National Journal
” The poll’s finding of a 50-45 Obama advantage in the presidential race highlights the central uncertainty surrounding the blizzard of late campaign polling: What will the partisan and racial composition of the actual electorate look like?
In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time.”
Note: Assuming Democrats have an even bigger year than 2008 and Obama is even more of a rockstar than he was then … well then, Obama is ahead by 5!
These pollsters are whistling past the graveyard.
http://thehill.com/opinions/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide
There is absolutely no reason to believe Obama will have a 2008 electorate. It assumes a level of Obama favorabiliity, Democrat enthusiasm, Bush fatigue, and Republican demoralization that no longer exists.
It takes the best Democrat showing in 20 years, makes it the benchmark of Democrat performance, and this poll even assumes an EVEN BETTER performance by Obama and a lower White turnout than 2008 which as down in absolute terms from 2004.
Look, we can say definitively that the 2008 model is wildly unrealistic: early voting has already started and it doesn’t show any indication of 2012 being a D+8 wave election in the swing states.
http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide
These polls are meant to influence those who want to vote for the winner.
Very political in nature, not informational at all.
If you were a Republican shill, would you be talking about a potential landslide in this election if you weren’t pretty confident in what you were saying? Me, I’d hedge if I weren’t. I’d only stick my neck out like that if I was pretty sure of myself, because the downside is too big otherwise.