BRA
(1) Romney over Obama in the NPR/Democracy Corps poll, 49-48. Kosher Republic says this is a D+4 poll.
(2) Richard Cohen of the Wash Post contemplates jumping off the Obama ship.
(3) Gallup finds a 22 point swing in early voting from 2008 that puts Romney ahead by 7 points.
(4) Newsmax/Zogby finds Romney ahead by 1 point.
(5) The big news of the day is the Pew poll which finds Romney ahead by 1 point, but with a strong turnout advantage on election day.
(6) As Clinton heads to Minnesota and Biden heads to Pennsylvania, there has been a massive swing in Ohio in early voting over 2008.
(7) The guts of the Pew poll are revealing: gender gap shrinking to a 20 year low, a large intensity gap on election day in favor of Republicans, Obama is down 13 percent with younger voters over 2008, Romney is up 11 over McCain with seniors, Obama is 6 points ahead of Romney with the middle of the electorate which is where he was at with McCain in 2008.
(8) In The New York Times Magazine, another critical Matt Bai article: Still Waiting for the Narrator in Chief.
We’ll know soon enough if these polls are meaningful. Silver bumped Romney to 27% this morning, up from 23.
Nate Silver loves sports analogies, right?
In 2010, Auburn won the BCS National Championship. Cam Newton and Nick Fairley went to the NFL. Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn later went to Arkansas State. A huge number of seniors on Auburn’s championship team graduated.
In 2012, Auburn is 1-7 and 0-7 in the SEC, and is having its worst football season since the 1950s. There is a night and day difference between Auburn football in the 2010 season and the 2012 season.
What’s the moral of the story? Auburn had a really great year in 2010, but wasn’t able to duplicate that success in 2011 and 2012. Auburn fans aren’t naive enough to assume the 2010 championship team is going up against #7 Georgia and #1 Alabama in the remainder of Auburn’s season.
Interestingly enough, that’s exactly what many of these state polls are assuming. They are using samples of the electorate weighted towards the best Democratic turnout performance in 20 years.
Many of these polls assume that the last four years never even happened and that the 2012 electorate will be a mirror of the 2008 electorate. Some even go so far as to assume that 2012 will be an even better Democratic year than the 2008 election. That is ludicrous given that Independents are breaking against Obama and put him over the top in half a dozen swing states in 2008.
If you skewed the sample hard enough toward the Democrats, you could easily find Obama winning Mississippi and Texas.
Any thoughts on how hurricane Sandy might affect the election? Obama supposedly cancelled appearances at important campaign events to deal with it at the White House. Sounds a lot like McCain in 2008 to me.
The University of Colorado model has Romney winning 300+ electoral votes. I haven’t had time to look at what they do.
Assume the Democrats are the Auburn 2010 team and Obama is still the Cam Newton of Hope and Change. Then he is even to slightly behind!
Hunter, were you able to read my vdare draft in OD draft form? Thanks Hunter.
I will take a look at it this evening.
Thank You.