The Selzer Poll

November 3, 2024 Hunter Wallace Iowa, Political Science, Politics 13

Don’t get cocky.

As I said last night on The Political Cesspool, Kamala Harris got some good news when the highly anticipated Ann Selzer poll in Iowa came back as Harris +3 … in Iowa.

If this number is even remotely close to being true, Kamala Harris is going to win in a landslide on Tuesday. A separate Emerson poll of Iowa has Trump +10. Atlas Intel has Trump winning the national popular vote and up in all the swing states. The New York Times / Siena College has Kamala Harris winning the Electoral College through Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia.

Choose which version of reality you believe.

Personally, I don’t believe the Selzer poll which defies: voter registration since 2020 (Iowa has shifted from R+1 to R+10), early voting trends (Republicans are ahead in Iowa for the first time in decades) and even party registration shifts in October which show Iowa trending more Republican like other states. Neither campaign has been to Iowa or has any plans to hold rallies there.

If we are surprised on Tuesday though, this was the early warning siren. Don’t assume that Trump is going to win this election. Go out and vote.

13 Comments

  1. The ((Papist)) Nazis (Who are mostly Leftists and Feds) whp proliferate around here were unlikely to ever vote Trump. The only time they did was in 2016 when the (()) thought Der Fuhrer was going to win, or the FEDs voted for him as a joke. So, hard to tell if this warning will make a difference. On the other hand, there are some true Patriots here who have some considerable inflience. So, the mustard seed even though sown in a rocky crevice, may grow well. If Trump loses its the end. There will never be a normal Constitutional pathway to save the country.

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  2. I just wonder how many ppl have gone down the same path I took years ago, giving pollsters random answers.

    It’s nobodies damn business prying into my mind or pigeonholing me into some sociopolitical category.

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  3. You can be absolutely certain of one thing, any poll that the NYtimes uses will be a push-poll skewed to serve their agenda.

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  4. The substack author Will Zoll has been running an interesting series the past month, called When Decades Happen. It’s an interesting series tracing revolutions, their primary actors and beneficiaries. Zoll’s over-arching theory is that the mess we find ourselves in is primarily the result of a very wrong turn made during the so-called “enlightenment” and he musters a considerably body of evidence to bolster his argument.

    The final item in the series appeared recently and (to Zoll’s credit) he offers something of an answer to the famous question What is to be done? It’s a good question regardless of the very bad actor who made it famous. The final item in the series, Part VIII, offers up what Zoll calls a “Skeleton Plan” of 10 points. Definitely some food for thought here. Just a first glance, some of the principles of his plan seem to offer a means of de-programming white people of the poison they are so obviously infected with. At the end of the day, the Kosher Nosetra, the Papists, the Church of Woke, the Masons (another utopian cult) are all parasitic secondary infections. The mind virus introduced in the 18th century is the actual disease.

    Even K-Mac voted for Trump. As noted earlier, despite what Cheetohead the Clown has said, all of the war-pigs have lined up behind the Kumswallowah-walla of Kalifornistan, whose word-salads are legend in Pedowood and beyond. Not sure how much that’s worth but there is some reason the war-pigs prefer the whore over the clown.

    Even if the clown wins the vote, don’t get the idea that the bad actors are going to allow him to take office. Unlike Republicans (forever the shadow of the Marxist vanguard) Queen Chlamydia’s subjects have a very well-planned response in place.

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  5. For Trump to win North Carolina, he’s going to need a lot of white women to vote Dem for Governor and Trump for President. Female and Dem turnout are going to be very high due to Black Hitler as the republican candidate for Governor.

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  7. It will be ironic that the very thing that Conservativards have been clamoring for for 50 years and Trump finally helped deliver with his Supreme Court justices – the overturning of Roe V Wade – will seal his fate on Tuesday. Nothing ignites the rage in women – with their child-like minds – like being told what they can and can’t do.

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  8. Kamala is going to win in a landslide on Tuesday, I’m calling it. The 2022 midterms are the strongest evidence that apparently everyone forgot. Since then women have had two more years to stew in their juices, to say nothing of the foreign invasion at the border.

    And you know what? Let them have it. Let women abort their own genetics and get run through by the men they “select” until they are 35. Or let them go like South Korea, try femcel celibacy and be even more miserable. Let slip the dogs of sex war.

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  10. The Biden/harris/waltz administration, demonstrated their love and concern for our people, as shown by their actions, in Western North Carolina, to vote for this SATANIC SiNdicate, is exhibiting moral/political ignorance, They played “DIXIE” at his rally in NYC, the other day and you know he allowed it, who else but DON ” THE DiRTY WHITE BOY ” TRUMP, would acknowledge, we the ” SOUTHERN BOURBON INTELLECTUALS ” we are in a fight, we need everybody to show up, it could not be more clear, DUTY CALLS ! …….

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  11. All these polls are meaningless, the only thing that matters is who the jews want rig the elections for. Within ZOG there is currently a bit of factional infighting on who is better for Israel, which is why there is currently confusion on who is supposed to win this. Don’t however assume that this means voting matters, that is just pure delusion.

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