Ohio
PPP has a fresh poll out of Ohio likely voters which also shows Obama with a 5 point lead in Ohio!!!
Note: You can check the internals of the poll here. Skip down to the Party ID at Question 10.
PPP assumes the 2012 electorate in Ohio will be 45% Democrat, 36% Republican, and 19% percent Independent. In other words, this is a D+9 poll that gives Obama a five point lead in Ohio due to turnout on election day. Compare that to the Quinnipiac/New York Times CBS poll of Ohio out this morning which was a D+8 poll.
How does that compare to Obama’s actual performance in Ohio in the 2008 electorate? In 2008, the electorate in Ohio at the height of Obama’s popularity was 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent, and he only edged out a 51.7% victory over McCain because more Democrats voted Republican than vice versa.
In this PPP poll, the working assumption which gives Obama a 5 point lead is that the 2012 electorate will be 6% more Democrat, 5% less Republican, and 11% less Independent than it was in 2008! Talk about stacking the deck!
Are we seeing a D+9 electorate in Ohio in early voting?
We will know in less than 150 hours.
I hope folks will be as energetic Nov 7th fighting for a new nation as they are fighting to “save” the old one.
That would really be admirable.
Southeaster Ohio and the Ohio River Valley will give it to Romney.
Those people have only seen life get worse in the last four years.
Since he has been elected they have seen aluminum mills, steel mills, power plants, and auto assembly plants close. Those jobs paid well and they aren’t ever coming back and they know that because have neighbors this has happened to in the past.
“One time” was enough.
Private equity is not the vulture people think it is, it’s not Gordon Gecko any more. It is what does what needs to be done to keep a company in business. The magical nigger Herman Cain is technically private equity, but he and his cohorts made a bad bet and that is why they still own it.
@Afterthought
“I hope folks will be as energetic Nov 7th fighting for a new nation as they are fighting to “save” the old one.”
– Oh here we go… LOL, so exactly what is this “new nation” you’re going about?
“- Oh here we go… LOL, so exactly what is this “new nation” you’re going about?”
Chris, not everyone is fine with BRA like you are.
Ohio Copperheads frustrating the Northeastern liberal plans for an Obama second term “mandate.”
Now that’s a LOL!
Obama better stay away from Copperhead Ohio…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhMO9azmKNU
Deo Vindice
Karl Rove isn’t buying it either:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion
Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.
In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side’s closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
I hope you are right Hunter.
Apuleius and 313Chris, why fight about Ohio will go, just hope it goes the right way. Otherwise it means white people are voting to live like niggers, dependent on government.
I grew up on the other side of the Ohio River. It’s whiter (West Virginia pays shitty welfare (that’s how you get rid of them)) but still very majority white.
The “Earned Income Tax Credit” has to go. A west-side Chicago welfare negress who doesn’t work gets my money back? Fuck that. Her “chidren” are my FUCKING dependents. Give me the fucking credit.
I can wrap my head around the weapon ization of polling, but at a certain point it begins to look like criminal fraud. Are there no laws to govern this industry? No workhouses for the surplus pollster?
The new nation I hope my sons and grandsons live is like this and not what lincoln and the yankees gave us
=========
I received with great pleasure your favor of June 4, and am much comforted by the appearance of a change of opinion in your state; for though we may obtain, and I believe shall obtain, a majority in the legislature of the United States, attached to the preservation of the federal Constitution, according to its obvious principles and those on which it was known to be received; attached equally to the preservation to the states of those rights unquestionably remaining with them; friends to the freedom of religion, freedom of the press, trial by jury, and to economical government; opposed to standing armies, paper systems, war, and all connection, other than commerce, with any foreign nation; in short, a majority firm in all those principles which we have espoused, and the Federalists have opposed uniformly, still, should the whole body of New England continue in opposition to these principles of government, either knowingly or through delusion, our government will be a very uneasy one. It can never be harmonious and solid while so respectable a portion of its citizens support principles which go directly to a change of the federal Constitution, to sink the state governments, consolidate them into one, and to monarchise that.
Our country is too large to have all its affairs directed by a single government. Public servants, at such a distance, and from under the eye of their constituents, must, from the circumstance of distance, be unable to administer and overlook all the details necessary for the good government of the citizens; and the same circumstance, by rendering detection impossible to their constituents, will invite the public agents to corruption, plunder, and waste. And I do verily believe that if the principle were to prevail, of a common law being in force in the United States (which principle possesses the general government at once of all the powers of the state governments, and reduces us to a single consolidated government), it would become the most corrupt government on the earth. You have seen the practices by which the public servants have been able to cover their conduct, or, where that could not be done, delusions by which they have varnished it for the eye of their constituents. What an augmentation of the field for jobbing, speculating, plundering, office building, and office hunting would be produced by an assumption of all the state powers into the hands of the general government!
The true theory of our Constitution is surely the wisest and best, that the states are independent as to everything within themselves, and united as to everything respecting foreign nations. Let the general government be reduced to foreign concerns only, and let our affairs be disentangled from those of all other nations, except as to commerce, which the merchants will manage the better the more they are left free to manage for themselves, and our general government may be reduced to a very simple organization, and a very unexpensive one–a few plain duties to be performed by a few servants. But, I repeat that this simple and economical mode of government can never be secured if the New England States continue to support the contrary system. I rejoice, therefore, in every appearance of their returning to those principles which I had always imagined to be almost innate in them.
In this state, a few persons were deluded by the X. Y. Z. duperies. You saw the effect of it in our last congressional representatives, chosen under their influence. This experiment on their credulity is now seen into, and our next representation will be as republican as it has heretofore been. On the whole, we hope that, by a part of the Union having held on to the principles of the Constitution, time has been given to the states to recover from the temporary frenzy into which they had been decoyed, to rally round the Constitution, and to rescue it from the destruction with which it had been threatened even at their own hands.
Source: Memoirs, Correspondence, and Private Papers of Thomas Jefferson, vol. 3, Thomas Jefferson Randolph, ed., 1829, pp. 444-446.
http://www.britannica.com/presidents/article-9116899
“I can wrap my head around the weapon ization of polling, but at a certain point it begins to look like criminal fraud. Are there no laws to govern this industry? No workhouses for the surplus pollster?”
*Fraud: Good! Let ’em agitate and whine about a clear victory that went against their poll-based expectations. Just improves the chances of national break-up. You’ll eventually feel less bad if you have to start shooting white hipsters in the sweater-vest.
*Surplus pollsters: And what exactly should be done with all those poly-sci and eastern-religion majors? I certainly don’t want them working with me. Its a good thing they get a make-work program every few years to keep them out of the way of productive people with real jobs.
Ohio’s going to Romney. I can’t put it any more plainly than that.
Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
I’m going to call it 50-47, so the zero gets his “47 percent,” lol.