TCJ Research Oregon Poll: Obama 47, Romney 45 (D+5)


Check this out.

Update: In 2008, Obama soundly defeated McCain in Oregon, 57.1% to 40.8%.

The CNN exit polls in Oregon show that the 2008 electorate was 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, and 37% Independentit was a D+9 electorate. This is actually less than Michigan in 2008 which was a D+11 electorate. Ohio and Nevada each had a D+8 electorate in 2008.

In 2008, 92% of Democrats in Oregon voted for Obama, 89% of Republicans voted for McCain, and Independents broke decisively for Obama, 59% to 36%. The TCJ Research poll assumes the 2012 electorate will be 33% Democrat, 28% Republican, and 39% Unaffiliated/Other.

Compared to 2008, TCJ Research assumes the Oregon electorate in 2012 will be 3% less Democrat, 1% more Republican, 2% more Independent. This is significantly less of a stretch of the imagination than the PPP Ohio poll, the National Journal poll, or the Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS poll.

Note: They also have Obama with a 3 point lead in Minnesota. The Oregonian poll has Obama with a 6 point lead.

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  1. I live in Oregon, in a pretty blue area, although not as blue as Portland proper.
    I’ve seen almost NO Obama signs, posters, buttons, or even bumper stickers. I find it really unlikely that Romney will win here, but there’s no enthusiasm whatsoever for Obama. Contrast that with 4 years ago…

  2. The Messiah vote is dead this time around. One person I know went around and bragged about the only vote in her 63 years was for Obama, and I guarantee this time around she is back to putzing around the house oblivious to such “not nice” things as politics. The Obama voters I know are typical SWPL set and their mouths are shut this time around since Bush/Cheney are not on the ballot, they still might vote but I guarantee you not at the levels for O like 2008.

  3. Jehu,

    There are no signs because Obama has Oregon in the bag. I see no Romney signs where I live for the same reason. Romney has it.

  4. Nate Silver won’t include TCJ polls. His cultists say it’s “partisan garbage.”

    But Nate loves the RAND study, which isn’t even a poll. He loves loves loves PPP, which does push-polling.

    Nate Silver, god of impartiality and numbers and science, lol.

    He’s a JEW who works with the 0bama campaign, how impartial can he be?

  5. Lew, tell that to Silver’s cultists. They all say 0bama campaign has given up on signs because they “don’t work.” ‘Course, they need to tell 0bama voters, who keep tearing them down all over the country. And they need to tell the Romney voters all over the country who keep putting them back up, lol.

  6. Lew,
    There were TONS of Obama signs back in 2008, where Obama had it much more in the bag in Oregon than today. Even Congressional reps have very little signage this election in Oregon.

  7. Lew,

    Obama had it even more in the bag in Oregon in 2008. There were Obama signs everywhere back then. This race will be much closer. So why the lack of Obama signs in Oregon?

  8. I’ve seen more bumper stickers than yard/highway signs for Obama. Romney signs outnumber Obumbles even around Eugene on the interstate. Going by signs you’d have no idea who the Dem candidate was. I’ve actually seen Romney yard signs here in the state capital, non Dem areas of town though.

    Only 36% of ballots have been turned in so far (mail in/drop off only in Oregon). So, I’ll believe it when I see it as Portland/Multnomah county likes to report last (and come up with missing ballots) but I think Romney has a good shot of winning Oregon.

    I won’t drop off my ballot till Tuesday myself (I stopped trusting the mail to get it in), and supposedly there will be UN observers in town to watch the process.

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