I haven’t done any horserace polling articles.
I still think Trump is on track to win the 2024 election.
- Trump is polling stronger against Kamala Harris than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden
- Trump is tied with Kamala Harris in the RCP average in the battleground states and she is only leading by 2.2 points nationwide. She is short in the Electoral College
- At this point in 2016 and 2020, Hillary and Biden were up by 4.1 and 9 points respectively
- In 2020, Trump was polling so badly that the polls had him losing Ohio and Florida. He is currently ahead in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. He was losing North Carolina at this point to Hillary and Biden in 2016 and 2020. He won both times
- Pennsylvania is tied. Hillary was up 7.5 points in 2016 and Biden was up 6.5 points in 2020.
- In Wisconsin, Kamala Harris is up 0.8 points. At this point, Hillary and Biden were both up 5.5 points. Trump beat his polling in Wisconsin by 6 points in 2020.
- White college educated liberals are far more likely to respond to polls than White working class Trump voters. Response bias is giving Kamala an illusory edge
- In key states like Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Republicans have been registering more new voters than Democrats
- Gallup Party ID has found a Republican electorate in Q3 2024
The bottom line is that Kamala Harris looks weak compared to Hillary and Biden. Trump had virtually no chance according to the polls in 2020 and ultimately lost by half of a college football stadium in three states (Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin). This was in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic.
I am sure that some people will say in the comments that I am shilling for Trump. Feel free to persuade me that Kamala Harris is winning this race. The strongest case for that is Dobbs and abortion and Democrats doing better than expected in 2022, but that was a midterm election which favors Democratic voters and the GOP won the popular vote and the House like the polls suggested.
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