JUST IN: Trump says he was “surprised” by Fauci’s warnings on reopening: “To me, it’s not an acceptable answer” https://t.co/FNLf8aZVrX pic.twitter.com/K0n9D8G00e
— The Hill (@thehill) May 13, 2020
Big news.
We’ve seen what has happened in Spain and France which have the fourth and fifth highest death tolls in the world. How widespread is COVID-19 in those countries?
Only 5% of the population of Spain and France has been infected.
Another IFR datapoint: with serology testing estimating that 5% of Spains population was exposed, 27,104 deaths, and a population of 46.9 million gives an infection fatality rate of ~1.2%. https://t.co/RxtTJjjxfe
— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) May 13, 2020
BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary results of Spain’s seroprevalence study #ENECOVID.
— Miguel Hernán (@_MiguelHernan) May 13, 2020
>60,000 participants
Antibodies for #SARSCoV2:
5% of Spanish population
11% in region with highest incidence (Madrid)
So far from herd immunity in country with 2nd largest number of cases after U.S. https://t.co/P8dpzaibuX
Quick and dirty calculation of mortality risk:
— Miguel Hernán (@_MiguelHernan) May 13, 2020
27,100 #COVID19 deaths
divided by
a preliminary estimate of 2.35M with IgG antibodies in early May (5% of a population of 47M)
= 1.2%
A ballpark estimate that may change after statistical adjustments and validation studies.
Today both France and Spain (two badly hit countries) have come out with seroprevalence numbers. (France is a model, paper linked below. Spain was representative sample/survey of 60K; I don’t have the paper yet). Both are ~5 percent. If that holds up, that is very very bad news. https://t.co/Tr7sCEXtrT
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 13, 2020
One hopeful scenario had been there is a lot of asymptomatic transmission we are not noticing. Maybe. But if some of the worst hit countries are still composed of almost completely immunologically naive populations, that’s a different challenge. Quite confusing, to be honest.
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 13, 2020
Clarification re: my Sweden seroprevalence question. Lancet article said 25 percent for Stockholm. The question re:Spain and France only at 5 percent remains, though. If that’s the real seroprevalence, big death toll despite (relatively) limited spread. https://t.co/lFUuNhQ5dh
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 13, 2020
Even the worst hit Spanish regions appear to be at ~10-14% seroprevalence. Hopefully we’ll have more distribution/network data—but one guess would be the spread in nursing homes/vulnerable populations couldn’t be checked even as everyone else locked down. https://t.co/WaWE3xa2lh
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 13, 2020
Here’s a super helpful expert thread on squaring Sweden’s claims with the seroprevalence numbers emerging elsewhere. https://t.co/lu0s425NFj
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 13, 2020
New Indiana data. Random sample. Prevalence: 2.8% These findings contradict the hope that many had mild/asymptomatic infections and are now immune. This suggests places that were spared (so far) did not have big outbreaks. https://t.co/O0R9mEc1Xl
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 13, 2020
Yes waiting for the paper and the details. This appears to be the first wave. https://t.co/RlBh648SxO
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 13, 2020
Only 2.8% of Indiana’s population has been infected.
Once in a while, I get to talk about my own back yard. Indiana just conducted the first statewide random sample study to determine the true prevalence of COVID-19. The results may surprise you.
— Aaron E. Carroll (@aaronecarroll) May 13, 2020
Too Many States Are Flying Blind Into Reopening. Not Indiana. https://t.co/6mHHmOKS5d
Now to results!
— Aaron E. Carroll (@aaronecarroll) May 13, 2020
How many are currently infected? 1.7%
How many more have antibodies? 1.1%
Total prevalence in Indiana? 2.8%
Anyone hoping that great numbers of Americans have been infected, but with no symptoms or very mild illness is going to be disappointed.
This means, however, that Indiana is currently missing 10 out of every 11 cases. We’re not testing enough.
— Aaron E. Carroll (@aaronecarroll) May 13, 2020
More calculations possible with a denominator. The infection fatality rate is 0.58%
This is worse than the flu.
What percent were totally asymptomatic? About 45%
How long does it take to get to herd immunity?
The virus would have to spread through 60% to 70% of the population. The only place in the world where antibodies studies have found it close to that level of seroprevalence is the hardest hit towns around Bergamo in Northern Italy. New York City is only at 21%.
Note: 71% of Republicans currently think the worst is behind us!
I don’t believe the 21% number from New York. They sampled people at grocery stores. It was not random.
The lockdowns are preventing herd immunity.
This is true.
The alternative is a twofer:
– somewhere around 2 million dead in the USA in less than a year
– consequent panic and disruption making the lockdown-depression look friendly and relaxed by comparison.
I still think that, a year from now, the flu truthers are going to look like the stupidest goddamned idiots on the face of the planet. And the anti-lockdown people will be lumped in with them, because most of the people opposing lockdowns are opposing the symptoms of the lockdowns, not making coherent alternative arguments about what to do, and therefore opting for the twofer by default.
If I’m wrong, that’ll be good news. But I don’t think I’ll be wrong.
PPE and distancing, and we won’t have to lockdown anymore. But manufacturing was sold to Mexico, then China, so f that, right? Bucks before bros! The pols incapable of foresight can only shutdown society while they play catch-up. Power before public service! I agree that it was necessary, but only because most of us had no protection from corona to speak of, thanks to our short-sighted, greedy elites.
I see these various numbers on cases and infection rates as questionable because of questions about their testing efficacy.
Deaths are objective, especially excess mortality rates. Those are the most solid of all parameters. As to the others, they seem nebulous, by very degrees. I’m sure ome are highly accurate, but i have no way of knowing which ones.