West Virginia
In Slate, David Weigel calls attention to the failure of mainstream conservative scribes like Ross Douthat and David Frum to predict the stunning revival of the Republican Party.
Douthat’s book “Grand New Party” advocated taking the “big government conservatism” of George W. Bush and Karl Rove and giving it coherence and sustainability.” Frum’s book “Comeback: How Conservatism That Can Win Again” argued for a “broad national coaltion” in which extremists would be “sidelined” by moderates.
Neither vision panned out.
Michael Steele’s “hip hop makeover” of the Republican Party, which included the laughable “What Up” blog and the multicultural redesign of GOP.com, was a dismal marketing failure with blacks. Similarly, Karl Rove and George W. Bush dreamed of an Anglo-Hispanic coalition that never materialized.
White Nationalists were equally mistaken about the trajectory of the Republican Party. The Far Right didn’t anticipate the Tea Party. Most White Nationalists assumed the GOP would continue its long muddled drift to the Left.
In hindsight, much of what is going on today was entirely predictable, and represents a continuation of long term trends. A few recent news items shed considerable light on what is really going on here.
Tea Leaves
1.) In The Los Angeles Times, a Gallup poll breaks down Barack Obama’s approval rating: 91% of blacks support him, 55% of Hispanics, and 36% of Whites. By region, 52% of Easterners, 45% of Midwesterners and Westerners, and 41% of Southerners.
Moral of the story: Obama has lost White voters in South, West, and Midwest and is only breaking even with them in the East.
2.) John Raese has climbed ahead of Joe Manchin in the West Virginia Senate race. The West Virginia GOP will be planting 2,500 yard signs that simply read “Obama Says ‘Vote Democrat” in this election cycle.
In West Virginia, Obama receives his third highest negative approval rating, a Jacksonian Democrat state full of working class Whites that Bill Clinton twice carried.
Moral of the story: Obama’s dismal unpopularity with Jacksonian Democrats in West Virginia is dragging down Joe Manchin who is a popular governor.
3.) In 2010, only 20% of Americans trust the government “to do the right thing all or most of the time.” After Watergate, the number was 36%. When Eisenhower was president, 76% of Americans trusted the government.
Moral of the story: The federal government has suffered a catastrophic collapse of legitimacy among someone. Who?
4.) In The New York Times, the growing ranks of Independent voters are disgusted by a general sense of malaise in America, not only by the terrible economy.
Moral of the story: The decline of legitimacy in established institutions like Congress and the mass media seems to have deeper causes.
5.) A recent Third Way study shows that liberals comprise only 20% of the electorate. Conservatives are 42% of the electorate. There has been a shift to the Right over the past several years that has come at the expense of liberals and moderates.
Moral of the story: Blacks, Jews, Hispanics, Asians, SWPLs, and homosexuals comprise most of the “liberal” category. The vast majority of Whites are “conservatives” and “moderates.” Obama’s liberal base is too small to make of the atrophy of White conservatives and moderates that are abandoning the Democratic Party.
6.) Now here’s the most revealing story of all:
Working class Whites account for 4 out of 10 voters. A new AP-GfK poll shows that this group now favors Republican candidates 58% to 36% – a 22% margin.
In 2008, working class White broke for Republican congressional candidates by 11% margin. In 2006, Republicans had a 9% edge.
Most of these working class Whites live in the North, Midwest, and Upper South where, as I have repeatedly argued (Jacksonian America, Midwestern Meltdown, Decline in the Dakotas), they are moving into the Republican Party and tipping the scales of power toward the energized conservative base.
Conclusion
The GOP establishment has done everything within its power to alienate White voters and reach out to non-White minorities. In spite of this, the Republican Party is slowly being transformed into the White Party. “Heartland America” is taking shape.
In Permanently Blue, I predicted this would happen. Democratic gains among non-Whites will be offset by much larger Republican gains among Whites. The White vote will consolidate over time. Polarization will eventually drive the “Blues” in the Republican Party into the Democratic Party; the “Reds” in the Democratic Party into the Republican Party.
White Americans will start thinking of themselves as “outsiders.” As non-Whites grow in numbers, they will become more assertive, and White racial consciousness will revive. The legitimacy of established institutions will continue to erode. This erosion will come exclusively from the White side of the electorate.
Two decades from now, America will likely be browner around the edges, teetering on the precipice of bankruptcy (it is really already there), and more racially polarized that it is today. By that time, the “WASP nest” in the Heartland will have transformed the GOP into the “White Party,” which will contend with the “Non-White Party” which will be the Democratic Party.
The David Frums and Ross Douthats of the world won’t see that one coming either.
Yes, but the other side is already making adjustments and the contours of their counterattack is beginning to take shape. Today they floated the idea of putting Hillary on the ballot in 2012. Obama lost especially big to Hillary among working class Whites in the WV primary. They clearly understand they need to do something to stem the mass exodus.
How many of them are fool enough to vote for Donald Trump?
Third party crap is being rolled out as we read. How much do they need a third party shill to shave off the vote?
The Zionist, crony Capitalists always try to wheel out Donald Trump as some Pro American, pro free enterprise third party Presidential candidate when they sense the Red State peasants are getting angry and threatening the powers that be.
When Pat Buchanan did very well – threatening to knock down George Bush Sr. – these powers that be did the same thing with Trump and had Donald go on air slamming Pat for being a RACISt, Anti Semite etc.
I can’t understand why someone never kicked Donald Trump’s a** when he had that stupid show where he humiliates and then fires the people who work for him.
If someone were running third party and they represented real elements of the far right, I would certainly vote for them. I used to be afraid of not supporting some mainstream mediocre kosher conservative because the opposition was worse and my third party vote would be wasted. Not anymore. Obama’s election has effectively destroyed those inhibitions I had because I can see more clearly now who really runs the country and their tentacles reach into both parties. Everyone should vote on principle for who best represents their interests regardless of whether they have a chance of winning. Voting for the lesser of two evils is exactly what they want you to do. They win no matter what happens.
From 2000 until 2006, I voted Democrat to punish Republicans for their sell out on immigration, with the odd vote here and there for a Libertarian down the ticket.
The first Republican that I ever voted for was Jeff Sessions. His performance in fighting the Bush amnesty impressed me. So I voted to reelect him to the Senate.
In 2008, I voted for Ron Paul in the Republican primary. I voted for Chuck Baldwin in the general election because I couldn’t stand McCain or Obama.
I’ve never believed in voting for the “lesser of two evils.” In 2010, I will vote to reelect Richard Shelby to the Senate because he has been pretty reliable on immigration.
I’m also voting for Robert Bentley in the Alabama Governor race. If Bentley becomes Governor and Republicans take over the Alabama state legislature, we have a shot at passing Arizona-style immigration reform here.
Jack,
That reminds me.
The vote that I regret the most was Al Gore in 2000. I had the chance to vote for Pat Buchanan, but I didn’t know who he was at the time. I also regret voting against Terry Everett out of pure hostility toward the GOP. Everett was a reliable vote on immigration in the House.
Note: I’m proud to say that I voted against Bush twice.
We all have our voting skeletons rattling about in closets. No sense in beating ourselves up over them, it’s what we do from here on out that counts..
All very well, but the polarization you speak of will avail us nothing when Whites are a minority. And it looks as though minority status is going to be necessary to prompt it.
Fairly good analysis, until the very end. 20 years? I think things will be radically different in 20 years. The left have been a huge impediment to natural organic change of White Christian society. In the blink of an eye, Whites have become much more conservative. Whites are only beginning to wake up and realize that they are a very small minority in the world, and that the colored races and Jews don’t mean them well.
Coloreds and Jews are on the way out of America, literally. Once the Whites realize that the darkies and Jews never liked them or appreciated their kindness, there will be a reaction. There is going to be a racial battle of some sort eventually. I know it’s hard to make a prediction 20 years in the future. But when change happens, it will be very fast. And it will definitely be within 20 years.
“The West Virginia GOP will be planting 2,500 yard signs “.
Wow, that’s a freakin’ long sign…
(I’m sorry, Hunter, I couldn’t help myself) 🙂
AnalogMan,
75% of the Hispanic population lives in four states – New York, Florida, Texas, and California. Their growing numbers obscures the fact that Whites will still retain a majority in the American Heartland.
Will those Whites forever consent to be taxed to prop up the sagging non-White portion of the electorate? How willing is North Dakota to bail out California? We shall see.
If Whites are so angry over fiscal issues today, how angry do you suppose they will be ten years from now? If Whites say they have “lost their country” today, what will they be saying a decade from now?
39,000 private sector jobs lost in September. First decline since January.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/private-sector-sheds-39000-jobs-in-september-adp-2010-10-06?reflink=MW_news_stmp
If you take nothing away from the post above, it should be that the Democrats are taking a beating with the White working class, which is throwing all sorts of races in the North and Midwest wide open.
The White vote is consolidating. That is destabilizing the elites that have always controlled the Republican Party. Of course it is always possible that the Republicans will blow it with their economic snake oil after the midterms.
But consider this …
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/the-emerging-antitrade-co_b_752622.html
61% of “Tea Party sympathizers” say that trade is bad for America. That’s pretty interesting.
For those that saying voting third party is a wasted vote, I say voting for a candidate to “punish” an entire party is the epitome of a wasted vote. The only vote not wasted is the one given to a candidate you truly believe in. Our votes should be given with critical thinking and not passion or emotion. We’re all responsible, to some degree, for what this country has become!
@ Hunter
I’m glad you picked up on John Raese.
As I mentioned in an earlier comment he has an excellent chance of beating the estimable Joe Manchin.
You are right. Manchin looks like more of the same from Obama.
Btw, among other things Raese owns the Morgantown newspaper.
Anti-incumbancey is running so strong that even questionable Congressional characters like Irish Republican Roman Catholic Tom Ganely may get swept into office. The SEIU, and the NEA have just put approx. $800,000 plus dollars into defeating Ganley. That’s money another candidate won’t get.
“In spite of this, the Republican Party is slowly being transformed into the White Party.”
Slowly?
Try not at all…
1.) Establishment Republicans have lined up against New Hampshire WHite Nationalist Ryan J. Murdough who has attempted to run as a Republican.
2.) Establishment Republicans did the same thing to Jim Russell in New York, who has written articles for the Occidental Quarterly!!
3.) Establishment Republicans also fought Derek Black (son of Don Black) who attempted to gain a seat for Whites on the Palm Beach County Republican Executive Committee!!
These three incidents prove that Republicans are right now in no way, shape, or form Pro-White!! Stop being what Dr. Pierce called ‘lemmings!’
Rubert fails the vision test. I know a few “establishment” folks and they are becoming aware of the culture struggle — including the role jewish leaders and their flock have been playing. Get out a little and maybe you will see it too….
One phrase ready for primetime is “Anti-white” because the taboo against it is in its terminal joke decline phase.
It doesn’t matter what the establishment Republicans are doing as long as they can be ousted from Congress and the party over the next few years and replaced with traditional right candidates.
How many third party/independent candidates ever win? They just serve to peel off votes from one side to throw the election to the other. Often, the independent lost the nomination, and is running just to throw the election and punish the party that rejected him. I stupidly voted for Perot because I thought he could win. As it was, the greater of the two evils won. Did my one vote throw the election? No. But my vote along with others who thought like me, did. I learned my lesson quickly. I’ll take the lesser of two evils every time, because I refuse to be responsible for the greater evil slipping in.
We should try to knock off as many establishment Republicans as possible who support “comprehensive immigration reform” in the primaries.
There are no costs to doing so. The benefits (shifting the political spectrum on immigration) are obvious. This is a realistic goal where we can be making headway right now.
On that point, I agree with you completely.
GOP Will Pay the Price for Rand Paul’s Gaffe by David Frum
“Guess what question will now be asked of every Republican senate and congressional candidate in debates leading up to November 2010? It’s hard to think of a more settled controversy than the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Maybe only the Civil War – which (come to think of it) the elder Ron Paul managed to align himself on the wrong side of in the last cycle… As a libertarian, Rand is likely in favor of the right of suicide. But thanks to him, the damage will now be felt by others too, who will now be called upon to explain where they stand on every fruitbat idea ever aired in back issues of the Ron Paul newsletter. ”
As is often the case, Mr. Frum’s political prognostications are terribly off the mark. The GOP is poised to gain a sigificant amount of congressional seats, and win overwhelming in the state houses and legislatures.
It is refreshing to hear, from time to time, the candid responses from Rand and Ron Paul.
There are times when principle stands and votes by candidates and lawmakers need to be acknowledged and praised.
In 2006, 33 courageous Republican congressmen and women stood up for the interests of the white majority and voted not to extend the contemptuous 1965 Voting Rights Act that treats an entire region of this country as a vassal state under the tutelege of the Congressional Black Caucus.
Under Section five of the Act, the states of Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, Arizona, and Alaska must ask the Justice Department for “permission” before being allowed to change the most trivial voting rules.
Of the 33 members that voted ‘no’ in 2006, 28 are either today running for re-election, in the senate, or running for governor. None were defeated in their re-election races in 2008.
Like Hunter, I voted for Paul and Baldwin, but have never voted for a Democrat. At the state and local level I have voted for a handful of Conservative Party and Independent candidates ( all pro-life). Even one Independent Green candidate for state assembly.
In 2008 I donated to a “Ron Paul Democrat”, Bob Conley, who ran against GOP Senator Lindsey Graham who supported Bush’s amnesty legislation.
I also donated to Bob Kelleher, the pro-life and anti-war Socialist who won the Montana GOP Senate primary. Who would have thought?
The GOP pickings are pretty slim. We can wait and see if the Tea party GOP candidates deliver, but it is time to move in the direction of a third party. The A3P is a good start.
That’s good news that 61% of the Tea Party has common sense about the destructive policy of Unprotected Trade and doesn’t embrace the Neocon-Libertarian cult of economic suicide. Trade is the issue that I am most passionate about as it has stolen my future and tens of millions of other Americans are in the same boat. A very uncontroversial issue to rally around, uncontroversial except to the plutocrats for whom Unprotected Trade is an orthodoxy beyond question the same way as the Heliocentric Universe in the time of Galileo. Except for the fact that Heliocentric vs. Geocentric policy didn’t risk costing of millions of Italians their livelihood 400 years ago, the Unprotected Trade orthodoxy does.
I’ll take the lesser of two evils every time, because I refuse to be responsible for the greater evil slipping in.
Less evil is like being less pregnant. Evil is evil. You aren’t doing yourself any favors by voting for a elitist stooge because the other candidate is more forward about their anti-White motives than the other. Take the Presidential race in 2012. Sarah Palin is political poison with the paleocon/libertarian/anti-war/fiscal conservative coalition that’s forming to make the new right. She will not gain the support of a wide swath of conservatives to take the White House and I certainly won’t vote for her out of fear of another four years of Obama. If she loses it will radicalize people further and push them more further to the right. We want to drag them to us not be pulled in the other direction.
Wow, many clueless people here that still believe in Jew bought Democracy. No candidates will ever give the people want they want. They are not paid or promoted by the electorate.
Hunter – How willing is North Dakota to bail out California? We shall see.
That’s the crux, isn’t it? Equally interesting questions would be, What choice will North Dakota have? What will ND do about it? How will the Federal government respond? How many states will stand by ND? See where this is going? We’re talking about the break-up of the USA again.
But if the non-Whites have a voting majority at the national level, why would they allow their cash cow to go its own way? They basically would own the country; why should they give any of it up?
On the other hand, if the Mexican majority in California should opt for a replay of Kosovo, what moral right would the FedGov have to object?
The only hope for any peaceful resolution that doesn’t involve abject surrender is for Whites – all of them – to stand up for themselves while they still have the power. That window is rapidly closing.
There is no white awakening, at least not yet. Yes, racial tensions have been agitated a bit by Obammie, yet the vast majority of conservatives would not have made a peep if it weren’t for the banksters siphoning off their cushy retirement monies. Conservatives still hold the same liberal assumptions they had under Bush Jr. They still send their children to the government indoctrination camps, though most will admit that it is full of Marxist poison. They still do not fight against their children and grandchildren marrying non-whites, as you can see by the growing number of non-white grandchildren. They still do not care one wit for preservering and advancing higher culture; couldn’t care less. Their churches are all obsessed with multiculturalism and women take ever more power over the “men” there.
Once the economy comes back, you will see. Conservatives are milquetoast losers. Always have been, always will be. By definition and temperament, they merely want to conserve the status quo and are not interested in change back to traditionalism. It’s too hard, people might get mad at them, it would be pushy to fight openly, et cetera. Look at the GOP’s platform. They are not for a rollback of most of the liberal advances so far. They plan to reverse only some of Bush’s and Obama’ health care legislation, and they are so clueless, pigheaded and afraid of being called names that they will not even achieve this. It will be the Contract with America all over again. You must look for salvation elsewhere.
Thw USA’s growing non-White population will eventually force White Americans into de facto slavery akin to what exists in South Africa today. In SA, there is a small, productive White minority being taxed to death to support millions of unproductive Blacks, while suffering rapes, muggings and other persecution. And there is nothing SA Whites can do about it because they have no power.
That’s why Mexicans are unlikely to go the Kosovo route. They won’t form a separate country because they need a base of productive White labor to tax once the mass exodus of Whites out of the southwest is complete.
If conservatives are losers, what does that make White Nationalists? Granted, conservatives haven’t conserved much, but White Nationalists have conserved even less.
At least the conservatives have power. Sometimes they use power in ways that advance our interests. White Nationalists have no power and following. They pose no threat to the status quo.
It will prove easier to get conservatives to take a harder line than to get White Nationalists to do anything. I know that for a fact.
Bad analogy. Pregnant is pregnant. it results in one thing. Evil has degrees. Variables. Policies are different. Platforms are different. By voting for the lesser evil, you won’t get everything you want, but you can get some of what you want. Something is better than nothing. It’s a slow progress, but it’s progress. And again, the way the system is stacked now, a vote for a third party just throws an election to the greater evil.
@Alex
Sarah Palin is political poison with the paleocon/libertarian/anti-war/fiscal conservative coalition that’s forming to make the new right. She will not gain the support of a wide swath of conservatives to take the White House and I certainly won’t vote for her out of fear of another four years of Obama. If she loses it will radicalize people further and push them more further to the right. We want to drag them to us not be pulled in the other direction.
Unlike the Cloward-Piven gang, and apparently you too, I don’t think we have to destroy the country to save it
But I get it, yours is simply an anti-Palin post. Love her or hate her, what polls are you reading that makes you think Obama can beat her? Unless of course, Duke, or some other third party candidate throws the election.
“Granted, conservatives haven’t conserved much, but White Nationalists have conserved even less.”
I agree, although I don’t consider your definition of WN accurate, namely that WN is made up of skinheads and costume nazis. I think WN has a much broader membership than that.
My point is that unless conservatives stop being conservative and change into something else, they will not be a force for any real change. They are simple incapable of doing anything substantive by themselves. If they were led properly and orderly under the right circumstances, en masse, then they could — and would — but not in their present state. Things will be much worse before they take action and change from conservatism/soft liberalism.
AAMOF, I have some conservatives hint to me that that is exactly what they are looking for — a messiah. GD, they got Chuck Freakin Norris, what more do they need? Which illustrates another problem: even if the messiah did come, none would recognize him.
And I’ll give conservatives two points: 1) they have actually helped to make gun ownership and use easier and more effective over the last decade or so, and 2) they did not resist homeschooling too much when it was first made legal a few years ago (they’re mostly in favor of it now, at least in theory — most of them recognize they’d have to work if they actually practiced it).
And to try to avoid curmudgeon status here today, I’ll add that things will change for the better someday and our efforts at preparation will eventually bear fruit. If not for us, then for our descendants.
In my experience, conservatives are naive and misguided, but I wouldn’t go so far as to say they are “evil” people. The fact is, there was once a time when 99% of White Nationalists didn’t know the truth about race and Jews. Of all our problems, simple ignorance has consistently been shown to be the easiest to cure.
Voting for the lesser of two evils is a retarded idea. It does make sense to vote for someone though when you are likely to get something in return. There are a number of Senators and Congressmen who are fairly good on issues like immigration. We should be trying to increase their numbers.
Rusty,
If we want conservatives to change, we must be willing to work with them, and gain influence in their circles. Right now awareness that conservatives have been “betrayed” by their leaders is at an all time high.
Shouldn’t we be taking advantage of that sentiment? If you grant the point, what sense does it make to browbeat people and treat them like the enemy when they are growing more receptive toward giving us a hearing?
It’s fine.
I sounded like a curmudgeon myself through much of August and September!
“Shouldn’t we be taking advantage of that sentiment? If you grant the point, what sense does it make to browbeat people and treat them like the enemy when they are growing more receptive toward giving us a hearing?”
Of course. I am just expressing frustration to comrades here, as well as introducing some hard reality. My approach *to* conservatives differs considerably. Shock me by telling me that conservatives actually read and consider our sites.
But I get it, yours is simply an anti-Palin post. Love her or hate her, what polls are you reading that makes you think Obama can beat her? Unless of course, Duke, or some other third party candidate throws the election.
It’s not an anti-Palin post. I’m sure she’s a nice lady but she would be ineffective in formenting any real change. She’s George Bush in a skirt, John McCain in drag, and millions of people stayed home during the election because they didn’t like either choice. She will not pass the smell test and we will end up with another 4 years of Obama. Of course, assuming the primaries aren’t fixed it’s all in the hands of the voters. Choose wisely.
My approach *to* conservatives differs considerably. Shock me by telling me that conservatives actually read and consider our sites.
I’m conservative and I read this site as often as I can. I agree with Hunter the vast majority of the time, differing only on what are to me, minor points. Maybe we just differ on the definition of conservative. Don’t paint us all with the same brush.
The New York Post is an OD Twitter follower.
She will not pass the smell test and we will end up with another 4 years of Obama. Of course, assuming the primaries aren’t fixed it’s all in the hands of the voters. Choose wisely.
One last point:
It looks to me like the Democratic primary was fixed. Pelosi crowned Obama king, they didn’t even vote. I think everything up to the election is fixed on both sides. And McCain? How else can you explain his nomination? And given the nominees, there’s pretty much a pre-ordained election outcome too. It takes a wrench in the works to throw it. That’s why no matter who ever wins, we’re at war. I think the establishment GOP underestimated Palin as VP choice. A pretty face and empty head, the bumpkin from Wasilla who would add nothing substantial to the ticket. Yet many conservatives held their nose and voted McCain because of Palin, not in spite of her. She’s not stupid, although she’s surely been ignorant of certain issues. But she’s a quick study. And she knows the game is rigged, just like it was in Alaska, and that’s exactly why she’s doing what she’s doing. Picking, endorsing, building support, so she has a chance against the establishment GOP. She may not be the whitest candidate out there, but she’s the whitest who can actually win. And I don’t think we’ll have that many more chances.
The woman campaigned for John McCain in Arizona and she was with Glen Beck at that MLK worship fest. She is the establishment GOP, a media celebrity like Obama and I’ve never heard her say anything in that muddled word salad that comes out of her mouth that would get anyone enthusiastic about voting for her. Ron Paul is a much better choice and has a better shot at the White House than she does.
Ron Paul is a much better choice and has a better shot at the White House than she does.
Ron Paul IS a better choice, and in my opinion, so is Buchanan. But at this point, I just don’t see Paul getting nominated and elected. If he at least gets nominated, he’s got my vote.
The only people saying Palin is unelectable are progressives, and the same establishment GOP that opposes her endorsements. You can deny her base, just don’t underestimate it.
You know that’s not true. A great deal of people don’t like her on the conservative side either. The GOP might pretend to oppose her but I noticed the RNC has put her name in big letters on their weekly fund raising letters they mail out to me. I’m sure the rest of you that have voted GOP in the past are getting them as well. Sarah Palin is part of the establishment GOP.
Sarah Palin doesn’t represent the GOP establishment. That’s for sure.
Why has Michael Steele hired her to be their fundraising spokesman?
The GOP establishment can’t afford to alienate her fickle supporters.