’ heel of the U.S., unmitigated greed.
Great post! Unending greed for money and power marks elites throughout history. The neoliberal globalist scum have been able to extend their reach more fully than any other elite that came before them. Their appetites have far exceeded their competence, though, which is why the world is burning down around their stupid and selfish selves.
This was something that occurred to me, too. Children were dying from diphtheria, measles, and whooping cough for centuries, but until vaccines were available, they were still dying of them into the 20th Century. Measles was first mentioned in the 300s AD in China, and by 900 AD in Persia. Herd immunity certainly didn’t do much to eradicate it over a span of nearly 2,000 years and millions and millions of cases. Diphtheria was first identified around 1600 in Spain. In 1921 in the US, there were 206,000 cases with over 15,000 deaths. Not much herd immunity for that, either.
If the assumptions are correct, won’t the “2,297,400” predicted deaths happen anyway just over a longer period of time? The lockdowns are only slowing the speed, but we will still arrive at that number as soon as the lockdown is lifted. Are we supposed to lockdown until we reach 2,000,000 dead? Are we relying on a vaccine that may never be found?
If you eradicate it and don’t allow it to return like China and Taiwan, then no. Also, if a vaccine, treatment or cure is found, those deaths can be avoided.
@ cmarr
The idea is like firefighting, to extinguish all the spot fires and save the greater forest.
I think it’s too late for that.
You’re probably right, in the long term.
Cmarr, the death rate isn’t a constant. If someone with pneumonia spends a rainy night in the woods their chance of death rises dramatically.
If the health system is overwhelmed or swamped the death rate starts to rise and that same health system cannot function normally resulting in other deaths and health issues.
Masks and protective equipment need to be manufactured which takes time. Any potential vaccine will take time as will other drugs to help the infected. There is a hard limit on ventilators and trained operators of those ventilators as well as other health care equipment. The more infected you have at any given time the more medical personnel who get sick and the higher the death rate.
Other non-infected patients who have cancer, kidney problems, are involved in a vehicle accident or have a heart attack are at even greater risk as more covid 19 cases flood the hospitals. If they get the virus in their weakened condition their survival rates drop.
So no it doesn’t all equal out in the end.
You forgot to mention that Donald Trump and his donors back in February wanted to âRide it outâ and treat it âjust like the fluâ