If I sound like I am strangely detached from the 2020 election season, it is because I believe that a national crisis is imminent and inevitable. I’m resigned to it.
“Almost three decades ago, one of us, Jack Goldstone, published a simple model to determine a country’s vulnerability to political crisis. The model was based on how population changes shifted state, elite and popular behavior. Goldstone argued that, according to this Demographic-Structural Theory, in the twenty-first century, America was likely to get a populist, America-first leader who would sow a whirlwind of conflict.
Then ten years ago, the other of us, Peter Turchin, applied Goldstone’s model to U.S. history, using current data. What emerged was alarming: The U.S. was heading toward the highest level of vulnerability to political crisis seen in this country in over a hundred years. Even before Trump was elected, Turchin published his prediction that the U.S. was headed for the “Turbulent Twenties,” forecasting a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe. …
These were the conditions that prevailed in the lead-up to the great upheavals in political history, from the French Revolution in the eighteenth century, to the revolutions of 1848 and the U.S. Civil War in the nineteenth century, the Russian and Chinese revolutions of the twentieth century and the many “color revolutions” that opened the twenty-first century. So, it is eye-opening that the data show very similar conditions now building up in the United States. …”
It doesn’t matter who wins the election.
The loser will consider the winner illegitimate. It will spiral from there. I don’t think our elites are capable of turning back at this point. They are going to plunge the country into chaos. At that point, the only viable “strategy” will be to ride it out and watch how the chips fall.
Look what Colin Kaepernick has done to professional sports:
Everyone across the board has been made miserable.
Kaepernick took an industry which had successfully deracinated Whites and promoted racial integration and which had become a golden ticket for blacks to become multimillionaires and polarized it and ruined it by making it a stage for performative social justice politics. Hollywood is now poised to make the same leap with the entertainment industry. Corporate America is making the same leap too.
Nothing but strife is ahead.