CNN: Democrats’ chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted:
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 15, 2025
Odds To win the House in 2026 Per @Kalshi
? Democrats: 63% (-20)
? Republicans: 37% (+20)
(Compared to 6 months ago)
Generic Ballot 2017 vs 2025
Oct 2017: ? Dem +8
Oct 2025: ? Dem +3 pic.twitter.com/1wyBXhcjaQ
The 2022 midterms were hyped as a Red Wave election.
A combination of Trump not being on the ballot, the unpopularity of the Republican brand, the backlash to the Dobbs decision and especially redistricting led to Democratic overperformance. The 2022 midterms also played a decisive role in convincing Joe Biden to run for a second term.
We’re now a year out from the 2026 midterms and see some of the same factors at play. Joe Biden’s approval rating was underwater by 8 points. Trump is underwater by 6.5 points. The Republican Party’s approval rating is underwater by 14.7 points to 26.2 points for Democrats. The national political environment leans Democrat by 3 points, but redistricting is giving the Republicans an edge in the House. The Senate doesn’t appear to be in play. Republicans might even pick up House seats.
Look out for another bombshell Supreme Court ruling that nukes the Voting Rights Act combined with Red States scrambling to redraw their makes to capitalize on Democratic losses.
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