Iran's army chief says he has ‘serious doubts’ regarding Israel’s commitment to ceasefire
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) June 30, 2025
There's a polymarket on the Israelis resuming the war in July, with a 31% chance pic.twitter.com/OCsoNlndOL
Lindsey Graham: It is not fair 80 years after the holocaust to ask Israel to speak with Iran… pic.twitter.com/pqYRPUKAWF
— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) June 29, 2025
TRUMP AND NETANYAHU GAZA PEACE DEAL? Look closely. Sounds like ethnic cleansing to me. pic.twitter.com/duMWBDyGuD
— Sabby Sabs (@SabbySabs2) June 26, 2025
Polymarket currently has it at a 31% chance that Israel breaks the peacefire and resumes the war with Iran in July. Netanyahu is expected to turn his attention to Gaza and expanding the Abraham Accords. He is also coming here to celebrate his great victory over Iran with Trump.
“As a leftist in the Trump era, I have often sheepishly envied the unanimity of the MAGA movement. While Democrats (rightly!) wail about spineless, sycophantic Republicans who never stand up to the president, who will change their ideological priors to align with his whims, a small, shabby voice in my head sometimes says, “But how about that message discipline …” Surely there is something disturbing about a political party so loath to publicly criticize its leader’s decisions — no matter how stupid — but the little Leninist in me cannot help but admire the ruthless self-control of the MAGA cadre. …
The split fell along existing factional lines, dividing the more radical, isolationist, and online right from the older, more institutional, and neoconservative flank of the party. On one side were MAGA celebrities such as Charlie Kirk, Jack Posobiec, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Steve Bannon, who warned that U.S. involvement — especially in a protracted war — would betray the base. (“Trump smartly ran against starting new wars,” Posobiec tweeted. “This is what the swing states voted for.”) On the other side were hawks: U.S. senators Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, Fox News personality Mark Levin, and Mark Dubowitz of the neocon Foundation for Defense of Democracies, all of whom had long nursed dreams of regime change in Iran. (As Graham put it on June 17: “Wouldn’t the world be better off if the Ayatollahs went away and were replaced with something better?”) …
For the time being, the open war within the MAGA coalition is subsiding. (It’s not quite a cease-fire, but a lowering of temperatures.) But almost everyone I spoke to in recent days agreed the contradictions revealed by the conflict remain unresolved. A younger cohort of MAGA activists, many of whom got jobs in the lower levels of the administration, have begun to seriously doubt the instinctual deference to Israeli prerogatives that reigns in official Washington. They speak openly of the existence of an “Israel lobby” perverting American priorities, using language once only found in leftist magazines and Noam Chomsky books. They perceive a silent caveat to America First — i.e., “Israel Firster” — that can’t be reconciled with foreign-policy realism or U.S. interests. Several young right-wingers pointed me to a clip, which circulated on X after the Iran strikes, of State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce referring to the U.S. as “the greatest country on Earth, next to Israel.”
While they do not express it with the same anguish as their liberal peers, at least some junior MAGA staffers have been repelled by the U.S.-backed massacre of Palestinians in Gaza. As one young Republican operative pointed out, fewer and fewer GOP staffers are coming up through the Evangelical movement, where Christian Zionism is inculcated; rather, those who remain religious tend to attend Catholic mass or some high-church denomination, where the sermons are very unlikely to invoke any biblical obligation to defend Israel. …”
“In the months after Oct. 7, 2023, the Miami University College Republicans’ debate nights grew rowdier and more hostile.
Disagreement was expected and encouraged among the Ohio college’s 120-member conservative group. But this time, a small yet forceful faction refused to support many members’ position that the United States should financially and militarily back Israel’s war in Gaza, recalled Andrew Belcher, then a Miami University freshman.
Belcher, who now chairs the college Republicans club, said two students left the group in angerand never returned.
Almost two years later, many of the club’s members, alongside a broader swath of young Republicans, are growing increasingly frustrated with the Israeli government’s hostilities in Gaza, Lebanon, and most recently, Iran.
“The fallout of Oct. 7 kind of broke that very emotional attachment to Israel,” said Belcher, 20, a junior. …
But views on the right are shifting.
In March, the Pew Research Center found that Republicans and Republican-leaning independents were more negative toward Israel than in 2022. Most of the shift came from Republicans under age 50. In 2022, 63 percent of Republicans under 50 had a positive view of Israel, and now they are roughly split, with 48 percent positive and 50 percent negative.
The GOP’s rift was evident in the aftermath of the U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities this month.
A poll conducted by Quinnipiac University last week found that while 7 percent of Republicans over age 50 thought the United States was too supportive of Israel, 31 percent of Republicans aged 18 to 49 agreed with the sentiment. ….
“These generations perceive a different Israel — less heroic or righteous, and more controversial,” said Amnon Cavari, an associate professor at Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel. “What once were occasional news stories portraying Israeli strength in the face of threats have become a steady stream of reporting that questions Israel’s actions and America’s role in enabling them. Consequently, support for Israel is declining.”
“Once the cornerstone of his political strength, President Donald Trump‘s base is showing signs of erosion.
The latest YouGov/Economist poll, conducted June 20-23 among 1,590 adults, shows that Trump’s approval rating among those who voted for him in 2024 stands at 83 percent, while 14 percent disapprove, giving him a net approval rating of +69 points, down from +80 last month.
Additional data from the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted June 21–23 among 1,139 respondents, reinforces the trend: 84 percent of Republicans said they approve of the president’s job performance, down from 90 percent last month. The latest poll had a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points.
Political analysts say Trump’s declining approval ratings are tied to a growing disconnect between his actions and voter priorities—particularly after his recent military intervention in Iran. …”
Gaza appears to be the next disaster in the making.
The “fundamental principles” of the “deal” that Trump is calling for on Truth Social involve “multiple nations globally will accept numerous Gaza inhabitants seeking emigration.” The fanatical settlers who are Netanyahu’s base have long called for expelling Palestinians to European countries like Ireland. Trump has also repeatedly said that Gaza is uninhabitable and the population will be relocated.
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