Here in the United States, we are currently in the grip of this idea that somehow we are almost at the end of this after a month long lockdown that has mitigated the virus and that life is about to return to normal after “Reopening America” in May, but all the evidence suggests not really.
CNN:
“(CNN) The new coronavirus is likely to keep spreading for at least another 18 months to two years—until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected, a team of longstanding pandemic experts predicted in a report released Thursday.
They recommended that the US prepare for a worst-case scenario that includes a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. Even in a best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted.
“This thing’s not going to stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of people,” Mike Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, told CNN.
“The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology.
“Osterholm has been writing about the risk of pandemics for 20 years and has advised several presidents. He wrote the report along with Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who is also a top expert on pandemics; Dr. Kristine Moore, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist who is now medical director for CIDRAP; and historian John Barry, who wrote the 2004 book “The Great Influenza” about the 1918 flu pandemic. …”
In February, Donald Trump and the GOP decided to “ride it out” and treat it as “just the flu” and go for herd immunity. Unlike New Zealand or Australia, it is probably too late now to put the genie back in the bottle in the United States. China was right to crush the curve to avoid this ordeal.
Where do we go from here?
UMN:
Door #1:
“Scenario 1: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1- to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021. The occurrence of these waves may vary geographically and may depend on what mitigation measures are in place and how they are eased. Depending on the height of the wave peaks, this scenario could require periodic reinstitution and subsequent relaxation of mitigation measures over the next 1 to 2 years.”
Door #2:
“Scenario 2: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021. This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic (CDC 2018). During that pandemic, a small wave began in March 1918 and subsided during the summer months. A much larger peak then occurred in the fall of 1918. A third peak occurred during the winter and spring of 1919; that wave subsided in the summer of 1919, signaling the end of the pandemic. The 1957-58 pandemic followed a similar pattern, with a smaller spring wave followed by a much larger fall wave (Saunders-Hastings 2016). Successive smaller waves continued to occur for several years (Miller 2009). The 2009-10 pandemic also followed a pattern of a spring wave followed by a larger fall wave (Saunders-Hastings 2016).”
Door 3:
“Scenario 3: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern. Again, this pattern may vary somewhat geographically and may be influenced by the degree of mitigation measures in place in various areas. While this third pattern was not seen with past influenza pandemics, it remains a possibility for COVID-19. This third scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur.”
Damn.
Well, that sucks.
Note: Read the full report, “The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza.”
Herd immunity is all good. 40% of deaths are in New York due to the subway system & compromised lungs from breathing in dust after 9/11. Everywhere else this has just been a bad flu is all
P.S.I would like to see Oriental Dissent write about the General Strike (against Amazon & Walmart) & Re-Opening protests tomorrow.
Nothing has fundamentally changed between March and now. Not really sure why people assume it will magically just disappear absent any interventions.
The comforts of modern western society have made us soft and weak. In fact, the best chance the white man has of survival in north america is for this thing to collapse living standards. Doing so would have the two-prong effect of requiring us to become tough once more and also send much of the wretched refuse of the world packing for home.
Modern western living standards are probably a one-off thing. They cannot be sustained and ultimately they seem to be very bad for us.
The really creepy virus deniers claim they have gotten their information from “Q”. How crazy is that?
Have you noticed how low the COVID-19 “recovered” numbers are by all sources? What do you attribute this to?
If the R is driven to 0.5 then it’s gone in summer.
Quoting CNN? Wow, this place is rapidly going downhill.
You can read the report here.
Why bother though? It is the flu so now it is over in May.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1.pdf
Nursing homes and long term care facilities are half of the deaths in most effective states, they get herd immunity living close in proximity, C Dif and Shingles run rampant. If the children are not in the high mortality rate HW then this Pandemic is a little worse than the flu for the elderly compromised immune, Hasidic Jews, and Obese old blacks.
Why the low death rates of Covid, in India and Indonesia with most of the world’s highest density population?
It’s it’s not hygiene!
Indonesia has a huge number of underreported excess deaths. India has been a lockdown.
“Why the low death rates of Covid, in India and Indonesia with most of the world’s highest density population?”
Give it time. There is propogation delay.
What is it with this generation? They think everything is microwaveable, ready in 3 minutes.
WOO HOO!!!! FREEDOM!!! The business owners of Maine are saying FUCK YOU ZOG! WOO HOO!
FYI – 90% of White People have recovered. Be healthy ,be free, and be WHITE!
“Maine are saying FUCK YOU ZOG! WOO HOO!”
Time will tell.
Wear a mask in interior spaces, wash hands, don’t show up to work if symptomatic. Don’t cough and sneeze on people. Practice racial distancing. Use the down time to do original research. Be like a Isaac Newton and move our folk forward by being inventive and responsible for your actions.
“China was right to crush the curve to avoid this ordeal.”
Yeah, they can perform miracles, when they control the press.
/s
Let’s see how China preforms miracles, when they have 500 million unemployed .
Speaking of performing miracles … So, in the upcoming global fight for dwindling resources (food, water, land) using excess respources (the newly unemployed), it going to be 500 million new conscripts in the People’s Liberation Army up against 30 million new conscripts in Uncle Shlomo’s transgender supersoldiers of color grrl power Army … yep, it is sure going to be fun to watch, right?
Too late for much of anything now. Nothing to do but ride it out and hope for some decent meds to treat it. And by all means don’t close our borders or stop immigration. I mean holy fuck who wants to be called a racist.
The only misery for me is not being able to go to restaurants and bars–and that’s due to lockdown, not the virus. In other news, Trump is now saying that he has high confidence the virus originated in the Wuhan lab—but he can’t tell us any specifics because it’s “classified”. Another Colin Powell moment as the Neocons are calling for Chinese blood.
Jesus Christ he’s such a cock. I think it’s synthetic but that’s too direct an accusation. The chinks could easily suggest the CIA poisoned Wuhan with it. Some of the deadlier strains like Iran or New York might also have been synthetic mutations. The Chinese would have to be very suspicious that they were crop dusted like this in Winter right at the same time the CIA was sponsoring revolt in Hong Kong.
The virus is here to stay. It’ll be waiting for us whenever we come out of lockdown. You can’t stay in the cave forever because you are afraid of the sabertooth tiger, you have to go out and hunt or starve.
Or you can do what many real countries that aren’t incompetent have already done and eradicate the virus.
Yeah, we should have crushed this thing early and severely. Oh well. I don’t know what the best strategy is now. On the one hand, we’re slowing the spread (sort of) and easing the burden on the healthcare system. On the other hand, we’re killing small businesses, and I’m afraid big corporations and billionaires are taking advantage of the situation to consolidate assets. Then there’s the food supply issue. Also, It’s amazing to me that we could barely shut down for a month without people going stir crazy. Half the population must have ADHD or something.
“Yeah, we should have crushed this thing early and severely.”
Nah, we’ll just ride it out , as pres Kushner and the jew crew told us to. They know it all, just ask them.
There will be no herd immunity and no vaccine for H! viruses because this type of virus mutating so rapidly that whatever antibodies you have, they will not recognize the new mutated version.
We must learn to live with this thing.
There are exactly 3 methods to protect yourself.
1. Ultraviolet light kills viruses and other pathogens. Wind blows them away so they can not form critical mass to infect people. One single pathogen or bacteria can`t infect human. Immune system can deal with small amount of pathogens. For infections, critical mass is needed. Viruses and bacteria are basically like Jews or immigrants like immigrants. One is not enough, many are needed to ruin your neighborhood or country.
So, live in the windy area with lot of sunlight. Avoid dark dirty places like big cities
2. Personal hygiene. At least 70% of alcohol disinfectant kills most of pathogens . Small disinfectant spray will be like gun. When you go in the virus or immigrant infected area, you must carry both of them all the time and get used to it.
3. Quit panicking, forget the current hysteria and return to Nazism fascism and far right extremism. Until we have open borders, we have mass infections and next one may not be little more dangerous flu but something more serious. Super bacteria is a thing, that is resistant to all known antibiotics and medical folk is scared like hell. When this guy gets out from Wuhan laboratory, then things go really ugly. .
This is probably in the range of the Hong Kong flu of 1967. As for herd immunity, it may happen faster than expected because it is so drastically contagious. Although, once 30% of the population has it, the spread can actually slow down so it will take longer to reach a higher percent of infected than in the earlier weeks and months and achieve true herd immunity. The most interesting thing of all of this pandemic is that it exposes just how unhealthy and overweight Weimerica’s population is. Truly a sick, dying nation. I’m not sure how useful it is to compare various countries’ IFRs because they differ on how healthy they are going into this with different diets and levels of physical activity. This country is uniquely positioned to have a higher death rate than healthier nations.
Also, if the government isn’t going to step up and provide for average people instead of the most connected, I expect the population to get desperate to open things up. At this stage there is probably a lot of astroturf and the protests have attracted the most loathsome boomers but that doesn’t change the fact that people are going to get desperate and they’ll likely accept the concept of herd immunity as an acceptable risk.
@Juri…
‘There will be no herd immunity and no vaccine for H! viruses because this type of virus mutating so rapidly that whatever antibodies you have, they will not recognize the new mutated version.’
That is your assertion, Juri, though, you assert it without any body of evidence, which means that you are speaking your state of mind.
But, yes, there will be something more serious in the future – even if that is not until the next century.
We know it is coming, because we know history.
Be well!
“””…… you are speaking your state of mind…..”””
Not only my mind., other people mind also, like this folk.
“”….Scientists in Iceland detect 40 mutations of the Novel Coronavirus…”
https://www.ibtimes.sg/scientists-iceland-detect-40-mutations-novel-coronavirus-41708
For such a short period, this is very bad number. Most of the mutations even die out or mutate to safe direction and become harmless. But with violent mutation, there is increasing risk that one of the many mutation become real badass.
What you think, how immune system will recognize virus which passed 5 or more mutations ?
The Coronavirus isn’t the Flu. However I believe it will stick around forever unless everybody is vaccinated. All countries are working on it. However the Medical Industrial Complex has no care about actual cures and when a vaccine is found 1 company will control it and make all the money and the FDA will go along with it. Same goes for medicine. It’s all about the money. The medical system is corrupt up and down. We should have numerous pills and vaccines that work legalized and end Covid-19 forever. However the Medical Industrial Complex will hate especially vaccines because that will stop it. The medical system wants this thing around forever because it means more sick people and more money for the Medical Industrial Complex. I say replace it all with a Christian national medical system based on cures and the hell with the Capitalist Pigs who look at Covid-19, the Flu, Cancer, and other illnesses as a tool at stealing trillions from sick People in the World. Deo Vindice !