Minnesota
After a solid year of BRA’s media talking about nothing but “the Hispanic vote” … at the end of the day it comes down to the old vanilla White working class vote in the Rustbelt.
“And while they’re obsessing over the minute details of often-questionable polling, they’re missing the fundamental story of this election: President Obama is on track to perform at a historically low level among white voters, and he needs to compensate by attracting overwhelming support from minorities, along with a big turnout by them.
The story is the same no matter which poll is your personal favorite. Pew, one of the most respected in the business, showed Obama winning only 37 percent of likely white voters. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Obama stuck at 36 percent. Gallup’s weekly tracking found his approval rating among whites at 38 percent. Even Public Policy Polling, a Democratic robo-polling firm skewered by the Right, finds Obama’s job approval at 39 percent in its tracking. If Obama can’t hit 40 percent, he badly needs to maximize the minority and youth turnout that comprise his base.”
White voters and their importance are a huge topic of conversation in the US news:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/31/how-much-of-the-white-vote-will-show-up-on-nov-6.html
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/25/politics/obama-40-percent/index.html
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/Ken-Walshs-Washington/2012/10/29/obama-coming-up-short-with-white-voters
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82951.html
http://prospect.org/article/have-white-voters-been-taken-granted
http://thegrio.com/2012/10/25/on-election-day-its-white-voters-vs-everyone-else/
OD at a fever pitch: 147 hours to go.
The trouble with national polls: Two nations, one poll…
I need to have a convincing rationale for believing that the polling is deliberately skewed.
Here are my theories.
1. They are spiking the figures to keep jigs from rioting before election day.
2. They have massive bets on Romney winning and want to hide his real support.
3. They are desperately attempting to prop up Obama.
These are not mutually exclusive ideas. Anyone else have an answer to the polling that shows Obama ahead?
Anyone else have an answer to the polling that shows Obama ahead?
I hope (for sheer entertainment at this stage) it’s to build of the hopes of Obama-worshipers the world over until election day when the White man crushes him ; )
Anyone else have an answer to the polling that shows Obama ahead?
Possibly, he’s simply ahead.
I need to have a convincing rationale for believing that the polling is deliberately skewed.
Sounds like you have some dubious premises there. I don’t believe it’s being deliberately skewed. There’s some interaction there (society vs. pollsters, justice dept. vs. pollsters) that gives them one hand doesn’t know what the other’s doing style cover. I.e., the pollsters can just blame outside forces – plausibly – and the outside forces can plausibly deny. Everyone gets to wash their hands of responsibility.
Here are my theories.
1. They are spiking the figures to keep jigs from rioting before election day.
Riots tend to be spontaneous, but, maybe. I tend to think the shock would be more likely to trigger a riot, but maybe the recent poster was right, and blacks riot to celebrate. LA Riots would seem to run counter.
2. They have massive bets on Romney winning and want to hide his real support.
I’m not much of a gambler. Care to explain this? Running up the odds against before they make their bets for, I guess?
3. They are desperately attempting to prop up Obama.
Possible. No doubt many have sympathies. But 0bama sympathy could just amount to them looking the other way, it doesn’t prove deliberate malfeasance. IMO negligence is the best you can get them on.
My take is that they are running cheap, crappy polls, and cheap, crappy polls tend to favor Dems because they have the putz vote all sewn up; putzes tend to sit on their couches and agree with the cute announcer-lady on their televisions, but the moment you start setting up barriers, you start disproportionately eliminating them from the pool of successful people. I.e., they have to get off the couch and go wait in line, or get a ballot to send in, etc. Dems also have the passive-aggressives on the rolls; the people who tell strangers what they’re supposed to tell them (“I’m votin for the messiah!”) and do what they want to do anyway (vote R, stay home, whatever).
Apart from that John B, duh! Of course that’s one possibility.
One explanation is that polls are expensive to conduct properly. We are broke these days and cannot afford well conducted polls staffed by expert interviewers. The polling itself is often like a 1984 Yugo.
The expensive well staffed poll firms are becoming rarer in this economic climate.
“The polling itself is often like a 1984 Yugo.”
Complete with theme song, “Buy a little freedom, buy a Mulatto…”
Deo Vindice
Why would anyone assume a D+9 electorate? That’s the real question. There is nothing to justify the assumption of a D+9 electorate – particularly early voting – which strongly suggests a very different 2012 electorate.
Even the polls which show a D+9 electorate show around a 10 point Republican turnout advantage and Romney winning Independents by a wide margin.
So why a D+8 or a D+9 electorate? Why assume that Republicans will underperform McCain in 2008 and Obama will overperform his 2008 showing just to win a narrow race?
The polls make no sense with the D+9 sample. That’s why there is such a huge gap between the state and national polls.
So the state polls are D+9 ~ ?
And the national polls are D+4 and show a radical different reality.
But why? Side bets? Cheapness? Negrophilia? Fellow traveling?
Right on the mark, Hunter. Especially since Romney has performed far, far better on the campaign trail than McCain ever did, and the bloom is off the rose when it comes to Obama’s “Hope and Change.”
Call it the “mendacity of hope,” if you will.
Deo Vindice
Charlie Sykes on MU Law poll. Absurd is the word.
Another day, another skewed poll that over-samples Democrats and under-weights Republicans.
The only thing consistent about Wednesday’s MU Law poll is its penchant for wild, unexplained swings in voter sentiment.
In a year in which the numbers have moved only incrementally, MU would have us believe that Wisconsin voters have experienced massive– and largely unexplained — mood swings in the last few weeks.
Recall that in September, MU reported a stunning 18 point swing in the senate race that transformed a 9 point Thompson lead into a 9 point Baldwin lead in just a month
That swing also turned a 3 point Obama lead (August) into a 14 point Obama lead (September).
On closer inspection,it turned out that the September MU poll had a +11 Dem sample. Jeff Wagner called that poll “embarrassingly inaccurate and it makes me wonder what’s going on at Marquette.”
Two weeks later, the whiplash continued: MU discovered another seismic shift in the electorate, reporting that both races were essentially tied, with Romney down by 1; Thompson up by 1. That poll had a +1 Dem sample — a 10 pt swing in just a month.
Today, it comes out with a poll with another big shift: Obama 51; Romney 43. Baldwin 47 Thompson 43.
One GOP insider dismissed the result with a single word: “‘absurd.”
MU’s new likely voter Party ID is 44 GOP, 49 DEM. That is a +5 Dem sample on election day. Other pollsters are predicting a +1 Dem turnout based on the enthusiasm of GOP voters and leaners. Those polls also show Romney/Thompson also leading among independents. (Rasmussen has Wisconsin at Romney 49-Obama 49.)
So the direct comparison of likely voter samples from Marquette is:
Last time (10/14), sample was -1 GOP, Romney was -1, Thompson was +1
This time (10/30), sample is -5 GOP, Romney is -8, and Thompson is -4.
MU’s latest sample suggests that this election will be 2008 all over again.
I’m not buying it and neither are political insiders I talked with today.
“I don’t know about you but this election and campaign feels nothing like 2008 – a lifeless GOP base combined with a Dem enthusiasm that I have never seen before – but I know we won’t this year,” one insider says.
If the turnout is closer to the +1 Dem model, then both the presidential and senate race “will be a photo finish.”
**
My colleague Brian Fraley is also skeptical. He writes: “This result makes me question the accuracy of the entire poll:”
Who’d do better job on the economy?
Obama 49% Romney 47%
Think that’s weird? Take a look at the results of the foreign policy question.
Who’d do better job on foreign policy?
Obama 54% Romney 40%
The challenger bled among independents in the last two weeks? Why, because of the debates?
If this poll is to believed, the Presidential race is actually closer in MN, MI and PA.
” Why would anyone assume a D+9 electorate?That’s the real question. There is nothing to justify the assumption of a D+9 electorate”
Because they intend to cheat, or need to factor in cheating, or are getting word from higher up to mislead the country in the remaining days to keep the sheeple incredulous at an obama loss…..so they can later claim Romney stole the election.
Breitbart is pointing out the same thing:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/CBS-romney-posts-big-leads-among-independents
Of course, since this poll was commissioned by CBS, they are downplaying these results. Instead, Quinnipiac University, who conducted the poll, oversampled Democrats by a ridiculous amount to show Obama with a 5 point lead in OH and tied in VA and FL. To get this result, Quinnipiac had to juice the poll to show Democrats with a bigger turnout advantage than they enjoyed in 2008.
There are few things certain in life, but you can count on Democrats not repeating the massive turnout they enjoyed in 2008.
That year, Democrats had an 8 point advantage in OH. They had a 6 point advantage in VA and a 3 point advantage in FL. It was their biggest turnout advantage in at least three decades. Quinnipiac, almost fraudulently, assumes Democrats will have the same advantage in OH next week, but will enlarge their advantage in the other two states. VA, according to Quinnipiac will go from D+6 to D+8. Florida, amazingly, will go from D+3 to D+7, more than doubling the Democrat turnout advantage. In a state where rhe GOP has added more voters and the Dems have lost voters!
For many reasons beyond common sense, the Democrats will not replicate their 2008 turnout advantage in these states. CBS is simply dangling a bright shiny object in front of you to obscure what’s really going on. Independents are breaking hard for Romney. And, they will deliver all three states to him on Tuesday.
The white working class in the north is reliably negrophillic when the chips are down so please beware. They are hip deep in BRA and find excuses to prolong it whenever they get the chance.
Same guy makes the point that it’s intentional here, but with less nefarious reasons: mainly to damped fun raising. That makes sense I suppose, but not so late in the game.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/25/media-polls-are-the-latest-negative-campaign-ad
John is spot on regarding Northerners.
Regardless of the polls, I would still put my money on Obama. It would be a shame, after all, not to give People of Color their choice.
I’m in Brazil now and their MSM (Globo) is as bad if not worse than ours in instilling white guilt, negro worship, atheism and communism. They gave one of their “outspoken” (more like unchallenged) commie spokesmouth post news editorial time snd I kid you not, he said if Mitt Romney was elected it would bode extremely bad for the world.
See Chris Christie. He can’t even maintain party discipline for a few days. The fat fugger just fellated Obama on TV.
“….The white working class in the north is reliably negrophillic when the chips are down so please beware….”
My favorite revisionism of the week was in a book about early Virginia: the well-educated researcher claimed that “the people who came to the North” were motivated by religious reasons and were a religious people. By contrast, the Virginians were motivated only by money…”
And so it went on. In other words: The Southerners are THE REAL YANKEES.
THUS—- is the endless narrative of the “New South.”
Now that the Northeasterns are IN THE SOUTH, they must scramble to come up with New (Bullshit) Narratives about who they are and how they got there. (Hint: it never has anything to do with aggressive taker-dom warfare, burning others cities to the ground, using tax dollars to move their populations en masse and displacing White people, burning their birth records which is part of genocide, or passing economically disabling Acts like outlawing Tobacco in the Tobacco Acts, and so on… as how they get their homes.)
Alert: Southerners are the REAL Yankees!
Yes… they WERE the (dreaded) “Bible Belt” (code for protestant heretics worthy of being killed for heresy in Auto Da Fe’s like Waco)—- BUT NOW they did not go to the “Bible Belt” for Religion—- but only for MONEY.
The circles of total ignorant Self-Justification of Northeasterns knows no bounds, apparently.
Is there any truth in them, whatsoever?
—- oh—
the point was, all candidates should suit them— seemingly being some serious BS artistes.
wow, a site for seemingly educated r a c 1 sts! how refreshing! I was wondering under what rock “you people” lived. What’s a jig? a w ite c0ward? and where can a jig buy a mulatto? It’s apparent now how inbreeding leads to infertility and retardation, xenophobia and fear of annialation. hope electing a pathological liar is worth it
Just looking at a ‘Dumb-crap-ic state’ (mine- MN) Jeppo had stats of elections and how states electoral college votes went, and I collated these stats.
72R (Nixon/McGovern)
76 D (Carter/Ford)
80 D (Reagan/Carter)
84 D (Reagan/Mondale – only DC voted with MN on that one!)
88 D (Bush/ Dukakis)
92 D (Clinton/Bush)
96 D (Clinton/Dole)
00 D (Bush/Gore)
04 D (Bush/Kerry)
08 D (Obama/McCain)
As you can see, MN has been ‘blue’ for so long, I think it forgets there are any other colors out there, other than frozen ice!
Yet, the polls have MN – Minnesota(!) only ‘leaning to Obama’ for the ’12 election. How can a ‘solidly democratic state’ like MN be only ‘leaning’ for the Mulatto in chief, I ask you? (Perhaps it’s this bogus gay marriage amendment, that’s taken away the focus from his Obummerness, or the amendment to have ID for voting in MN.)
If there is even a shade of a chance, the monolithic nature of the Bolshevik state on the Mississippi might just wake up and join the rest of the nation, in NOT voting Demon-crapic this time around. Just sayin’……
Go fuck yourself, English John. There’s not a more shameless negrophilic people on earth than the British. You cowards deposed a man like Ian Smith, one of your own blood, and replaced him with the most incompetent, despotic bush-niggers to ever walk the earth, and even “knighted” the monkey, LOL! You worms surrendered every one of your colonies in Africa to people like Idi Amin Dada, and then invited their children and grandchildren to come and live in your country, and rape and miscegenate with your women, and collect welfare, and burn down your cities. And you think Northern Americans are negrophiles… Fucking idiot, have you ever even been outside your faux-Southern state of Missouri? Have you ever spent any time in the real South? I’ll bet you wouldn’t like it very much. Ever been to the upper Midwest of the East Coast aside from NYC? I’ll bet you haven’t at all. And yet you have the fucking nerve to insult an entire region and a people that you know absolutely nothing about. And what the fuck is it to you anyway, Englishman? Will you be voting next week?
Swim home, English John. This AMERICAN election doesn’t concern you.
At least the British never willfully murdered fellow whites to impose negro emancipation upon them. Brits are too fair minded for their own good, but only treacherous politicians are to blame for the race replacement policies they are forced to endure.
Some other people here have actively worked against the interests of white people in Amurrica. They persist in upholding the anti-white system of BRA in spite of the enormous catastrophe they have inflicted on themselves and their fellow countrymen.
If you have trouble identifying them, just remember that their homelands will all be colored blue on election day.
Deo Vindice
“These are not mutually exclusive ideas. Anyone else have an answer to the polling that shows Obama ahead?”
Before this started i was expecting a lower Obama vote than last time *and* a lower Romney vote than McCain leading to an Obama win.
The lower Obama vote is obvious.
The lower Romney vote is less so. I was expecting Romney to do worse than McCain and Bush because although the Democrats are explicitly anti-white the Republicans are explicitly anti-bluecollar leaving white bluecollar voters with nowhere to go. In recent years patriotardism and The War Against Terror has partially compensated for that in favor of the GOP but i was expecting that to have mostly played out – and i think it has – leading to a lot of abstentions among that demographic . Neocon foreign policy is a negative for Romney with that demographic now whereas it was a plus for earlier candidates.
That was my analysis before but i’m wondering now if this election, especially the first debate, has sparked the seismic ethnicity-based re-alignment that was always going to be the result of balkanization eventually?
HW and others,
Have a look at this t-shirt slogan:
White man pictured with ‘Put the WHITE back in the White House’ t-shirt