Nikki Haley: “If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, we will get a President Kamala Harris. You mark my words. He cannot win a general election…He can’t get independents. He can’t get suburban women.” (Jan. 2024) pic.twitter.com/1P9lTig0eL
— Republican Voters Against Trump (@AccountableGOP) July 22, 2024
CNN begrudgingly admits that suburban women went for Trump & were not motivated by the Dobbs decision pic.twitter.com/29E2bEfdQQ
— Kingsley Wilson (@KingsleyCortes) November 6, 2024
"If Trump l?s?s, it is w?m?n's f?ult."
— socksgrypr (@scksgrypr) November 3, 2024
– Nick Fuentes pic.twitter.com/MHZ5qfGHAx
I’m thrilled by the election results.
For most of October, I was glued to X. I wasn’t updating Occidental Dissent because there was too much information coming in about how early voting was going. We don’t have an Election Day anymore. We have an election season in most of the key battleground states. By Election Day, upwards of 70% of the expected vote had already been cast in Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.
As I followed the early vote returns, a few things became crystal clear: 1.) black turnout was going to be down, 2.) Republicans were putting up historic leads in early voting and 3.) women were outvoting men. Either Donald Trump and Republicans were on track to win in a rout, OR, the race was much closer because Republican and Independent women were breaking for Kamala Harris. We could see clearly who was voting in states with party registration. We couldn’t tell how they were voting though.
Kamala Harris had a simple strategy.
As with Hillary Clinton, the shot of her campaign was a full throated appeal to women. She would be the first female president. Donald Trump was responsible for the Dobbs decision. The election was a referendum on women’s rights. She put all her chips on driving up the gender gap, mobilizing women and specifically on winning over Republican and Independent suburban women. The Selzer Poll on the eve of the 2024 election which had Kamala Harris winning Iowa was based on the assumption that Harris was winning women in a landslide and closing the gap with men. It was highly unlikely, but it wasn’t implausible that Republican and Independent women were responding to her messaging.
Kamala Harris went down in flames because of White women. Trump won 60% of White men, but he also won 53% of White women. He won 61% of White non-college women and 42% of White college women. He won 92% of Republican men and Republican women. 61% of White non-college women voted for Trump. The smaller than expected gender gap combined with the defection of the low propensity men to Trump doomed the Harris campaign. We knew it was over when Loudoun County, VA – the wealthiest county in America – was 95% in and Harris was only ahead by 17%.
Here is how White women voted by state:
Alabama – 82% for Trump
Arizona – 49% for Trump
Nevada – 52% for Trump
Georgia – 71% for Trump
Pennsylvania – 51% for Trump
North Carolina – 61% for Trump
Michigan – 51% for Trump
Wisconsin – 48% for Trump
Iowa – 52% for Trump
In all of the battleground states, the key voter was Krystal. Would the Krystals show up and vote for Trump or would they be swayed by the abortion messaging of the Harris campaign?
There was never any question about how married White women or religious White women were going to vote. In Arkansas, 69% of White women voted for Trump because White evangelical Protestants are so much more rightwing than any other demographic group. How would the not really religious, moderate, Independent, maybe some college White women – the Krystals – swing though?
In my opinion, the funniest part of this election is how Nick Fuentes and the Groypers and other activists who hate White women made a huge public scene about not supporting Trump, and even went so far as to prematurely blame White women for his defeat. Incels and other burned out cynical losers who base their entire identity on hating women and not voting were humiliated on Tuesday when Trump won in a landslide largely because women came out in force to vote for him in early voting.
They were right that it could have easily been otherwise. Nikki Haley repeatedly made this same argument. Trump couldn’t win because of women, suburban and Independent voters.
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