There is good news and bad news for Joe Biden in this poll.
The good news which is in line with all the polling on the subject is that the public continues to approve of Joe’s handling of COVID and strongly support stimulus checks. Joe’s approval rating has GONE UP in this poll. Republicans continue to be hopelessly out of touch on COVID and stimulus checks.
The bad news is that an outright majority of voters now disapprove of Joe’s immigration policy and agree that there is a gathering crisis on the Mexican border. These two issues are also not of equal importance moving forward. Now that the vaccine is going out and spring weather is here, COVID is rapidly fading as a highly salient issue and life will soon be returning to normal. Joe has also used budget reconciliation to deliver the $1,400 stimulus checks. As with the previous two stimulus checks under Trump, the money will be spent fast and people will move on and the same structural issues will be left unresolved.
Here is what is going to happen: COVID is going to fade as an issue which works to the advantage of Democrats. Meanwhile, immigration and crime which are issues which work to the advantage of Republicans are rising in importance. Joe Biden and the Democrats are also solely responsible for the developing immigration crisis on the border and the BLM crime wave sweeping the big cities. We know from past experience in 2014 and 2015 how destabilizing to our politics such crises can be.
“A majority of Americans disapprove of President Biden’s handling of immigration issues and believe that, overall, the situation along the U.S.-Mexico border has gotten worse since he took office, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
The poll, which surveyed 1,556 U.S. adults between March 23 and 25, found that 62 percent of respondents believe there is a “crisis” at the Mexican border, a word Biden administration officials have bent over backward to avoid in recent days, as the growing number of migrant children in federal custody at the border has become the subject of national media attention and intense political scrutiny. …”
“The survey of 1,556 U.S. adults, which was conducted from March 23 to March 25, found that Biden’s approval rating on COVID-19 has climbed 5 percentage points (from 51 percent to 56 percent) over the past two weeks. A near-identical majority of Americans (55 percent) now say they support the administration’s recently passed COVID relief package — up from 52 percent in February — while just a quarter (25 percent) say they oppose it.
Biden’s gains on COVID come largely from independents, 54 percent of whom now say they approve of the president’s handling of the pandemic — up 11 points from earlier this month. …”
“President Joe Biden‘s approval rating has risen over the past two weeks, but approval of his administration’s immigration policies hovers below 40 percent, according to new polling. …
However, Biden gets low marks when it comes to immigration. Just 37 percent of Americans said they approve of Biden’s handling of immigration policy, and 44 percent said they disapprove. While the new administration has resisted calling the situation at the southern border a “crisis,” that is out of step with a significant majority (62 percent) of Americans, who say there is a “crisis” playing out. Additionally, 45 percent of Americans believe the situation has gotten worse and only 19 percent believe it has improved. …”
The border crisis which Joe Biden has unleashed by ending the Remain in Mexico policy is just getting started too and is projected to go on for at least the next seven months.
“The Biden administration projects the number of unaccompanied children crossing the border could spiral from more than 16,000 this month to as many as 26,000 in September, according to documents leaked to Axios.
Why it matters: Until this month, the record was 11,475 in May 2019. The minimum projections for each of the next six months are thousands higher than that. …
The big picture: Under current policies, the government is facing unheard of numbers of migrant kids illegally crossing the border this fiscal year — from 159,000 to 184,000. …”
Now comes the hard part for Joe.
Joe shot his load when he issued that flurry of executive orders in January and February and the COVID relief bill was finally passed in March. The House has already passed several bills. The Democrat wish list is now headed to doom in the Senate unless the filibuster is abolished.
It is easy to see Joe and the Democrats getting overwhelmed by the biggest immigration crisis in decades on the border, frustration and resentment growing as the progressive agenda dies in the Senate and the biggest spike in crime in thirty years getting much worse in summer weather. There are also any number of other issues which could potentially take a dramatic turn for the worse like a foreign policy crisis. Alternatively, the child tax credit included in the COVID relief bill could be a game changer.
Looking ahead, I anticipate immigration, crime and political correctness or cancel culture will rise in importance. COVID will definitely decease in importance. The economy could rebound big time and Joe could take credit for that, but it is too early to say where we will be in 2022.
Note: Immigration, crime, political correctness and censorship are all issues which are in our wheelhouse. Regardless of what happens with Republicans (who cares?), these issues drive new people into our corner and we should get our act together and start pushing our issues, interest and agenda again. If Republicans want to seize on and amplify our traditional issues, well, that’s fine.