Editor’s Note: If you haven’t already done so, read my review of Kai-Fu Lee’s book AI Superpowers to grasp the background of this.
“Automation will have the biggest impact on entry-level and older workers, because more of their jobs tend to be routine or physical in nature and are most likely to be taken over by machines and algorithms, according to a forthcoming McKinsey Global Institute report.
Why it matters: Almost 40% of U.S. jobs are in categories expected to shrink between now and 2030.
Automation will affect some of the country’s largest occupational categories: office support, food service, production work, customer service and retail sales.
The hollowing out of middle-wage work will likely continue, per the report, without deliberate intervention to provide workers with skills they need to get higher-paying jobs. …”
Oh … just 40% of American jobs? Isn’t the latest estimate up from 31% in the last McKinsey report? What will all those people do?
I’m sure our already discredited political class will be able to handle that on top of the millions of legal immigrants and illegal aliens which are imported every year. Everyone will just become a home health aide and make around $20,000 a year and surely the average take home income of that profession won’t shrink under the weight of such a huge glut in the labor market?
“Why it matters: McKinsey’s analysis of 315 cities and more than 3,000 counties shows only the healthiest local economies will be able to successfully adapt to disruptions caused by the next wave of automation. Wide swaths of the country, especially already-distressed rural regions, are in danger of shedding more jobs.
On one end of the spectrum: a couple dozen successful cities with diversified economies and a lot of young, highly educated workers who are likely to be more resilient to workforce transitions.
On the other end: “trailing” cities and rural regions with aging workforces, lower education levels and jobs that are highly susceptible to automation-related displacement. As a result, these places may see a decade of flat or even negative net job growth.
Yeah, this is how the growing populism problem in Middle America will be solved. They’re already angry about the censorship. I can’t wait to see all the rubes swallow that from their Silicon Valley overlords. Here’s a toast to the eternal free-market principles of True Conservatism which is classical liberalism!
Jobs likes on site plumbing, electricians, elevator repair can not be lost to automation or outsourced to foreign countries.
In cities like my Chicago – there are lots and lots and lots of rich people that need (White) workers to maintain their fancy homes, guard their homes, process their trash etc.
The Elevator Operators Union guys have it made 6 figure salaries then they can go work in Dubai for a work/holiday and really rake in the $s.
Anytime there are cities – there are high rise buildings that need elevators, plumbing. Arabs can’t do any of this stuff in their expensive Arab cities or in flats in London, Chicago, LA etc.
If you have a 17 year old start steering him in to a high paid, high skilled union trade. F$*&@ Libertarian Free market loons/traitors – you want a union only work place.
There are still jobs available as elevator operators? What about streetcar conductors and wireless operators aboard transatlantic zeppelins?
Street cars accept in a few isolated places like Swiss towns, Salt Lake City have become obsolete.
Elevators in higher rise buildings have not become technically obsolete. Anytime there are cities, there are high rise buildings. And…
Elevators.
Get in the Elevator maintenance and repair unions anywhere in the world where there is urban civilization.
If your job is repetitve and there are a lot of people doing it, it will be an easy and profitable target for the automation companies. Specialist jobs will be targeted first. Generalists will be more difficult to automate.
And if strong AI ever appears, then report to your local soylent green facility. There will be a lot of positions there.
Did you hear about this book of Aaron Bastani with the intriguing title ‘Fully automated luxury communism’?
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/give-us-fully-automated-luxury-communism/592099/ (Sorry for linking to that obnoxious site, whose quality has really declined the last years).
This will certainly we one of the major issues of this century. Whatever social unrest it will cause is only exacerbated by mass immigration, of course. A perfect storm for civil strife.
No, I must have missed that.
Thanks, I will take a look.
It’s funny you show a pic of Q from star trek. Can you imagine Q observing our elite? He would have an absolute blast watching them bungle everything to shit over the next few decades. This is going to be a disaster because they literally cannot do anything that would actually help the problem – everything they do will make it worse.
LOL … I know.
That’s why I included it.
The elites are in it to enrich themselves and succeed magnificently. They are not bungling.
Q would be laughing at the simpletons who still believe each cycle’s campaign rhetoric and who still bother to vote.
Blompf is closely monitoring the monitoring the pending automation employment crisis. He will have his ‘special adviser ‘ jared make sure automation doesn’t affect Israel’s ability to wage terrorism.
It may not come as fast as we think – or not, but it will come and there are only painful answers.
And speaking of Star Trek
http://hirocker.com/r-economy/replicator-economy.html
Interesting link.
I’ve repeatedly said that AI will bring about a restoration of Slave Society. I was watching a documentary of Thomas Jefferson recently around the time of the 4th of July. It was slavery that made it possible for Jefferson to become so bright and well-read. This is one of the most striking things you notice about the early 19th century South. It produced men like John C. Calhoun. Seriously, we have gone from John C. Calhoun to Tim Scott in South Carolina and have called that progress!
While I am all for having slaves serve ME, I am not happy that my children might only find work as ‘elevator repairpersons’- in short, a menial task for rich schmucks; who should walk the stairs for their own good, anyway. Serving others (teachers, nurses, etc.) is one thing…..but that’s entirely different. The reason no one wants to be a plumber is because it literally is a ‘sh*tty’ job…..
But, after seeing that video of an automated kitchen with robotic arms doing the cooking, and following recipes, minus the humanity of Rosie the Robot from ‘the Jetsons,’ I began to see why there were those who feared and loathed robots dehumanizing humanity, in the early Sci-Fi stories.
I LIKE to cook, and enjoy the satisfaction of finding the right balance of flavors, spices, and sauces. Somehow, having AI make my Marinara doesn’t have the same personal touch….
It will solve a lot of problems while creating a host of new problems