The Horserace – October 5, 2016

October 5, 2016 Hunter Wallace Politics 48

National Polls

LA Times – Trump +3.6
People’s Pundit Daily – Trump +1.4
UPI/Cvoter – Trump +1
Rasmussen – Trump +1
– Trump UP 4 Points
YouGov – Hillary +4
Reuters – Hillary +7 (2-way), Hillary +6 (4-way)

State Polls

New Mexico – Survey USA – Hillary +13 (4-way)

North Carolina – WRAL – Hillary +2 (4-way)

Ohio – Monmouth – Hillary +2 (3-way)

YouGov

Virginia – Hillary +8
Maine – Hillary +7
Minnesota – Hillary +6
Michigan – Hillary +5
Colorado – Hillary +5
New Hampshire – Hillary +4
Wisconsin – Hillary +3
North Carolina – Hillary +2
Florida – Hillary +2
Pennsylvania – Hillary +2
Nevada – Hillary +2
Iowa – Hillary +1
Ohio – Hillary +1
Georgia – Tie
Arizona – Trump +8

Reuters/Ipsos (2-way)

Maine – Hillary +11
New Mexico – Hillary +9
Minnesota – Hillary +8
Virginia – Hillary +8
New Hampshire – Hillary +6
Ohio – Hillary +1
Florida – Hillary +1
North Carolina – Hillary +4
Pennsylvania – Hillary +2
Arizona – Trump +2
Georgia – Trump +13
Iowa – Trump +7
Nevada – Trump +2
Colorado – Trump +2
Michigan – Tie
Wisconsin – Tie

Commentary

1.) We still haven’t seen the big drop in the LA Times poll that I anticipated. I’m happy to be proven wrong, but we should know for sure within the next two days.

2.) The Rasmussen tracking poll is now showing the same trend we saw after the debate in the PPD and UPI tracking polls. The Horserace had Trump +5 in the Rasmussen poll on September 22. Since the debate, it shot up to Hillary +1, then Hillary +3, and since then it has retreated to Hillary +1 and now it is Trump +1.

3.) The next debate will be upon us before we can get a clear picture of the race, but the daily tracking polls are consistent with Hillary getting a bounce and the bounce naturally fading. This is consistent with the consensus in political science that presidential debates don’t matter much in the end.

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48 Comments

  1. What I’m beginning to notice is that Trump is a creature of his class. A billionaire class.

    The Clinton’s are millionaire class attempting to enter the ranks of the Billionaires club off the back of the basic ignorance of their voting base.

    Who do Democrats, resentful about Trump’s tax history, think wrote these tax laws? Who do they think these tax laws protect? What are these tax laws designed to do?

    Enrich Jews.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reich_Flight_Tax

    It’s so fucking obvious what these laws are about.

    • Jews comprise something like 2% of the US population but probably own around 40% of the wealth.

  2. Is it the more that Hillary is seen the less support she garners? Think how much party discipline it will take to roll out the new improved demographics to vote for Kaine-Clinton which with her health has to be taken in to account.

    • People resent paying taxes. They can make the imaginative leap that a billionaire can be wiped out to the tune of a billion here or there. People on 60k can go tits up bankrupt and many have done so. Clinton should bear that in mind.

      • Rumors abound today of Trump releasing his 2015 tax return, don’t know what that will do except maybe a two play move that gets the heat on money bags Clinton to release her scam taxes.

  3. These gigantic Mexican colonies that have sprouted up over the last generation have destabilized the electoral map that gave us Reagan Landslides and Dukakis/Mondale wipeouts. Too many states with Major Cities that went Republican in 84 are now hopelessly democratic with these Mexican Colonies now representing a quarter of the population, and the courts winking and nodding at letting them all vote regardless of status.

    • Demography is destiny it drive politics far more than culture does because demography also determines culture.

    • Wetbacks provide a cheap source of votes for the demon-rats and cheap labor for “conservative” GOP business owners. The Cat-lick church wants them to fill up empty pews and the big labor unions want them to replenish their dwindling ranks. And then there are the low-end retailers like WAL*MART, which rely heavily on beaner customers. Messicans are an easily exploitable resource for many different groups with different agendas.

    • The Mexicans are not actually a great pool of voters except in California and a couple other states. Traditionally Mexicans eschew political involvement. HOWEVER the Nigs are the main Democratic Base and the main reason we are so screwed.

      Of the THIRTEEN CONFEDERATE STATES, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Texas have taken the most damage. Florida is about 18% Negro, North Carolina about 28% Virginia near 30% and Texas about 15%. If you factor in all the migration from the North and the Immigrants you see why VA, NC and FL can trend Democratic now because all you have to do is pad the Negro numbers with the leftist whites and nonwhite immigrants.

      If for instance none of the states had a Negro population about 8% of the total, no Democrat no matter how many Yankee expats and Immigrants there are living there presently would be enough to shift it. ITS THE NEGROES ITS THE NEGROES ITS THE NEGROES. This was why the Jews had to register them to vote in the 1960s. If we still had Jim Crow voting in the USA, the elections of Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton Barack Obama and this present one COULD NOT HAPPEN. PERIOD FIN

      • But the coloreds are not exactly all charged up to vote for a rich old White lady like Hillary. In fact I think a lot of them actually like Trump and his flamboyant “gangsta” lifestyle.

      • The Negroes are not the problem. The problem is with White people. According to the 2010 Census. “Non-Hispanic” Whites total to approximately 197 million people. And that figure is exactly that. An approximation, because most people bend over backwards to avoid reporting to the Census Bureau.

        But less than fifty percent able to vote even bother to register and then less than fifty percent who register bother to vote! The highest turnout was in 1964 at 49 percent. It’s plunged since then.

        So less than 25 percent of White people actually vote at all. And that vote is split between left-leaning Whites and “conservative” Whites. By my guesstimates 11 percent are “progressives” and 11 percent are “true conservatives” and about 3 percent are “independents,” which is why all these debates focus on wooing the “independents” to break the tie. That leaves approximately 13 percent of the “conservative” White vote against approximately 15 percent of a Black population that makes sure that all eligible (and many ineligible) Black voters cast their votes and they do so for only one party.

        Trump is the wild card that is making the establishment soil its own panties. He is not garnering any more of the “true conservative” votes. Indeed, if reports are to be believed, many of them are voting for Hillary or the libertarian. However, they are probably being canceled out by disaffected Bernie supporters who will either vote for him or Jill Stein.

        But what is truly making them nervous is the number of NEW PEOPLE registering to vote this election. Yes, the MSM (Mendacious Snake Media) is saying that all these Hispanics are registering to stop Trump, but why are they so upset?

        Even if what they claim is true, Hillary will not win the popular vote. The best they can hope for is that Hillary squeaks into victory through the electoral college. Even that looks difficult for her, because it looks like Trump may already have the electoral vote as well.

        Why would that be the case if Trump is doing as poorly in opinion polls as the MSM claims?

        Because they aren’t polling ALL the new people registering to vote this election cycle! The establishment wanted these people to stay dormant, so they have ignored them all these years as a matter of policy.

        Thanks to their own practice of shutting down any and all dissent from the traditional voter base, they have no idea how many of the likely voters they have been able to reach in their polls are LYING to them when they say they WON’T vote for Trump.

        Last but not least, the establishment has a horrible candidate in Hillary Clinton. I imagine that they thought they could slip her in with the implicit promise that she’d be nothing more than a figurehead president and her husband would actually be governing the country again.

        Bill Clinton did leave office with a lot of good will thanks to the MSM giving the American people the perception that the economy was in great shape and that there was then a budget surplus projected.

        Trump can easily hang NAFTA which Clinton signed into law around his neck, not to mention forcing Serbia to cede its Kosovo territory to Muslims to distract the country from his sexual peccadilloes (even though the average American couldn’t care less). Trump can emphasize how Hillary supported TPP. He can nail her to the wall on the economy alone.

        But Hillary also represents the worst aspects of the neo-cons. She destabilized Libya by taking out Khaddafi which opened the floodgates to Europe. She is rattling the sabers against a Christian European democracy like Russia. Then there is Ben Ghazi.

        Clinton’s State Department knew for several weeks that there was a problem. The American ambassador was begging for help. That whole crisis could have been averted if that embassy had been fortified or if security or evacuation measures had been put into place.

        When Clinton got “that call at 3:00 am,” she could not be bothered to send Ambassor Stevens and his people military support and even told them to stand down, leaving me to wonder if the good Ambassador was one of the many people who ended up in the morgue because he had something on Clinton.

        Then there is the email situation. There is no mystery to why Clinton isn’t fifty points ahead. The bigger mystery is why Clinton isn’t fifty points behind!

        • The Negroes are the main problem in certain states where their population numbers are high. If it hadn’t been for the Negro Vote in the last 60 years, Illinois would still be Red, Michigan would be a tepid Pink, Ohio would be solid red as would Pennsylvania. Negroes are whats thrown Virginia, North Carolina and Florida into Chaos as well.

          Of course we must never forget this, the main reason for ending JIM CROW was to Enslave the Nigs to ZOG and ever since the Nig’s do ZOG’s bidding.

  4. Trump should use every opportunity to “go big” during the debate;

    meaning when they try to ensnare him on petty issues or details, not his forte’, he should disengage that and elevate to a discussion of the big picture, his view of the next 4 years under his Administration.

    I think Farage is telling him a similar thing.

    By the way, those bomb-throwers on the right who called disparaged Farage as “controlled opposition”, have they committed seppuku yet?

    Of course not. No shame.

    • That still demands a level of evidence from him. I thought the primary weakness he exhibited was a lack of evidence.

    • That and White Water Development Corporation. Hillary’s failed real estate development obtained through fraudulent loans which took down a Savings and Loan.

    • I just calculated a tie 269 to 269.

      Trump Iowa, Colorado, Maine single electoral vote, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida

      Clinton : Pennsylvania, Virginia

      5 weeks to go, Trump needs to have people working with the likely Electors to see if the can get a defector, or even a Dem to switch to Bernie or Michelle Obama.

    • Reuters has been the most confusing tracking poll. They have Hillary up 6 to 7 points nationwide, but tied in Wisconsin and Michigan, down in Colorado, and up 2 points in Pennsylvania.

      • I like your Horserace updates, but you should at least consider changing Hillary’s picture to a sick Hillary version.

  10. This could have been a re-aligning election like 1860 or 1932, but the white cuck bastards in the swing state suburbs who would have been happy to vote for Kasich or Bush are fucking us. They’re nullifying all of the gains Trump made in pulling over new white voters and former Obama/Democratic Party voters. Even though the underlying “composition” of the voting pool has been somewhat reshuffled because of Trump, the net effect in terms of numbers is still an electorate that is largely the same as 2012.

        • Well, after reading your comment I tried to get to his site but discovered it has been suspended.

          Hmmmm.

          He’s been very critical of the Hebes lately.

          Someone must have complained.

    • Trump is attracting millions of enthusiastic new voters into the GOP, people who never would have otherwise voted. And they will all support Trump, not Kasich or Rubio or anyone else.

  11. I’m hoping that Trump stays around, even if he loses. Maybe he can lead us out of the wilderness, seeing as how Rick Grimes isn’t here.

  12. Stick a fork in Trump, he’s done. The Jewsmedia sucks, but the jewsmedia is making him say and do stupid shit. I’m voting for Darrell Castle, by the way.

  13. Mike Cernovich @Cernovich
    Ricky Vaughn may be suspended from Twitter, but you will hear from him in Silenced!

    Jay CarusoVerified account
    ?@JayCaruso Jay Caruso Retweeted Mike Cernovich
    Screw him and the rest of his white nationalist twits.Jay Caruso added,

    Jay Caruso is the
    Associate Managing Editor of Redstate. AKA Cuckstate.

  14. When will they ever learn? Cuckism is fatal.

    Hugh Hewitt ?@hughhewitt 3h3 hours ago
    Haiti is smashed up. Contribute $10 to $10,000 at @FoodForThePoor –already on the ground and working:

    • How can anyone tell if Haiti was damaged in the storm? Wouldn’t it look almost exactly the same?

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