American National Division

I’m still a secessionist.

I still support a National Divorce. It is my preferred option.

The last month or so though has really highlighted the difference between what I would like to see happen and what I think will happen which I have discussed at times in the comments.

1. First, America is arguably more deeply divided today than it was in the 1850s and 1860s, but it is divided in several different ways – rural vs. urban, Heartland vs. Coasts, educated women vs. working class men, etc. – and the Mason-Dixon line isn’t the fault line of our national division.

2. Second, the West Coast is the most disaffected section that is losing power and influence in the Union, and the South is the section that is becoming more dominant. The unrest is concentrated among White liberals in Northern and Western big cities. Stephen Miller is correct that the residents of Dothan, AL would be unphased by the presence of the National Guard because they see themselves as patriotic “Real Americans.” Federal installations are under assault in cities like Portland. White rural Southerners aren’t burning the flag or plotting to secede from the Union. The governor of Illinois is in rebellion.

3. Third, we are seeing the beginning of the Gilded Sunbelt era where political power, wealth and cultural influence is shifting away from places like New York City and Los Angeles to the Sunbelt. Watching Northern and Western Democrats crying “states rights” as the Texas National Guard is deployed to Oregon and Illinois to impose Reconstruction on violent leftists has been very amusing.

If there is a “Civil War 2” or some kind of conflict, we are more likely to end up on the Union side.

Note: Redistricting and the Supreme Court entertaining a major challenge to the Voting Rights Act could fuel this power shift in Congress ahead of the 2030 Census.

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