JP MORGAN: Forecasting 5% food inflation and global food crisis next year.
— Maine (@TheMaineWonk) August 25, 2026
Why? A confluence of events:
– Geopolitcs
– Major Logistics Issues (freight charges, transit time & fuel costs) pic.twitter.com/nw3xmDiISy
We don’t have a farm crisis.
We have an idiot-in-the-White House crisis.
“But the latest crisis has defied her careful planning: President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his war with Iran have driven up the cost of fertilizer, fuel and machinery just as weak crop prices have made it harder to cover those rising expenses.
“I am afraid that we’re looking into the barrel of another farm crisis,” said Johnson, a fourth-generation farmer, who estimates her profits are down by as much as 50 percent. “And we all know historically what that did to our … rural communities.” …
Johnson is among hundreds of thousands of American farmers who say they are desperate for relief from Washington as Trump administration policies raise costs and slash profits. Just last week, Trump slapped 50 percent tariffs on Canada, a critical source of fertilizer and farm equipment. And he wrote in a Truth Social post that he would pause tariffs on some imported ground beef in an effort to lower grocery prices, infuriating U.S. cattle ranchers who say the move would undermine domestic herders. …
“Right now, if you’re growing something in the ground, you’re losing money. And it’s not just a crop, it’s virtually every crop, and it’s virtually every region of the country,” said Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Arkansas). …”
The fertilizer situation was already bad due to the war in Ukraine and the war with Iran for Israel. Trump’s retarded trade war with Canada isn’t helping matters.
FT:
“Farmers in America’s Corn Belt say they are facing their worst crisis in 40 years, as an explosion in diesel and fertiliser costs triggered by Donald Trump’s Iran war pushes grain producers to the brink.
The growing strains are the latest sign of how the conflict in the Middle East, now in its sixth month, is reverberating through the US’s heartland ahead of crucial midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.
“Inputs are way out of whack,” said Matt Bailey, who grows corn and soyabeans in eastern Nebraska. He said 11-52-0, a phosphorus-rich fertiliser used at planting time that was priced at $470 a tonne 10 years ago, now costs more than $900. “Where do you start with that? How do you budget for that?” …”
We’re all going to pay for this next year.
We’ve been paying for Ukraine for the last four years.
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