Coronavirus: 5/3

33 Comments

1. It seems virus control measures in the coastal States are bringing the death toll down recently, at least in official numbers, but expect that number to jump back up as the virus spreads like wildfire in the reopening interior States. And that’s not even factoring in successive waves.

2. I stand with CoronoaChan!

   • I look forward to seeing you lick the bedpans of infected Corona Chan patients.

3. CV-19 related deaths in NY City are rapidly approaching zero. The rate has been dropping by about 20 deaths per day. From a high of 571 on 4/7, to 29 yesterday.

   That’s from the NY City official CV-19 page.
   https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

   My home county, with 225,000 people, has experienced only one CV-19 related death. Total. Our last confirmed case was sometime last week.

   This whole thing is a farce.

   • New York City went into lockdown on March 22.

     Deaths peaked 15 days later on April 7th.

     By May 1, deaths in New York City had fallen to only 29 deaths.

     Conclusion: lockdowns don’t work and the whole thing was a hoax!

     • It’s downright Jewish (like jelly slime) the way these people debate. Not surprising, seeing as Kushner’s kikes are the ones feeding them the talking points.

     • OR – the people that were susceptible to dying via the Chinese virus have already died. And people who aren’t compromised haven’t and won’t.

       • Sorry, Denise.

         We’ve figured out this puzzle.

         1.) No one has immunity to the virus.

         2.) There isn’t a vaccine or treatment.

         3.) Most people who have the virus are asymptomatic.

         4.) The IFR of the virus is 0.8% to 1%.

         5.) The lockdowns have worked and suppressed the virus.

         6.) Herd immunity is reached when 70% of the population is infected.

         7.) The vast majority of the people who die will be over 60 years old.

         Let’s assume these facts and do the math for Montgomery County, PA:

         830,915 (population) x 70% (herd immunity threshold) x 1% (IFR) = 5,816 deaths to reach herd immunity

         Montgomery County, PA is reporting 369 deaths. It is currently about 6% of the way there.

         • Yet we do not know where the numbers come from and what is being counted as a Corona death. I would need to see a total break down of the numbers and then, MAYBE, I’d trust the lying government-media.

         • LOL! Sorry, Hunter. I agree with Pompey, and have from pretty much the beginning. ESPECIALLY adfter the Rappin ‘Rockin’ Dancin’ Twerking “Doctor” videos. Hey ZOG – that was stupid. I know you can’t help yourself, in your NEED to spit and shit all over American Goyim Too much data is emerging from all kinds of sources that your fear mongering is total BS.

           1) I’ll humour you for a second, on your “Montgomery County, PA” Boo Scare “data” I looked up the stats on Montgomery County, PA. Look up the demographics. GO, CORONA CHAN! Get ’em! CoronaChan, raging through (((Montgomery County, PA))) is a win!

         • The demographics don’t matter.

           The same formula applies to your county: population x 70% x 0.8% to 0.1% = predicted deaths

         • The demographics totally matter. Tsk tsk tsk. Listen to yourself.

           The GENETICS and the demos they create matter more than anything else in existence.

         • Hmm.

           Let us try running the formula on a different county. Feel to get a calculator and follow along. This is simple math.

           628,270 people live in Bucks County, PA.

           70% is the threshold of herd immunity. 439,789 people in Bucks County would need to be infected.

           The IFR of COVID-19 is 0.8% to 1%. Predicted deaths are 3,518 to 4,397. Currently, Bucks County, PA is reporting 237 deaths.

           Lets assume it is just the flu.

           628,270 (population) x 70% x 0.04% = 175 predicted deaths.

           More people have already died in Bucks County, PA than we would expect to have died of flu.

         • Oh brother! What are you going to do? Go through every county in the country? What do you know about Bucks, Co, PA? 237 deaths out of a population of approx. 628,00 is not a big deal.

           I lived in Philadelphia for years and years, and spent a lot of time in Bucks County. Again – DEMOGRAPHICS are EVERYTHING. And I don’t mean Race.

           1) Where did these “deaths” occur? Your calculations mean just about nothing. Bucks County is a very large county in terms of land mass. The upper portion is pretty rural. The lower section is mostly working and middle class. The managerial/professional/service/sector of demo of Philadelphia.

           And then there’s New Hope.

           That’s what people think of when they think of Bucks County. The central section abuts NJ, and is a home away from home for the arty, posh homosexual/Theater/Jew crowd from NYC and Philadelphia, and has been so for decades and decades. . I spent a lot of time in New Hope. It’s BEAUTUFUL. Tons of gorgeous homes all over the area. Lush scenery. I used to know a lot of The-at-tuh people, and of course, Homos. This was a million years ago, of course. But the demographics still hold true. By the time I stopped visiting, regularly – that was over a decades ago. I lot of Indians Dot not Feather were buying up the cool, quirky shops, and turning them into dreary, tacky Indian “markets” that reeked of that weird incense they use. I hope they went away; every one was seriously bummed out by their presence. There’s probably a lot Mestizos there now. But I digress….

           New Yorkers fled NYC, for all over the East Coast, including into PA, when the panic began. Central Bucks would be a natural location for the refugees.

           Who were the people who “died of Corona Chan”? Jew homos form NYC?

4. Very nice.
   What happens when these draconian measures are relaxed ?

5. At your entry headed “Coronavirus 5/2,” Mr. W., commenter Robert Sykes posted the following:

   “The numbers include influenza and pneumonia deaths as well as coronavirus deaths. Deaths attributable solely to coronavirus amount to about 37,000:

   https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm ”

   At that page, when I went to it, the Covid stats ran from the week ending February 1, i.e., the week before the first death, to the week ending April 25, i.e, not includng the most-recent tally-week, which ended this past Friday, May 1.

   Okay–since I haven’t been tracking this data the way you’ve been tracking it, I’m not sure I’m reading the chart right, but here’s what I think I see:

   Covid deaths (confirmed or presumed): 37,308
   Covid-and-pneumonia deaths: 16,564
   Covid-and-influenza deaths: No more than 807

   So:

   37,308 + 16,564 + 807 (max.) = 53,872 (min.) to 54,679 (max.)

   That jibes with your “Coronavirus 4/25” entry, in which you put the total Covid deaths to 4/25 as 54,256.

   Now–there is one comparatively minor thing that’s bothering me:

   I’ve been thinking you’ve been saying the numbers you’ve been posting are Covid “confirmed” deaths and don’t include pneumonia, by which I thought you meant deaths in which both Covid and pneumonia are implicated. It seems the numbers include “confirmed AND presumed,” plus “Covid-and-pneumonia.” Maybe I’ve been misunderstanding what you’ve been saying.

   I’m also bothered by one major thing:

   The chart that Robert Sykes linked also shows that “total deaths from all causes” are about as was expected for the period. In fact, they’re a little bit lower–97%–than was expected.

   I thought you presented data a week or two ago in which you said there’s been a spike in deaths. Not according to that chart–the CDC chart–if I’m reading it correctly. A footnote defines this “expectation” as follows:

   “Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.”

   So–what have I missed? Where’s the spike you were talking about? The chart does show two weeks in which total deaths were quite a bit above average–115% and 120%. Maybe those are what you were talking about, but they’re more than balanced by the several weeks in which total deaths are below average.

   (Also in the footnote of the chart–whose counts are labeled, in its heading, as “provisional”–is the following: “Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred.")

   • PS I just realized that the low percentage–49%–of expected deaths for the chart’s most-recent week presumably reflects the reporting lag that’s detailed in the footnote I quoted at the end of my previous post. That, in addition to lag that might still be reflected in the chart’s preceding weeks, might mean the total deaths for the period will eventually be above the expectation.

   • Hunter is no longer allowed to write correct data. He must do what he’s told.

     • I’m just in my house with a calculator.

       • I’ll presume to make two suggestions, Mr. W. …

         1 — The heading of your U.S. deaths is currently simply “U.S. deaths per day.” Lest there be any confusion as to what you’re reporting, you might want to change that to the following:

         “U.S. daily deaths (presumed or confirmed to have been caused by Covid-19, either alone or in combination with pneumonia or the flu).”

         2 — Avoid looking too closely at any other numbers except deaths above the expectation. When you start looking at other things, such as pneumonia, flu, strokes, heart attacks, or whatever, you can confuse things, in a blog setting, because these things can overlap with deaths above the expectation. That’s a point I’ve expressed to you in two or three different ways over the past week or two, so I’m just putting it forth again.

         Peace.

       • Uh huh.

   • So a version of what you are presenting is probably the most effective argument I have seen against strong responses to the virus.

     Essentially it boils downs to this:
     1) the virus is actually much more widespread than what testing currently indicates. ( a fair assessment given the limited testing capacity we have now)
     2) the number of deaths due to the virus is obscured and inflated by the way deaths are recorded as illustrated by the CDC website.
     3) therefore, the virus is actually much more widespread than we realize and because many more people have it than we know, the mortality rate is actually much lower than commonly thought.

     I think this is a fair position, as opposed to the all the ridiculous shit that some people have been putting forward.

     The problem is these people use this position to say, “LOOK! We overreacted and the quarantine measures have been much more damaging than the virus itself.”

     This is a loaded statement and implies that we should never have shut things down to begin with. What this obscures IS THAT WE DID KNOW THIS AT THE TIME, AND STILL DO NOT KNOW THIS IS THE CASE. We are dealing with something with a lot of unknowns and when you are dealing with something like this, the proper response is to be cautious. Not acting like a retard and assuming a possible pandemic is just a big hoax.

6. Bill D Wall (cute name! Hopeless IRL – but cute!) – i an many others have pointed this out. in many way, on many occasions since the Corona Dementia set in – because we are trying to help – but Hunter is ONLY interested in advancing the increasing absurd Gates/Fraudci/Globalist tyranny.

   So sad.

   • Hunter is no longer allowed to write correct data. He must do what he’s told.

     Denise,

     I think it is more prosaic than this. Hunter, as commenter J.P. pointed out yesterday, is simply an authoritarian, and authoritarians simple default belief is to believe whatever whoeveris in power says.

     • No, I can count.

       I think that is the difference. I don’t need to rely on conspiracy theories because the number of dead people in NYC is what we would expect given the IFR and prevalence.

       • There are two kinds of people. There are those who understand elementary school math, and there are flu truthers.

   • Question for Denise and Southron:

     Do you, or do you not, think that White people will be in a minority in the United States if immigration and invasion are not halted and/or reversed?

     • Ironsides – I cannot and would not speak marvelous, esteemed. and genuinely intelligent and better yet SANE,Southron – but considering everything I have ever written on this blog, or anywhere else – I will not condescend to reply to the most STUPID question I have ever encountered in my entire life.

     • Do you, or do you not, think that White people will be in a minority in the United States if immigration and invasion are not halted and/or reversed?

       Ironsides – of course this will happen if immigration and invasion are not halted and/or reversed, which I want mightily.

       I just don’t think that the CoronaChan is necessary going to accomplish this. As you probably heard, immigration is still going on in America – albeit in lesser numbers – but still happening nonetheless.

       Even the UK still apparently has open borders for foreigners coming in on international flights, whilst domestic flights are virtually halted:

       While Brits Are on Lockdown, 100,000 People From Abroad Arrive at Airports Every Week – Summit News
       https://summit.news/2020/05/03/while-brits-are-on-lockdown-100000-people-from-abroad-arrive-at-airports-every-week/

       *Thank you for the kind words, Denise!

   • Hey Denise you forgot Russia, Carnival Cruise Lines, Air France, Isreal, Iran, India, Pakistan, Tom Hanks, my niece, Japan, China, Spain, and Iceland.

     They are all in on it.

     The entire planet engaged in a conspiracy and it’s all about YOU.

     They want to take your rights away because that has always bothered Putin and Tom Hanks so they decided at the last illuminati meeting to do something about it.

     What you and your self-absorbed narcissist brethren cannot seem to grasp is that you have not been granted some special indulgence from reality. Events take place in life and you have to roll with them.

     Devolving into some fantasy version of reality doesn’t in fact banish reality…it just makes you look the fool.

     But at least your fantasy allows you to feel good about what amazing and perceptive insights you have into life denied to everyone else. So there’s that.

     • LOL! Your inane and frankly WEIRD comment says nothing about me, and EVERYTHING about you. You’ve obviously never read anything I’ve written. Wow. Tragic – but funny.

7. If the lockdown measures taken by most states are matched with the time the virus lasts, along with lag time for latent exposure, six weeks of social shutdown would’ve been about right. Most places are going beyond that point. Minnesota will have had its’ stay-at home order on for almost eight weeks by May 18th, if the governor doesn’t renege yet again on the date for lifting the order.

   I’ve noticed many people here are ignoring rules on social distancing, and more than half of the folks I’ve recently seen aren’t wearing PPE. The jackasses can’t handle being inconvenienced, and badly want back their chain restaurants and retail outlets, so this is how they’re rebelling: Exposing themselves and others to potential danger. Take THAT, powers that be!!

   It all goes to show, you can’t fix stupid.

   • My personal experience is that people took the lockdown seriously at the start.

     And now they don’t give a shit.

     So, for what it’s worth, the “just the flu, bro” narrative is working.

     I expect deaths to exceed 300,000 by the end of the year.

     Kiss your old folks goodbye.