2008 Swing States Party ID

BRA, 2008

Here’s a little walk through Obama history: Iowa, Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, and Minnesota went for Obama because of Independent voters. McCain outperformed Obama with the Republican base in Ohio. Democrats won Virginia for Obama.

In most of these swing states (Ohio was the exception), Democrats were more enthusiastic about Obama than Republicans were about McCain. Independent voters, Democratic enthusiasm, and Republican demoralization tipped the scales to Obama.

In some of these state polls of the 2012 swing states (looking at you Iowa and New Hampshire), the Democratic sample is actually greater than the Democratic advantage in turnout in 2008 when Obama was at the height of his popularity!

How can Obama possibly win New Hampshire while losing Independents to Romney when Independents were 45% of the electorate in 2008?


Iowa Exit Polls: 34% Democrat, 33% Republican, 33% Independent.

Note: In a D+1 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 54% to 44.7%. Independents break 56 to 41 for Obama. Democrats 93% for Obama. Republicans 90% for McCain.


Wisconsin Exit Polls: 39% Democrat, 33% Republican, 29% Independent.

Note: In a D+6 electorateObama defeats McCain, 56.3% to 42.4%. Independents break 58 to 39 for Obama. Democrats 95% for Obama. Republicans 28% for McCain.


Minnesota Exit Polls: 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 25% Independent.

Note: In a D+4 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 54.2% to 44%. Independents break 56 to 39 for Obama. Democrats 94% for Obama. Republicans 91% for McCain.


Michigan Exit Polls: 41% Democrat, 29% Republican, 29% Independent.

Note: In a D+11 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 57.4% to 40.9%. Independents break 52 to 42 for Obama. Democrats 93% for Obama. Republicans 89% for McCain.


Ohio Exit Polls: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.

Note: In a D+8 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 51.2% to 47.2%. Independents break 52 to 44 for Obama. Democrats 89% for Obama. Republicans 92% for McCain.


Pennsylvania Exit Polls: 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.

Note: In a D+7 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 54.7% to 44.3%. Independents break 58 to 39 for Obama. Democrats 90% for Obama. Republicans 85% for McCain.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire Exit Polls: 29% Democrat, 27% Republican, 45% Independent.

Note: In a D+2 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 54.3% to 44.8%. Independents break 59 to 39 for Obama. Democrats 92% for Obama. Republicans 89% for McCain.


Virginia Exit Polls: 39% Democrat, 33% Republican, 27% Independent.

Note: In a D+6 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 52.7% to 46.4%. Independents break 49% to 48% for Obama. Democrats and Republicans break 92% for their candidate.


Florida Exit Polls: 37% Democrats, 34% Republicans, 29% Independents.

Note: In a D+3 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 50.9% to 48.4%. Independents break 52 to 45 for Obama. Democrats and Republicans 87% for their candidate.


Colorado Exit Polls: 30% Democrat, 31% Republican, 39% Independent.

Note: In a R+1 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 53.5% to 44.9%. Independents break 54 to 44 for Obama. Democrats 92% for Obama. Republicans 87% for McCain.


Nevada Exit Polls: 38% Democrat, 30% Republican, 32% Independent.

Note: In a D+8 electorate, Obama defeats McCain, 55.1% to 42.7%. Independents break 54 to 41 for Obama. Democrats 93% for Obama. Republicans 88% for McCain.

Update: Scanning through the RCP average of the Ohio pollsGravis Marketing has Obama by 1 percent with a D+8 sample, Rasmussen has Romney by 2 percent (the partisan breakdown is only available to Platinum members), PPP has Obama by 4 percent with a D+8 sample, Purple Strategies has Obama by 2 percent with a D+7 sample, CNN/ORC has Obama by 4 with a D+3 sample, ARG has Obama by 2 with a D+9 sample, Time has Obama by 5 with a D+9 sample, and the Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization has a tie with D+3 sample.

In New Hampshire, PPP has Obama by 2 with a D+2 sample, ARG has Romney by 2 with an R+6 sample.

In Iowa, Gravis Marketing has Obama by 4 with a D+6 sample and PPP has Romney by 1 with an R+4 sample.

About Hunter Wallace 12380 Articles
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  1. This is an awful lot of attention being paid to an election that will not substantially change anything for the better about america.

  2. Agree with SL,

    but also question the old “wn” saw about voting politics being no good. They were saying that 40 years ago, too— when it could have mattered so much more. As if it’s smart or something to “know” that the “left” and “right” are the same. (Um… everybody knows that.)

    Voting is one TOOL. If a carpenter, for whatever reason, never used his wrench, just wasn’t getting jobs where the wrench was being used—- would he throw it out of his tool box… no.

    But they throw usable things away (even when they are useable).

    Use it for SOMETHING ELSE (other than “changing the country”)— but “organizers” don’t think like that (except ones on the “left.”)

  3. 70-100 years ago voting could have fixed this, which is why BTP flood our nation full of people who had no idea how things were/ are supposed to be

  4. Meant to say “Is” NC in the bag for Romney? Also, is anyone else having trouble connecting to this site? Over the past month or two I have been getting “temporarily unavailable” messages when trying to get on OD about 50% of the time. It’s the only website I have had this problem with.

  5. I am glad you are giving a lot of coverage to this Hunter. You are a smart cookie and it’s so close to the finish now it wouldn’t be half as fun watching the circus without the input of you and the OD club.

  6. Romney is behind the 8 ball. If Obama wins Ohio, Romney’s path to victory becomes pretty difficult.

    Assuming Obama does win Ohio Romney has to win all of Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, & Nevada. Good luck with that. Hispanics & Liberal whites fleeing California have changed the political face of both Nevada and Colorado.

  7. In 2008, Obama only Ohio with 51.2%, even with a D+8 electorate and an 8 point advantage with Independents.

    How come? It is very significant that McCain won 92 percent of Republicans, but Obama only won 89 percent of Democrats. In other words, McCain won over significantly more Democrats than Obama won over Republicans.

    That’s the only swing state where that happened.

  8. Why do you think they relocated some former Chicago public housing residents to Iowa when they tore down the buildings?

    Nobody actually wants that sub-human garbage as neighbors, but Chicago has enough niggers to guarantee it will always vote Democrat, Iowa doesn’t.

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