Bergamo May Be Close To Herd Immunity

Fascinating result.

In two towns around Bergamo in Italy that were the hardest hit place in all of Europe by COVID-19, a new study has found a seroprevalence rate of 61% which is the highest I have seen from any of the antibodies studies. It was only 2.49% to 4.16% in the John Ioannidis study in Santa Clara, CA and 21% in the New York City study. New York City’s medical system came close to being overwhelmed in the first week of April, but it never reached the Bergamo level of collapse that was feared.


“We estimate that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy is 52,000 ± 2000 as of April 18 2020, more than a factor of 2 higher than the official number. The Population Fatality Rate (PFR) has reached 0.22% in the most affected region of Lombardia and 0.57% in the most affected province of Bergamo,which constitutes a lower bound to the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). …

Combining PFR with the Princess Diamond cruise ship IFR for ages above 70 we estimate the infection rates(IR) of regions in Italy, which peak in Lombardia at 23% (12%-41%, 95% c.l.), and for provinces in Bergamo at 67% (33%-100%, 95% c.l.). This suggests that Bergamo may have reached herd immunity, and that the number of infected people greatly exceeds the number of positive tests, by a factor of 35 in Lombardia.”

70% is the level of infection needed for herd immunity. It’s just the flu, bro … albeit with an unbelievably higher attack rate and mortality rate. The IFR of the flu is 0.04% vs 1% for COVID-19.

If the population of the United States is 382.2 million and 70% of the population needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity and the IFR of COVID-19 based on the best antibodies studies in New York City and Bergamo is 1%, then the epidemic would halt and herd immunity would be achieved when around 2,297,400 Americans have died of COVID-19.

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  1. That’s the Imperial College estimate more or less.

    Btw Niall Ferguson, not Neil Ferguson, did a very good interview with an Aussie talking about Taiwan as best China. Sounds like Harvard and Oxford are going recognize Taiwan as a real country soon. Should provoke China into a stupid retaliation.

    • 19 dead in New Zealand is looking like a smart move. If New Zealand had chosen to “ride it out” and go for herd immunity, 34,202 would be the death toll.

      • Why you talking about NZ? It’s an Island, it can close down immigration while keeping open like a research monkey. The reason for spread is allowance of Chinamen, not the lockdown.

        • I understand Boris had the best Chinese specialists helping him recover. He was not intubated and put on a ventilator, which is generally fatal when it creates too much pressure in the inflamed, weakened alveoli.

          • The doctors in the UK abandoned intubation. I don’t know how severe Bojo really had it though.
            He looks rough but hardly beat up.

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