Jared Kushner controls Trump’s 2020 campaign.
The Jared strategy has always been to assume the White working class vote with the heavy margins is there and to focus on pandering to minorities because “they have no place to go.”
But Trump is tilting at the margins with those groups. His biggerproblem is the demographic that sent him to the White House — white voters, whose embrace of Trump appears to be slipping in critical, predominantly white swing states.
In Minnesota, where the contest between Trump and Joe Biden had seemed to tighten in recent weeks — and where both candidates stumped on Friday — a CBS News/YouGov survey last week had Trump running 2 percentage points behind Biden with white voters, after carrying them by 7 points in 2016. Even among white voters without college degrees — Trump’s base — the president was far short of the margin he put up against Hillary Clinton there. …”
The current scaremongering about “Joe Biden’s America” is resonating … with Hispanics. It doesn’t appear to be working with its intended audience of White voters.
White suburbanites have been souring on the GOP for years and don’t feel particularly threatened by the Antifa and BLM chaos in Democratic cities. The GOP has told White senior citizens that it doesn’t count when they die of COVID-19 because they are old and have preexisting conditions anyway. Older White voters are far more worried about dying of COVID-19 than from Antifa burning down Portland. As for the White working class, swing voters in the Midwest “Blue Wall” states who voted for Trump in 2016 because he seemed different have figured out that the GOP has been restored to power. The Far Right vote isn’t there for Trump like it was in 2016. The 2020 election has more of a 2012 vibe.
Suburbanites, the Far Right, Midwestern working class swing voters who voted for change and seniors are the defections from MAGA. They aren’t sold on Biden, but they aren’t sold on Trump 2020.