I see that Andrew Anglin whose opinions I have long boasted of not sharing has responded to my critique of his debate with Greg Johnson at Unz.com.
There isn’t much of note to respond to in his response. As we saw in his debate with Greg Johnson, Anglin doesn’t know the difference between a coronavirus and an influenza virus, a novel virus which is the result of antigenic shift and a virus going through antigenic drift, a case fatality rate (CFR) and an infection fatality rate (IFR), zoonosis or a basic reproduction number. I’ve never claimed to be an expert, but at least I have made an effort to become familiar with basic terms so that I can try to follow along.
I’ve tried with difficulty to remember a time in my life when over 50,000 people have died in the United States from the flu in April. We had the flu this year and only 24,000 people are estimated to have died from it in the 2019/2020 flu season. These flu estimates are not even real people with confirmed deaths in body bags. They are statistical extrapolations from pneumonia deaths. Confirmed flu deaths normally range from 3,488 to 15,620 in the worst flu season on record. The CDC estimates that 61,000 people died from the flu in the 2017/2018 flu season. Since Andrew Anglin’s debate with Greg Johnson, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, not estimates, has already surpassed that figure.
As things stand today, there are 1,156,217 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States. There are 918,792 active cases. We are only 20.5% of the way through our current confirmed cases. Of our confirmed closed cases (237,425), 72% recovered and 29% ended in death. Globally, 244,105 (18% of cases) out of 1,358,307 closed cases ended in death. The U.S. case fatality rate has risen from 5.67% to 5.87% as American deaths have climbed from 59,266 to 67,255 since Anglin’s debate with Greg Johnson. The death toll climbed north of “just the flu, bro” two days ago.
COVID-19’s death toll is now only in the realm of the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century. 100,000 died in the 1968 influenza pandemic. 116,000 died in the 1957 influenza pandemic. 670,000 Americans died in the Spanish Flu. The current official death toll doesn’t include presumed positive deaths outside of New York City, most deaths in nursing homes, excess deaths above historical norms, deaths at home without a positive test, reported deaths classified as pneumonia, etc. The true death toll is already likely north of 80,000 to 90,000. Only 1 out of 5 cases has resolved in the United States. The MIT model is projecting 168,455 deaths by August without even considering the reopening.
In my review of Anglin’s debate with Greg Johnson, I cleaned up his mess by pointing out that there is a legitimate scientific debate about the IFR of COVID-19. The ordinary flu has an IFR of 0.04% and a CFR of 0.1%. The current debate is over whether the IFR of COVID-19 is similar to the CFR of the ordinary flu which is 0.1% or whether it is significantly higher. Most experts believe that the IFR of COVID-19 is 0.8% to 1% and the R0 is < 2 which is significantly higher than the flu. The CFR of COVID-19 is a moving target as we run through our cases, but it is 12.32% in Sweden which ought to give us pause about reopening. There aren’t any countries reporting a CFR like the flu which is 0.1%.
In order to reach herd immunity and quell the epidemic given the high R0 of COVID-19, which is significantly higher than the flu, it would have to infect around 70% of the population. It would continue infecting even more people due to a phenomena called overshoot. There are 328.2 million Americans. If we assume the IFR of COVID-19 is 0.8% to 1% and no one has immunity to it because it is a novel virus, we would expect it to kill between 1,837,920 and 2,296,000 Americans when herd immunity is reached after it has infected 70% of the population. The epidemic would fade after that point.
There is a comforting fantasy that the IFR isn’t that bad and is closer to the case fatality rate of the flu which is 0.1%. Even if that were the case, it would be 10x as deadly as the flu with a far higher attack rate. The reason why this is highly unlikely to be the case is that the virus has already killed far more people. There are 8.399 million people in New York City. If the virus had an IFR of 0.1% and we assume everyone in the city was infected, it should have only killed 8,399 people. Instead, the recent antibodies study in New York City only found a seroprevelence of 21%. New York state is reporting 24,368 deaths which can’t be explained with a 0.1% IFR. Similarly, Dougherty County, GA is reporting 124 deaths with a population of 94,565. If everyone in the county were infected, the virus would have killed 94 people with an IFR of 0.1%. The virus has already killed more than 0.1% of the population in lots of places around the world.
If we are going to look at antibodies studies, we should look at Bergamo in Lombardy in northern Italy where the two towns that were hit hardest by the virus and where the medical system was famously overwhelmed in March is reporting a seroprevalence level of 61% which is close to the 70% infection rate required to reach herd immunity. New York City’s medical system came close to being overwhelmed in early April, but it appears that only 21% of New Yorkers may have been exposed to the virus. New York City would have to get Bergamo level bad to reach herd immunity. The famous study by John Ioannidis which Anglin didn’t read only found a 2.49% to 4.16% seroprevalence rate in Santa Clara County, CA. Even if we assume there was nothing wrong with the John Ioannidis study, maybe that is why Santa Clara County never got as bad as the 21% in New York City and 61% level of exposure to the virus that was detected in Bergamo. The relative difference in the seroprevalence rates of these antibodies studies which measure exposure to COVID-19 show why the hospitals were not overwhelmed.
As I stated in my review of the original Andrew Anglin vs. Greg Johnson debate, COVID-19 is a disease that is caused solely by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The flu is not a similar disease. It does not have the same symptoms or clinical course. The flu doesn’t typically kill people by causing acute respiratory distress syndrome which is how most people die of COVID-19. It doesn’t hospitalize adults at nearly the same rate. When people who get the flu die of pneumonia, it is usually a secondary bacterial infection, not a highly contagious virus that infects and kills doctors and health care workers. In addition to destroying the air sacs in the lungs by triggering a massive immune response, the flu doesn’t commonly cause deaths by heart attacks and kidney failure. Influenza doesn’t kill T cells. It doesn’t cause nerve damage which is why COVID-19 patients report temporarily losing their sense of taste and smell. COVID-19 is a disease caused by a virus that is genetically far more similar to SARS and MERS both of which jumped to humans from bats. Finally, flu season ended a month ago and the virus is still killing Americans in May like in previous pandemics because this virus acts “like no pathogen humanity has ever seen.”
The Chinese government clearly took the threat seriously and moved with lightning speed to lockdown Wuhan and Hubei province. This is understandable in light of what we now know about the severity of the disease caused by the pathogen and its potential to infect and kill millions of people. 780 million people were locked down in China in order to suppress the epidemic. The Chinese Communist Party didn’t have the same intelligence though that Andrew Anglin has received that the virus was “just the flu.” They just shut down their economy and welded people in their homes to stop the ordinary flu. Apparently, the Trump administration is staffed by people as dumb, callous and credulous as Andrew Anglin, which is why the threat wasn’t taken seriously and why we are all now in this situation.
I agree with Andrew that the gap between conspiracy theorists, truthers and science illiterates and those of us who are following the scientific debate about the IFR of COVID-19 breaks down along lines of intelligence, education, ideology and morals. Andrew Anglin speaks for those who incline toward ignorance, greed, selfishness and cruelty, who are attention whoring in order to attract clicks to their websites and who reject science and medicine in favor of paranoid conspiracy theories. As Andrew himself said in his debate with Greg Johnson (timestap 41:11), he would rather 2.2 million of his fellow citizens die than be inconvenienced by a lockdown. Personally, he has a low chance of dying from COVID-19, which in the final analysis is all that really matters. In his view, the death of the elderly is a blessing anyway.
We come from very different backgrounds. Andrew’s background was always in the “internet truth” community. From 2006 to 2012, he ran two websites called OutlawJournalism.com and RealitySituation.com, which he has carefully scrubbed all traces of from the internet in order to cover up his past as a lunatic who fled to the Philippines to live in the jungle to escape from human civilization because he had come to believe that the Reptilians and the New World Order were a “scientific dictatorship” who were trying to enslave him by implanting a microchip in his brain. At the time, he was reading his mentor David Icke and was posting hundreds of comments on his forum. It appears that after all this time the New World Order is still out to get Andrew Anglin.
The Philippines had another major attraction to Andrew Anglin. It has a reputation for being a magnet for losers from all over the developed world who lack confidence in dealing with women.
Living in the Philippines was an opportunity for Andrew to become a big man and to live off his daddy’s money and donations from gullible internet cranks to have sex with as many doe-eyed Third World tween prostitutes as possible. This is a sensitive subject for Andrew who in addition to his mildly schizophrenic addiction to conspiracy theories (see his literal interpretation of Jayoh’s escape from the United States on the Anarchy Chopper) has major developmental issues with women stemming from the childhood trauma of his father’s failed marriage and being cucked by his high school girlfriend.
Andrew is known for writing 10,000 word essays about the subject, which no one but other incels ever read, in which he passionately defends his hero Harvey Weinstein or fantasizes about lusting after, beating up and raping the Little Mermaid in a post-apocalyptic America. He is an expert on women although in spite of being almost forty years old has never been known to have a steady girlfriend.
I don’t agree with Dr. Andrew “Mountain Dew” Anglin’s diagnosis that the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is a relatively mild flu. We passed a normal flu season about 30,000 deaths ago. As far as I can tell, shit for brains has no expertise in anything as will soon become apparent.
Note: The government should have the power to just vaccinate people who are this dumb.
Ewww. I don’t pay any attention to Anglin at all – but at least you are semi writing about something else besides CoronaChan, sort of – so Anglin has sort of served a useful purpose.
The collapse of the neo-liberal world order, economic collapse, the shutting of international travel and the closing of borders previously said to be impossible seems noteworthy. For those who support a change in the status quo it’s kind of important.
For others the really important stuff is getting a burger and a haircut.
Enough already. Anglin’s credibility is in tatters after this plague.
You ought to switch tactics to encouraging white boys into fighting yellow boys because that’s the last neocon card to play. Deflect all blame onto the first government who had to cope and deal with the problem.
That does seem to be new objective being pushed by the morons in the government, a war with China. A war which we won’t win.
I’m not pushing for a war with China. I’d like Americans to push the Gooks OUT. Any one clamoring for a war with China is pushing the Jew agenda. There are other ways to push the Gooks OUT. The first is be mean to slopes. STOP ACCEPTING Aliens. You can also stop buying their GARBAGE. After this Anti White lockdown – we’ve learned to do without, haven’t we? Figure out what you can flush.
Is Andrew Anglin even white? He looks like one of those albino Negroes.
@Ricky…
Mr. Anglin’s skull structure, and, yes, eyes, and nose, reflect dominant Eastern European genes, whether he knows it or not.
His bulldog face is an archetype one can find from Slovakia/Carpatho-Galicia to the Ural Mountains, deep in Mother Russia.
We’ve accused him (jokingly) of being an octoroon, which he took seriously. There’s no reason to believe he is, but it is funny to use on him to get a reaction.
@Neil Chapman…
I see. Well … perhaps that was a bridge too far:)
I was wondering if all this e-drama could be avoided if a law was made, that if you don’t have a medical qualification you cannot legally give advice on medical matters. But then the Republicans and Democrats would find doctors with no morals willing to shill their talking points for them. The cigarette companies had their doctors too.
Nah, mostly it’s younger men arguing with slightly older men about their own personal risks with this thing. Anglin knows he’s practically invulnerable. But, who knows, maybe he’s got something he doesn’t know about yet.
Unfortunately, HIV is not that prevalent in the Philippines.
“The flu, but with electrolytes” is great. I’m stealing that.
There’s no contradiction between believing this disease is a serious threat and having a conspiratorial view of things. Quite the contrary. Unfortunately, attempting to take down Anglin personally undermines the case you’re trying to make. I don’t think there’s any doubt this disease is serious, certainly more serious than the seasonal flu, and those who say otherwise are basically pulling our legs. Which is why it isn’t really necessary to address what they say. On the other hand, there is a legitimate debate about what steps are justified to control an epidemic of the severity that we see. It would have been much simpler to obviate this problem by having control over our borders and sufficiency in our manufactures and competency in disease surveillance. Unfortunately, with a fraud like Trump, that is impossible. There are many motives for the deniers, some simply don’t want to have to psychologically deal with the possibility of contracting and dying of a deadly disease, and those who believe they are invulnerable seem as though they may fit in that category. I don’t think there’s any doubt that this situation will be exploited by those who want to increase control of the population: the support for censorship is getting stronger and stronger. Some of these people are also convinced that Trump is standing between them and left-wing dictatorship, unfortunately, Trump is a Judas Goat with the natural instincts and preferences of a full-bore shitlib, which is the benign explanation for why he did so little to protect the country from the disease. He was acting and thinking just like the shitlibs he surrounds himself with, unless he was acting and thinking just like the sinister Jews he surrounds himself with. The sinister Jews who would have no scruples about permitting a deadly contagion to spread to achieve various criminal aims.
“It’s just the flu” is interesting to look at as propaganda, rather than as any sort of serious argument.
First of all, it disarms fear. Secondly, it absolves the government of negligence in people’s minds, as they see the government letting the flu spread unchecked without any special measures. Thirdly, it greatly mitigates the guilt of those who may have deliberately created and spread the virus, first overseas, and then domestically.
Anglin changed tack dramatically, from blaming Trump for letting the virus in, to minimizing the severity. That raises some questions as to why.
Brawndo has electrolytes. It’s what plants crave
He is pointing out that it’s leading to significant sabre rattling with China though.
Why he’s pointing that out is another question.
All of this had to be written & should be spoken within families across America. Thank You. Anglin is a loser who would like nothing more than to bring as many young men down with him as possible.
I agree, misery loves company. He’s unable to maintain a good relationship with a woman and has been unable to have children, so what he does is program young men for failure so he’s not the only one.
Vickey – I think it’s more like as many young men going down ON him as possible.
Do you think he’s a homosexual? He might be. Wouldn’t surprise me.
There is a serious issue though. In the US governors get to contradict and undermine central control. So you get jerks like Cuomo and that Michigan democratic governor play not so subtle games with figures, risks and other semantic games. Trump did next to nothing and various left wing governors leaped into the gap with overkill measures and highly contradictory advice about masks, travel and Distancing along with how Quarantine out to function.
The Mommy Jibe, or Jive (nods to Bonacourssi)
Really doesn’t apply to to public health measures. In history you see responses to plagues that were much more pernicious an counter productive.
Hunter Wallace is wrong about the coronavirus lock-downs – but he’s right about Andrew Anglin.
Why do you make personal attacks toward Anglin?
Agree or disagree with him on this, I see no reason for that.
It was Anglin who made the argument that our backgrounds have determined our response to the virus. I agreed … he is clearly uneducated, morally unhinged and his background is the internet truth and conspiracy theory worlds.
Hunter, I respect a lot of your opinions, but your White Knighting for those filthy whores who sold themselves to Weinstein for favors …
… and now are vile enough to throw someone else under the bus in order to shift the blame off themselves, so that they can feel all pure and justified by destroying someone else for what THEY did …
… is as ridiculous as any of Anglin’s virus denial and ignorance.
These women are trash; evil trash, in fact. I hate Weinstein because he makes me side with a jew, but on behalf of men everywhere, he committed no crime. He gave these strumpets what they wanted, and they’re now using the state’s tyrannical power to destroy him simply in order to feel better about themselves. Their actions are purely malicious, to a shocking and frankly depressing degree.
At this time of day, White Knighting is absurd. You’re not winning any points if you claim that women are sweet, angelic creatures who can do no wrong, or are in any way equivalent to men. The cat is out of the bag, the blush is off the rose. and all you’ll get from people with actual awareness of female nature in response to your feminism is a scornful laugh.
Even those of us who still like them after coming to an understanding of their actual nature, such as myself, understand that they aren’t some kind of Wonderful Perfect Mommies and Guardians of Virtue. They’re female mammals, programmed for promiscuity and to support the winner, ready to betray their tribe and people at the drop of a hat, who need to be kept on a tight leash or they will undermine and destroy you.
We’ve rediscovered the wisdom of our forefathers who knew that women are mentally somewhere between child and adult — perpetual rebellious teenagers, if you will — and therefore have to be kept under control, as they actually want to be, or they’ll turn into a destructive, chaotic blight working gleefully to tear down civilization. As we can see with the hordes of female wreckers siding wholeheartedly with the enemy right now, or simply refusing to reproduce their own tribe.
I’d recommend avoiding the topic entirely. You don’t need to agree, but your efforts to defend women as The Eternal Innocent are, frankly, as laughable and ridiculous as Anglin’s “it’s just the flu, bro.” It’s just as big a denial of glaringly, overwhelmingly visible reality.
You’ve got plenty to roast Anglin over without stooping to ad hominem attacks, or, even worse, appeals to feminism.
This is a sincere effort to give advice. If I was really haranguing you about it, I would be a hell of a lot nastier. If you’ve got a picture-perfect marriage, great.
But your lecturing young guys dealing with a hellish feminist tyranny in this country with solemn, absurd “respect wahmen!” preaching shows as much detachment from reality as some liberal in a gated White community sanctimoniously sermonizing at their poor friends living outside the safe, gated bubble about how they shouldn’t be nervous about the “diversity” moving into their neighborhood and subjecting them to the considerable risk of physical attack, rape, or murder.
It’s too late, sir. We understand them, 100%. Chivalry is dead,and nobody will mourn its passing, because it was stupid to begin with and is now suicidal.
If women are so evil and stupid – then what about the centuries of White men who let it all happen? What are THEY?
Nobody said women are stupid.men are,women are evil,simple.
True,guess if you got ” cucked” by your High school girlfriend you are a piece of trash,if one of them aborts your son.you are a piece of trash.if she tricks you into raising another guys children,you are a piece of trash,if you are single,piece of trash,murdered in your bed by her for heir or life insurance,piece of trash,your fault.Always.
Of course Corona is not like the common flu. Undeniably that thing is much worse than the flu. But definitely not worse enough to shut down economy and public life for such a long time. 40 days of shutdown and hysteria should be enough. It’s time to bring on that herd immunity. Just let nature take its course. Sooner or later everyone will be confronted with that virus anyway. It’s impossible to hide from that thing forever, or until eventually there is vaccination available. Vaccination also might not bring salvation, as such kind of viruses are mutating constantly. So that herd immunity thing would be the best solution. There must be solidarity with the elderly and endangered people. They should be protected and cared of as good as possible. All other people should increasingly return to normal life…
Here in “Doofland” the recent situation is quite bizarre. The shitty government again made a lot of mistakes in this crisis, did so much mismanagement, wasted another hundreds of billions of Euro-shekels. But whatever they do, they are always praised by the accompanying mainstream media. The more they mess things up, the more they are lauded by those deviant journalists. And it goes on like this, from crisis to crisis, while problems are still unsolved. I despise the decadent corrupted system and was hoping for a change. But this kind of change is definitely not what i wanted. After about only 40 days of lockdown, along with political incompetence and stupid propaganda already so much damage has been done. Consequences will be devastating for almost everyone. Many companies will crash. Many people will lose their jobs. The only profiteers are the protagonists of the rotten system, some call it “Der Polit-Mediale-Komplex”. The popularity ratings for the Merkel-Mafia reportedly have reached new heights. And when eventually the entire country has gone down the sewer, they can just blame it on Corona and might get away with all the other crimes they comitted before. I just read that Merkel is seen as a kind of savior in this crisis, even by the international press. Of all people this woman, who has caused so much disaster!! All this shit is very hard to bear for the stomach. Nobody should believe mainstream media anymore. It is nothing but disinformation and lies!!
And it is also kind of sad to see that this once fine blog has literally become the Covidental Dissent.
Wie lange soll das noch so weiter gehen? Werd mal wieder normal Wallace!
By the way, that Anglin guy looks like the gollum. The long detention in his mothers basement obviously was not good for him. At least he is a good writer. His stuff is kind of funny to read, if not taken too seriously. Hopefully his disciples see his deranged look as a warning and will leave their houses more often. Especially for white nationalists it is very important to go out and show some presence on the streets. Alien invaders should not feel too comfortable in our homelands.
Hmmm,there is a gemetic requirement to be a WN now?how much it is in the USA?and somewhere else where whites live?
@Sturmführer78…
“Of course Corona is not like the common flu. Undeniably that thing is much worse than the flu. But definitely not worse enough to shut down economy and public life for such a long time. 40 days of shutdown and hysteria should be enough. It’s time to bring on that herd immunity. Just let nature take its course.”
I second every word of this statement!
Going forward, both of you appear think that war with China would be a mistake.
I see some people here bleating that the US is pushing for a war with China, when the truth of the matter is, they are pushing for a war with us. Here is a quote from a chink general:
The US is on the list of China’s “10 Inevitable Wars”.
They have stated they will use bio-weapons, both in the document “Unrestricted Warfare”, and in General Chi Haotian’s speech to CCP leadership. Here is a paragraph from that speech:”…
Conventional weapons such as fighters, canons, missiles and battleships won’t do; neither will highly destructive weapons such as nuclear weapons. We are not as foolish as to want to perish together with America by using nuclear weapons, despite the fact that we have been exclaiming that we will have the Taiwan issue resolved at whatever cost. Only by using non-destructive weapons that can kill many people will we be able to reserve America for ourselves. There has been rapid development of modern biological technology, and new bio-weapons have been invented one after another. Of course, we have not been idle, in the past years we have seized the opportunity to master weapons of this kind. We are capable of achieving our purpose of “cleaning up” America all of a sudden. When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focus instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country….”
Interesting. The Chinks don’t play by our rules.
Can you give me a link on that speech?
Thanks in advance.
Oh my gosh. These Anglin freaks are here. The correct response is to tell you, I made the best coconut cake in the world today. The secret was egg whites, with coconut oil in the batter.
I just made some chicken enchiladas
When we cook, they eat. I’m not gonna go there with these people. We are either better, or we are not. I am of the better camp. Our sons have never made more money, people overpay them, as a statement.
“I’m not gonna go there with these people.”
Go where? — so you’re not going to advocate for freedom from brutal, dumb government tyranny? — here is the title of Anglin’s piece on the Unz site, which Griffin conveniently does not mention: “Brad Griffin Is Not My Mommy and He Doesn’t Get to Decide Whether or Not I Can Play Outside”
One would think that Brad Griffin, as a victim of Establishment censorship/tyranny himself, would see the wisdom of not wholly endorsing complete government authority over our lives, including whether we can go to work and earn a living or not — especially since nearly all government activity is antithetical to the interests of Whites.
But if you thought that, you’d be wrong.
You’re right.
It is a simple math problem. Anglin’s math doesn’t make any sense.
I just made some chicken enchiladas
I miss your recipe posts Hunter, especially the Southern ones.
How ’bout something on pecan pie?!?
Haha, I seriously need to cut some weight. I ordered more takeout in April than ever before to support the local economy
“ordered more takeout in April than ever before to support the local economy”
Now, I’ve heard every excuse.
I made the best coconut cake in the world today. The secret was egg whites, with coconut oil in the batter.
Sounds delicious Vickey.
I see you are now on board with forced vaccinations. Sold your soul?