The GOP’s Populist Problem

This is why Donald Trump was elected president in 2016.

Voter Study Group:

  • Liberal (44.6 percent): Lower left, liberal on both economic and identity issues
  • Populist (28.9 percent): Upper left, liberal on economic issues, conservative on identity issues
  • Conservative (22.7 percent): Upper right, conservative on both economic and identity issues
  • Libertarian (3.8 percent): Lower right, conservative on economics, liberal on identity issues

Donald Trump was able to come over into the Populist quadrant (28.9% of the 2016 electorate) and win over 65% of the vote. It enabled him to do magical things like win the Rust Belt. Evidently, he won even more conservatives and Republicans in 2020, but failed to replicate his success in the Center with White Moderate and Independent voters making under $100,000 a year.

Who were these voters?

We’re not dumb here. It was the Alt-Right/American Preservationists/Hard-Pressed Skeptics and the Alt-Lite/Anti-Elites/Young Outsiders/New Era Enterprisers. It is the two different types of right-leaning moderates which have always been found in the Pew typologies for over twenty years now.

Staunch Conservatives and Free Marketeers are the Right.

In the latest Pew typology, these two distinct groups are the “Country First Conservatives” and “Core Conservatives” respectively. In the previous Pew typology in 2014, they were labeled the “Steadfast Conservatives” and “Business Conservatives.” These two groups anchor the GOP.

There is some common ground between the two groups. Both groups had the same perception of not being represented by the government and voted for Trump in 2016.

White racial identity is TWICE as salient though for American Preservationists.

Cultural libertarianism is the defining quality of the Alt-Lite:

The GOP has a class problem and a populist problem. Democrats tend to support the same economic policies regardless of class. Republicans do not.

Voter Study Group:

“By contrast there was a substantial Republican class divide on economic issues, with lower-income Republicans (those with family incomes under $40,000 per year) reporting more progressive views than higher-income Republicans (those with family incomes over $80,000per year).(2) The majority of lower-income Republicans supported paid leave for parents and tax credits for lower-income workers. A clear plurality supported breaking up big banks (39 percent vs. 23 percent). Lower-income Republicans were about evenly split on higher taxes for families making over $200,000 (45 percent support vs. 44 percent oppose), and raising the minimum wage (41 percent support vs. 35 percent oppose). Making it easier to unionize and reducing inequality were the only policies that received little support from lower-income Republicans.

Higher-income Republicans were much more skeptical of progressive economic policies. Less than a quarter of Republicans with family incomes over $80,000 per year supported raising the minimum wage or increasing taxes on families with incomes over $200,000. The most popular progressive policy among higher-income Republicans, tax credits for low-income workers, was only supported by half of these respondents.

The Republican class divide was largest when it came to taxing families with incomes over $200,000; lower-income Republicans were 22 percentage points more likely to say they should pay more in taxes than higher-income Republicans (45 percent vs. 23 percent). Among Democrats, the class divide on taxing these families was only four percentage points — with higher-income Democrats more likely to support raising their taxes (83 percent vs. 79 percent). …

Republicans were more diverse in their economic views and that diversity correlated with income. Higher-income Republicans were, on average, more economically conservative than lower-income Republicans. About 19 percent of Republicans held economic policy positions closer to the average Democrat than the average Republican, placing them on the “economic left.” By contrast, just 9 percent of Democrats held economic positions closer to the average Republican, placing them on the “economic right.” …

Partisanship is a powerful force, but the votes of Democrats and Republicans outside of their party’s economic mainstream are more likely to be up for grabs ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Since one in five Republicans hold economic policy preferences closer to the average Democrat, while one in 10 Democrats hold economic policy preferences close to the average Republican, economic policies have the potential to play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.”

1 out of every 5 Republicans is more of a Democrat on economics.

Independents are far more moderate on economics.

The GOP chose to give these people nothing on race or populism.

The policy and strategy was let them eat tweets, corporate tax cuts and the Platinum Plan:

There are two different types of populists.

There is the type that is satisfied with zaniness, conspiracy theories, owning the libs, token gestures, tweets and Trump’s personality cult. The other type is only interested in policy concessions. The latter group moved toward Trump because he seemed to offer them something in the 2016 election. In the 2018 and 2020 elections, they swung away from the GOP which lost the House and White House.

About Hunter Wallace 12367 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent


  1. Yet Trump still decisively won the white vote which is the only vote that is ever up for grabs. Blacks and Browns simply don’t vote in the same patterns as whites.

    To a degree Republican clownery reflects this nettlesome problem. Each time they have to try to get 62% of the white vote, even though that can’t possibly be done with a coherent economic message.

    And we know that Democrats talk a good game about healthcare and jobs but rarely deliver the goods.

    • The Republicans will try some really silly things to “win back” their voters, like run Donald Trump, Jr., or some more women candidates. Or a “black conservative”. They will still fail to see why people are rejecting them.

  2. Do you see what is happening? The GOP is going to be destroyed and we are going to be left with two parties one socialist and one communist. There will be nothing else to choose from.

  3. This article should be retitled The (((GOP)))’s populist problem in all seriousness lol

    After Blumpfs loss the neocons like Lindsay Graham can go back to fist bumping kamel toe harris and other neo liberal dems in peace

  4. I should like to hear more about the “disengaged”, HW. I think that’s the group which best describes me.

    • Communists take a good care that you will be very much engaged. When Donald falls, you will pass the very same procedure, what France had in the 1789 or we had in the 1917.

      Every last disaster in the history was caused by the singing and dancing ignorant people, who believed that this can not happen to us.

      One reason, why I check OD very often, is the very professional history articles. . Our ones, written before 1917 are also good. .

      Similarity is just horrific. French revolution happened 128 years before our information enlighted era in the 1917. so In our modern times with newspapers and steam engines and telegraph, such dark horror just can not happen. again. Now, 1917 happened 103 years before current mess in the 2020, so in our enlighted internet whatever era , this just can`t happen.

      Tens of millions heavily armed WW I experienced God believing Russian white males just can not fall into the slavery of snowflake homosexual weirdos.

      Yes we did.

      How many guns or canned food Soros owns ?

      Your singing and dancing ignorance kills you as it killed us in the 1917. You know, communists just do not care, are you constitutional ignorant or free market dysfunctionalist or bullshit absurd whateverist or just scream that you are not racist like those South African idiots deserved to be killed.

      When Donald falls, liberal whites coming after you.

      • Yes, what you say is true. But Iosef Vissarionovich Dzugashvili came along in 1924 to stop Lev Davidovich Bronstein and the Left Opposition.

      • Juri, the Tsar was betrayed long before the Bolshevik Revolution; his generals and government ministers betrayed him on the very brink of victory over the Germans and Austro-Hungarians, his ”abdication decree” was a forgery, and even the ”Holy Synod” rejected him and the Autocracy. His loyal Cossack guards were replaced by hand-picked republicans, and he was under arrest, basically. Almost all Russia rejected the Tsar, all those who had any power anyway.

        • I have always read that the 1905 defeat in the Russo – Japanese War led to a major crisis of confidence in the Tsar and the ruling class because they were perceived to be incompetent, amongst other things. The Tsar lost much of the Pacific Fleet after the Japanese surprise attack at Port Arthur then the Baltic Fleet after an 18,000 mile voyage around the Cape of Good Hope at the Battle of Tsushima. The defeat shocked much of the world which believed the Japanese were incapable of defeating a European power.

          If history repeats it is the declining U.S. that is risking defeat by a rising China over Taiwan and other territorial issues in the Pacific. If a defeat were to happen it would also shatter confidence in the U.S. Government by asking the question: How could this happen? The answer, that 70 years of diversity, multiculturalism, equality, third world immigration and industrial decline is unacceptable. The ruling class in the U.S. is mostly concerned with money and is unteachable and incapable of learning, they hate and fear the truth and actively suppress heretical ideas thus it is impossible to change the destructive path the U.S. is on.

  5. No one cares. The election was stolen. How bout you start talking about all the anti-white legislation coming down the pike? You won’t though, will you (((brad)))

  6. Trump still won by ten million votes, aside from the fraud. Not bad. I seriously think your data set is all kiked up. Garbage in garbage out.

  7. I don’t believe our elections are real, and this election just revealed some of it. I didn’t feel anyone represented me, anyways. I am tired of people saying “Trump HAS to get in, or things will get bad.” They are already bad, and if people think otherwise, they live in a bubble.
    It was obvious that both parties only care about the brown votes. Whites are the expendable group.

  8. Yes and now the Republicans are lost in translation as the fake Populist / Nationalist figure head that won them the White House is now a defeated 1 term President. He never delivered on his campaign promises of being a Populist/ Nationalist. The economy was already getting better under Obama but the rich and others are always afraid of spending money while the Democrats are in power. So when Trump got elected the Super Rich spent money and the Stock Market went up. He delivered for the Super Rich which is the absolute enemy of Populists, Nationalists, Moderates, the Working Class, Unions, Southerners, and the overall White Nationalist community. We got nothing in return and I’m glad I never Voted for him. It’s impossible for the GOP to embrace our ideas and values because we care about things other than money…such as God, Family, Race, Southern Heritage & Culture, Upward Mobility, Unions, and White Weatern Civilization. Deo Vindice !

  9. So the problem here as I see it is that the new left in the 60s drove these people out of the Democratic Party and they are not comfortable in the Republicans. Would’t the answer be for them to start voting again in the Democratic Primaries to try to take that party back from the radical left? If the US does become a one party state, many will see voting in the Republican primaries as pointless vote wasting. The actual election will be decided in the Democrat Primaries and you may see a lot more whites showing up in the primaries and moderating the party.

    • Neither party wants to represent whites, out of fear of being called racists. That’s the whole problem, no one represents us.

  10. HW, going forward, how about just pure nationalism with all its “warts”? Once the plundering/pillaging of the white areas begins all this PC garbage will disappear just as the call for no guns dropped off when liberals themselves were confronted by the violent BLMers, antifa, anarchists these past few months.

    If Biden does “win” and maybe the Dems win the two Senate seats needed isn’t the whole game over? Won’t white nationalism then be the ONLY hope left for Western Civilization in the Yankee Empire? If Biden gets in and does as expected and grants amnesty to the millions (11 – 30 million) of illegal aliens and “flattens” our border protection to let anybody/everybody come storming in to get their piece of shrinking pie — GAME OVER!

    And then what happens? You no longer have the votes to preserve anything including your very existence.

    Of course if this happens the always devious politician class always looking for a free ride will kick any of the true nationalists aside and claim they were always a white nationalist and we dummies need to start sending in our money in to support them to save the dear remnant of white civilization and preserve our white history and heritage.

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