Poll Watch: Democratic Favorability Plunges To 29%

This is fantastic news.

I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but I am closely monitoring how Democrats respond to Trump 2.0, as it is one of the biggest questions of the year. How does the party move forward?

If 2024 hinged on whether Donald Trump would win a second term as president or go to prison or be assassinated, 2025 hinges on the identity and actions of the minority party.

Scenario #1: The familiar cycle of “thermostatic” politics kicks in, Trump’s poll numbers and favorability collapses, the pendulum swings back to Democrats who are rewarded in the 2026 midterms.

Scenario #2: Trump breaks the thermostat like FDR, depolarizes politics and assembles a strong governing majority and with a new governing ideology analogous to New Deal liberalism. In this scenario, the Democrats don’t rebound and collapse even further like Republicans in the Great Depression. We move out of the era of gridlock and a sharply polarized electorate into a new mainstream.

This polling gives me hope that is going to be Door #2.

Note: Have you seen egg prices lately?

4 Comments

  1. Scenario #3

    Like we had in the Soviet Union back in the august 1991. At the certain point they understand that everything is lost and no midterms or any other fantasy will not help them.

    Because they have nowhere to go, they go full Hail Mary and attempt open coup. Like ours brought tanks to the streets. Then Q moves in and Jew World Order will be over.

  2. Yeah – I have seen egg prices – 6 bucks/dozen at Aldi yesterday which is 50cents higher than last week and the highest I have seen them.

  3. This is what I predict will happen. Republicans run on social issues to get elected, but then govern on economic issues that benefit the rich. This dynamic will play out and Trump will be no different than Bush or Reagan on that, but with fake populist rhetoric. In the worst case scenario, Republicans won’t collapse until 2028. In the best case scenario they’ll collapse in 2026. The grift will be over and I’ll welcome it, likely supporting the Democratic nominee as long as it’s not Kamala Harris or a 90 year old. I’m happily waiting for Trump’s grift to fail.

    • This old critique was true of the GOP establishment.

      Trump has governed as promised though on social issues: on affirmative action, Students for Fair Admissions, on abortion, Dobbs, on immigration, he has stopped illegal immigration, on transgenderism, he has done a lot of things, on race and DEI, he has dismantled it across the federal government. It isn’t true that Trump is ignoring social issues.

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