Here is the weekly update from COVID Forecast Hub, where we are storing forecasts of #COVID19 deaths in the US from 20 research groups. Our national ensemble combines 7 models and predicts that we will see ~113K deaths by June 6 (80% PI: 104K-123K). https://t.co/jWFRZLgUBu
— Nicholas G. Reich (@reichlab) May 12, 2020
1/10 pic.twitter.com/gOlbRbkchT
It’s just the flu, bro!
We’re currently at 83,425 deaths.
I see the IHME model has been updated again. It is now projecting 147,040 deaths by August 4. The Youyang Gu model which has been the most accurate is projecting 186,904 deaths by August 4. The Reich Lab COVID-19 Forecast Hub which uses an ensemble of different models is projecting 113,000 deaths a month from now. By the end of June, more Americans will have died from COVID-19 than in World War I and the 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics.
Here are two known unknowns:
1.) First, we don’t know how the reopenings will change these projections through the summer although it is highly likely that the numbers will become even worse.
2.) Second, we don’t know what will happen in the fall and winter with the virus although the history of pandemics strongly suggests a second wave which will be even bigger and will peak in the fall.
In light of the above, it has been amazing to watch the mainstreamers clinging to Donald Trump and humping the leg of conservatism like nothing has happened over the past three months. It is not as bad as lightning strikes! It is not as bad as falling off ladders! It is not as bad as bee stings! This virus is a piker compared to swine flu! 12,400 people died when Obama was president!
You would think it would have dawned on them by now that Donald Trump is finished and that the coronavirus will be an albatross hung around the neck of mainstream conservatism which will last for generations. We’re well on the way to this becoming the single most devastating public health disaster in American history. No politician can recover from something like this particularly when his base is old people and the virus is just slaughtering old people. The death toll might swing entire states.
All I am saying is that it makes no sense to identify yourself with Trump and Conservatism, Inc. right now. If you had any sense, you would be social distancing from this wreck.
Note: I told you it was an iceberg.
It looks like Biden’s handlers are keeping the old nuzzlehumper in his basement. Senile Joe can appear from there on the many friendly news shows that won’t challenge him while he stumbles over his carefully-prepared notes. He even looks down at them while answering the scripted questions. If you wrote this as satire, it would be derided as too obvious and heavy-handed. At least he’s not molesting kids…for now.
His campaign also has media surrogates writing laughable propaganda, like the recent New York Mag piece about Biden being the next FDR. Fingering Joe is more corporatist than Blompf, for Chrissakes. He doesn’t even support Medicare For All, despite it being the Dem primary voter’s no.1 issue.
Is it time for either a neoreactionary monarchist state or a Moldbuggian SovCorp to replace this pathetic mess?
And hitch your wagon to what exactly? “Southern nationalism”? Dream on.
Dump Trump now and you only empower the far left. Worse is worse, bro, no way around that.
An open enemy is better than a false friend. You think the treachery of Trump should be rewarded with a second term as president? What signal does that send to the Zionist elite who rule us? It tells them we truly are just cattle.
That’s why they call it ‘herd immunity.’ Or didn’t you realize that?
Fr. John,
I agree. I hate the term herd immunity. We are humans not animals. It should be called group or societal or national immunity not herd immunity.
“I failed to change the course of world history in one election cycle so I’m taking my ball and going home” is not an attitude I can endorse.
It doesn’t matter what signal we send ZOG; we’re never going to change their minds. What matters is the signal ZOG sends to white people, which if Trump loses — especially by a wide margin — is going to be “See? You need to set aside all this racism and populism and blah blah.”
And mind you, I’m not saying don’t be critical. By all means, hold his fucking feet to the fire.
what difference, at this point, does it make?
What a ridiculous statement.
How about hitching your wagon to “none of the above?”
You people act like you MUST support one of these louts. How about just going poolside, as I’ve seen it expressed, and watching the disaster from afar?
Poolside is where I am lounging
Trump’s (((advisors))) don’t care. A Biden Presidency will not be much different from Trump presidency. (((They))) will get what they want no matter who wins.
The way things are going with Joe addled by dementia Trump has an excellent chance of winning in November, for better or worse. You can’t beat something with nothing and Joe is nothing. He is neither physically nor mentally able to run a campaign and he will be in worse shape by election day, much worse.
If the Democrats replace Joe who will it be? Andrew Cuomo looks like he stepped out of central casting for Goodfellas and people don’t want a Mafia Don in the White House. Joe is an empty suit.
If Joe picks (or his keepers pick for him) 300 Lb. Gap toothed Stacey Abrams it’s all over by a mile then.
The best thing to do is just kick back and enjoy the laughs this election season, there should be many of them. In Trump’s second term the comedy will turn to tragedy but there is no stopping it now.
Exactly. I don’t hope for any positive results out of Trump, but he still has a 95%+ chance of winning a second term.
The patched fool Biden has about as much chance of emerging victorious as a random turkey from a turkey farm.
“If the Democrats replace Joe who will it be?”
I still have one dollar going that they’ll announce Hillary as his VP in the last run up to the election with the plan being that once in office, Biden will get suicided and Hillary sworn in as president.
That or Barack rides Biden’s or Michelle’s coattails back into the White House. That has been my guess all along, but the timing of the Obamagate abuse of the National Security Agency eavesdropping capability to spy on his enemies suggests Hillary is fighting back. Barack better hope his Secret Service detail likes him. That Arkansas love note bullet can come from anywhere.
I made the same point on Counter-Currents months ago. To support Trump or not? I had lost all faith in Trump, and his incompetence was overwhelming, and figured anybody still clinging to him will be brought low by him. Best to jump off that train before the crash and burn.
Well, here it is.
Remember, this is the only government we have in the midst of – or still at the beginning of – this global disaster. Like all other plutocratic, Neo-lib-con governments, the government of Pindostan will do no more to save the common people than it absolutely has to. But anarchy would be worse.
The Democratic Party and the Republican Party are both equally capitalist, pro-business, pro-war, and pro- universal surveillance and mass incarceration police state. The Green party is a fake alternative. Elections are top-down-decisions, charades of democracy, and electronic and mail-in voting systems are hackable. All other Neo-lib-con run countries (our allies) are the same, but Pindostan, being their head, is a little worse.
Wherever the “Trump 2020” yard signs and flags are up around here (and they are abundant around here) there are NO MASKS.
Not only in the U.S. but many other countries, the conservative (aka right-wing) and libertarian sheeple are being used to push the “re-opening,” to their own demise.
In Germany, for example: https://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2020/05/13/far-right-pro-corona-madness-around-the-world/
The ship is going down, and it will drag you down with it. The most important thing now is to be part of the 20 percent who might never be infected, and that requires extreme patience, discipline, and intelligence.
It’s true. Be vigilant. I know I am getting complacent. Can’t do that.
Republicans are going to be destroyed in November. Democrats are now proposing UBI and bailing out the American people, while Republicans are saying “let them eat cake.” When Republicans end up voting against bailouts for people while simultaneously shoveling money into Wall Street, they will be committing electoral suicide.
I like the “bailouts for people” framing because it plays to the American sense of fairness. People are more willing to support UBI if it is framed as a bailout because then they think “Wall Street gets bailouts, why not us?”
There is a Reich Lab?
The idiots who support Trump only care about 1 thing and that’s having a White dude in office. That’s all they care about. Trump is White and that’s all many of our people care about. That’s nothing but a Joke. We don’t need a White dude in office…we need White Leaders in office. People who live for God and make good decisions. OMG we don’t want Obama….we need a White dude. Yea and now with that ridiculous voting strategy we have one of the biggest health pandemics in human history! Geee and remember his own Son in Law is a Jew. Yea I’d say Trump is no friend of the White Race. He only cares about Big Business that dominated by Jews. He’s a Jew in my eyes not a White dude and he sure don’t care about defeating Covid-19 and keeping us safe from it. It’s all about the Stock Market and his poll numbers. He’s not my President and he has no lewdership ability. His staff is 10 times worse. It’s time we have new leadership in all elected offices that put our Nationalist interests first and help get the cure / vaccine on the market so we can defeat Covid-19 and progress our economy, public government prograns, and Worker’s Rights. Deo Vindice !
I remember seeing a clip on TV with Kushner stating that “the Americans” will get all the food they need. It was a very clear look into the true jewish mindset. They consider themselves separate from, and above “the Americans.”