The Big Short is one of my favorite films. Not only does it speak to me as a manic, contrarian geek, but it also artfully captures that peculiar historical moment when those predicting a system’s failure achieve their comeuppance against the seemingly invincible mob of people who’ve grown dependent upon that system. Just like with the real estate crash, knowing it’s coming is less important than timing and properly preparing for it. Just like with the real estate crash, accurately calling it and even timing it doesn’t necessarily translate to coming out on top.
The bond market in the United States is the next big one to pop, and it’s going to pop more loudly and with more far-reaching consequences than the real estate bubble. Not only are all these local and state government bonds unsustainable on paper, the quants who wrote the papers are relying on neoliberal pollyanna assumptions about human capital and human migration patterns which are dead wrong. They’re assuming that the migrants and minorities will somehow steadily drift into the middle class as European migrants before have done, and they’re assuming that there are strong forces pulling White taxpayers toward the major population centers.
Popping the Bond Balloon
America’s heading for a four stage cascade failure, the first one being a crisis in the bond market which dramatically raises the cost of borrowing money. Seth Klarman, a Jewish Zionist multi-billionaire “value investor,” has a huge stake in Puerto Rico’s debt, and it makes sense why he does. At first glance, with the conventional analytical tools, Puerto Rico’s budget and debt situation is a third world clusterfuck a sensible investor would wish to avoid. But Klarman’s identified that Puerto Rico’s a third world country with a first world backstop, and will likely be the first beneficiary of a generous federal bond bailout to stave off a bond market cascade failure.
The federal government will attempt to emulate their successful intervention in the real estate market. The only difference is that underneath all of the layers of financial instruments and derivatives, there was usually an actual house that actual people were willing to actually pay money for (perhaps for dramatically less than modeled). With government bonds, there’s no real floor. Continued white flight, globalist outsourcing, and the demographic decline in the populations which end up paying property and income taxes are already applying pressure on the bond market.
Contrary to popular belief, those White SJW hipsters “gentrifying” the inner city are only there for one phase of their lives, and will leave the city if/when they mature and begin to form families. As rampant as homosexuality may be nowadays, there simply aren’t enough bourgeoisie hipster homosexual urbanites to prop up the system. Homesourcing will only grow more popular, relieving corporations of the infrastructure investments in their offices and relieving employees of the hassle of either extended commuting or paying for their children to attend private schools.
We’re currently entering the phase where Boomers are shifting from being the most reliable taxpayers to becoming social security and subsidized healthcare tax drains. The statistical models are predicting that those Hispanic families where eight people are living in a small bungalow will become landed professionals eager to throw down for five or six McMansions each one dutifully paying high property taxes and keeping up on their mortgage payments. The statistical models are predicting that Millennials and Zykloners are going to form families and establish careers, despite all the evidence on the ground suggesting that they’re disproportionately trapped in dead end service jobs and both emotionally and financially incapable of pair bonding and producing stable families.
One thing you can bank on is that Seth Klarman will end up getting even richer. Detroit, Camden, and other shitholes are on deck to shit the bed around the same time as Puerto Rico, and the first ones to drop will likely receive the most generous bailouts from the federal government. The most solvent cities are actually in the worst situations, as the bond market will freeze up across the board and there won’t be any bailout cheese left by the time they show up.
America’s infrastructure is already an embarrassment. While the rest of the world is investing billions and billions in magnetically levitated bullet trains and fancy new planned developments, America can’t even keep its twentieth century road and rail infrastructure from crumbling and crashing around us. Now imagine that’s how it is while the bond market is especially strong and you start to get a feel for how dire this predicament is.
We had a taste of how this looks in Greece, though our predicament would be much worse. Greece doesn’t really have our simmering racial problems, at least not at nearly the same scale. Greece also had a wealthy and stable German-led European Union that was turning the screws just enough to maximize payment without unleashing the fascist and anarchist forces that strong and stable Western governments hold at bay by bribing the citizens away.
At the risk of oversimplification, the rise of fascism (and anarchism) is in inverse correlation to the bond market. When governments aren’t capable of supporting and protecting people and resolving infrastructure issues, para-governmental forces like Golden Dawn and Hezbollah arise to fill that vacuum. I say fascism here instead of simply “white nationalism,” because it’s the national socialist model which answers the questions being asked in the Weimar context. Small government conservative ideologies don’t cut it when people are looking for coordinated and communal solutions to problems they’re not capable of solving individually.
The temporary stabilization of the bond market will require the state and local governments to agree to austerity measures to keep their investors from fleeing. The governments will agree to unsustainable terms in order to stop the bleeding. I can’t predict whether there will be a false bottom here or whether the market will instantly fall to the next step. It’s possible that the federal government will be able to ease the concerns of the bond investors enough to buy some time. But even if the city council agrees to invest far less in infrastructure while raising taxes, it’s doubtful that the taxpayers will lie down and take the punishment.
Whites, particularly the Whites most capable of paying taxes, will accelerate their abandonment of the cities and states attempting to lean on them to survive the austerity crunch. They’ll be expected to stick around in cities where there’s little if any infrastructure investment, where the lion’s share of their tax dollars go to paying interest on money that was already spent long ago. This, in conjunction with Amazon Prime shipping and rural broadband, guarantees that there will be a White Rapture from the urban areas that will be much more decisive than White Flight was.
As more Whites leave, the urban centers will lean that much harder on the Whites who haven’t left. Foreign enclaves will go mainstream, as Nicaragua and Kiribati compete to deliver attractive tropical tax shelters for the middle class instead of just wealthy globetrotters. As the Whites leave, so too will the sanity and solvency of the state and local governments they’re opting out of. Any voices of reason proposing that the remaining Whites receiving special treatment to keep them there will be up against the Black Lives Matter mobs out for “racial justice.”
And, yes. It will be primarily racial. It will be primarily racial because the government sinecures will be even more acutely anti-white than they are now. Whites who wish to live in the city and work for the jobs that remain in the city will be last in line for those jobs. There will remain a robust global economy with plenty of opportunities, but few of them will be inextricably tied to the urban centers. Whites will be able to compete for them just fine in their pajamas, as their children play in the forest outside their quaint rural ranch home.
In the final denouement, explicit racial nationalism will prevail against more libertarian and meritocratic perspectives because Whiteness itself is the last thing that the marginal and struggling White man has to turn to in a world where attempting to operate as an alienated individual works. In the early stages, a lot of the para-governmental work will be achieved by religious and civic organizations that are multicultural. As scarcity accelerates, the groups which only permit Whites will prove more powerful and successful than the groups which invite racial disunities and disparities into their collectives.
Save for the small cohort of radical ideologues like ourselves, White identity is always something which emerges under the pressure of scarcity and conflict. The early days of the American pioneers featured all sorts of interracial romance, shared feasts celebrating mutual love and respect, and even talk of the savages adopting Christianity and seamlessly assimilating into Western civilization. Then the competing and killing started, and there was no strong central government capable of paying both sides to stop fighting. Even the most dippy and naive White folks grasped that loyalty to their own kind was a survival imperative; and the White American (Amerikaner) identity was born.
Those who trust that this federal government can and will carry on in more or less its current form are essentially trusting in the limitless capacity for central bankers to keep borrowing and spending without end. Neo-keynesian economics are indeed more flexible than Rand Paul would have you believe. Debt doesn’t mean the exact thing to a sovereign state as it does to a family budget. But there is a ceiling, after which the Seth Klarmans of the world stop betting on the stability of the federal government…and that’s when the bottom falls out.
A forward-looking nationalist movement needs to be one which works to model itself on other movements abroad which have succeeded in the wake of government austerity and instability. All of these civic nationalist and conventional political entryist strategies are jockeying for the captain’s seat on a sinking ship. They may brag about their most recent promotion and chortle that our lifeboats are pathetic compared to their impressive cruise ship. They are, after all. Trump’s far more powerful than our little nationalist groups. But the future belongs to those who are best prepared for it.
Infrared sauna is The Solution.
I’m only half kidding.
But definitely conflicted to report that the exodus from Jersey has officially begun its final phase. Everywhere there exists a majority of especially northwestern europeans (or thereabouts/assimilated euro types), there is talk, fevered talk, of relocating —————> SOUTH. Some are simply going to Pennsylvania, thinking they can stave off (new governor) Murphy’s total communism and Trump’s failure there, or feeling tied to family or jobs in NJ.
Be prepared, Southrons. Atlanta’s northern counties are considered a top destination due to the ‘good schools’ and Georgia’s policy of funding state college education for certain GPA’s. North Carolina has been a hot spot for refugees and will continue to be flooded.
Georgia has extended reciprocity to NJ attorneys, so relocating ones don’t have to pass the Ga bar exam. Take a good guess as to who’s behind that policy. The jews want to make sure we apostate whites can’t escape their endless attempts to rig the system that governs us. There are, besides too many lawyers in NJ, way too many jewish ones. They will follow us to ensure that we can’t reach a non-jew threshold amidst the once and future rebel gentiles.
“Boy, this new all-white place is wonderful. But the landscapers and housekeepers here are simply too expensive. Imma call up Carlos and see if he’s got any cousins in the area.”
Does the TWP have any plans to develop a Freikorps / Schutzstaffel / Sturmabteilung in the near future?
There would be too much legal exposure in that.
I’m already being sued for masterminding a militia terror campaign complete with motorized cavalry and anti-aircraft technology. Making it easier for them to frame us as death squads and then pursue us under legislation designed for death squads would be a bad call.
I’m just a chubby, friendly, pro-white guy trying to attend peaceful, law-abiding, permitted events.
I got a C+ in Econ. I could never figure out why. I never suspected it was a fabricated (((science))) until about 10 years ago.
All of this really really complicated stuff with the economy usually boils down to one thing as far as I’m concerned, really rich people playing games with money, and wanting the federal government to bail them out whatever they do. They put out the illusion that they are businessmen or industrialists, the way the country had a hundred years ago, but for the most part they are speculators, land speculators, stock speculators, they make money off of debt and they take advantage of the tax code. They aren’t really productive at all, they want to make a lot of money without working, or doing anything constructive with their time. Comparing them with the industrialists of the past is like comparing Bernie Madoff with John D Rockefeller.
I think PA is a good option simply because the rat-race folks aren’t going there, by and large. PA has favourable demographics excluding Phil/Pitt and a few small cities in Delaware and Lehigh valleys. There’s no massive former slave population, unlike VA/Nc/Ga, either. I’m a lifelong Virginian that has had enough of the “New South” and is relocating to rural PA.
Rural PA is where the trade school I’m attending is located. If me and my family like it there, well stay, if not it’s looking like White Afghanistan (WV)
I got stalked by two spics the other night in downtown Easton, right at dusk. They were teens maybe very early 20’s, a male and female. At first I just thought they were opportunists harassing me on their way somewhere, but I got sick of the guy trying to spook me with his sudden loud noises right behind me and stopped at a light in the center circle, whirled sideways waiting for them to stand next to me and stared.
They both turned around in the exact opposite direction immediately and walked away quickly; there were no side streets, alleys or lateral exits.
So they’d been actually following me for at least a half block or more (I took note of them a block and a half before).
I’ve heard stories from other very anglo-looking women about Easton; it’s infested with these hispanic vermin, gangs and such on certain edges of the small city. One who really held a grudge who’d lived there had red hair as well.
I took their total backing down as evidence that there’s still a fight to be fought there, for whiteys, who during busier hours and days make up probably 50% or more of the patrons of the businesses there.
For how much longer, though, is the question.
Sudden crashes and apocalyptic catastrophes are rare. I therefore believe America’s social and economic decline will continue to be gradual and almost imperceptible to most observers.
“You go bankrupt slowly at first, then all at once.” – Mark Twain
I think there will be a few plateaus and false bottoms on our way down, along with some sudden jerks here and there. But I fundamentally agree with you. There’s not going to be some singular defining moment where it all blows up into anarchy and all our politics are immediately brought to the fore.
This economy is running on vapors, artificially low interest rates.
If rates rise to realistic levels the wheels come off, in rapid succession.
I think this economy is way overleveraged. When the leverage unwinds the devil will get his due.
However, the power of government is great, they still have duct tape on the roll.
This dystopia floats on a 20 trillion bubble, when does a bubble burst?
I believe a lot of that bubble is comprised of derivative shenanigans, and that we’re closer to bare metal than we seem. I have no actual idea, though. Of course.
“Save for the small cohort of radical ideologues like ourselves, White identity is always something which emerges under the pressure of scarcity and conflict.”
Right, but it is important that when the crisis comes there will an “elite” ready to offer the sheeps/normies a path out, a new vision (discourse, ideology), and leadership.
Matt, Hatreon is still down. You need a Patreon account .
At what point does debt growth go exponential where the gov can’t control it ?
It’s not really a math question. It is, but I’m not smart enough and none of us have access to the real numbers at work, anyway. What we can do is watch the bond market closely, which is a sort of proxy for how much the oligarchs and insiders trust the government(s).
At what point do Seth Klarman and the ChiComs stop betting that the United States can/will pay the interest on its debt without resorting to (hyper)inflation?
All 3rd world countries are poor and stagnant. The more 3rd world US becomes the poorer and more stagnant it becomes.
Yep, Brown ppl give us a Brown economy.
The darker the ppl, the darker the economy.
Matt, you’re a really good writer. I really enjoyed that and I hope you’ll writer more often.
Very good article.