Joe Biden is now President-Elect of the United States.
How did Sleepy Joe pull off such an amazing result in the electoral college when the “Coalition of the Ascendant” sputtered on him and shifted toward Blumpf in 2020?
In 2020, Donald Trump was +4 in Based Blacks.
In 2020, Donald Trump was +3 with Hispanics and +2 in Asians.
There are strong indications that Donald Trump performed even better with minorities in 2020. He performed much better with the upper middle class and the wealthy, Asians, Republicans and black men. Mormons went home to Trump. He won more of the Muslim vote. He won more White women. He won 3% more of the Jewish vote. Donald Trump doubled his share of the LGBTQ vote.
Why did he lose then?
The party of the multiracial, multiethnic working class lost the working class in a landslide while winning the upper middle class in a landslide. So much for “National Populism.”
The coalition that Trump lost with in 2020 wasn’t the coalition that he won the White House with in the 2016 election. Donald Trump’s 2020 coalition was much more racially diverse, upscale, gayer, conservative and Republican. Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign pulled in far more downscale White male Independents, populists, moderates and college educated voters who live in the middle suburbs. The Independent vote which was pro-Trump dropped from 31% of the electorate in 2016 to 26% in 2020.
Donald Trump 2020
Independents – 52% Biden, 46% Trump
Independents – 49% Biden, 44% Trump
Independents – 55% Biden, 41% Trump
Independents – 51% Biden, 43% Trump
Independents – 51% Biden, 43% Trump
Independents – 54% Biden, 41% Trump
Independents – 57% Biden, 34% Trump
Independents – 61% Biden, 35% Trump
Independents – 54% Biden, 43% Trump
Independents – 53% Biden, 44% Trump
Independents – 47% Biden, 43% Trump
Independents – 51% Biden, 45% Trump
Independents – 54% Biden, 42% Trump
Donald Trump 2016
Independents – 51% Trump, 37% Hillary
Independents – 53% Trump, 37% Hillary
Independents – 50% Trump, 40% Hillary
Independents – 52% Trump, 36% Hillary
Independents – 48% Trump, 41% Hillary
Independents – 44% Trump, 42% Hillary
Independents – 46% Hillary, 41% Trump
Independents – 45% Trump, 45% Hillary
Independents – 47% Trump, 44% Hillary
Independents – 52% Trump, 41% Hillary
Independents – 50% Trump, 37% Hillary
Independents – 52% Trump, 38% Hillary
Independents – 47% Trump, 43% Hillary
In all the swing states, Trump lost White Independent voters and performed more poorly with Moderates. He also consistently performed better with conservatives and Republicans. The glaring pattern in every swing state is Trump losing ground in the middle with White male Indies and trying to replace them with more conservatives, Republicans, Hispanics, Based Blacks or new White working class voters.
In response to this colossal failure, Robert Hampton offers at Counter-Currents what I call the seven copes.
Cope #1. The election was rigged against Donald Trump.
This is transparently false.
If the election was rigged against Trump, then it was rigged nationwide because his 2016 margin over Hillary diminished everywhere except in a handful of states. Donald Trump also performed better with non-Whites. Black turnout wasn’t impressive in Detroit, Milwaukee or Philadelphia. Hispanics in Phoenix and Miami also trended toward Trump. He decisively lost the election in places like the Atlanta suburbs, Phoenix, the Philadelphia suburbs, the Milwaukee suburbs, suburban Detroit, etc.
Cope #2. Actually, Donald Trump won more of the White vote in 2020.
In the 2016 election, the electorate was 71% White and Trump won 57% of the White vote and 66% of Whites without a college degree. In the 2020 election, the electorate was 67% White and Trump won 58% of the White vote. He won 81% of conservatives in 2016 and 85% in 2020. He won 88% of Republicans in 2016 and 94% of Republicans in 2020. Mitt Romney won 59% of the White vote, 82% of conservatives and 93% of Republicans. Trump won the 2016 election with fewer conservatives and fewer Republicans because he was stronger in the Center of the electorate with Independents and Moderates. The major shift is that he won Independents by 4 in 2016 and lost by 13 in 2020. Basically, he lost Independents and Moderates and tried to make up ground with Republicans.
Cope #3. Actually, it was Gary Johnson voters and Jill Stein voters who went to Joe Biden.
In the 2016 election, Gary Johnson won 4,489,233 votes and Jill Stein won 1,457,216 votes. In the 2020 election, the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgenson won 1,835,058 votes and the Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins won 383,943 votes. The difference between 2016 and 2020 is 2,654,175 votes for the Libertarian and 1,073,273. Even if we assume all 3,727,448 of those third party votes went to Joe Biden, it doesn’t explain how Joe Biden got 14 million more votes than Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump also got 10 million more votes than he did in 2016. Democrat and Republican turnout was higher.
In Arizona, for example, Gary Johnson won 106,327 votes and Jill Stein won 34,345. Jo Jorgenson won 51,465 votes. Assuming all 89,207 of those net third party votes went to Joe Biden, he is still pulling over 500,000 more votes out of Arizona. Trump has gone from a 3 point win with Independents to an 11 point loss.
Cope #4. It was affluent, college-educated suburbanites who flipped to Joe Biden.
In the 2020 election, Donald Trump won voters making over $100,000 a year, 54% to 42%. In 2016, he split them with Hillary in 2016, 47% to 47%. He won more wealthy White voters who liked to hold their little Trump 2020 boat parades. He won more conservatives. He won far more Republicans.
In some states, the upper middle class flipped to Joe Biden. In Georgia, he won the upper middle class, 53% to 46%. In Michigan, Trump won the upper middle class, 54% to 43%. In Wisconsin, Trump won the upper middle class, 55% to 44%. In Pennsylvania, he won the upper middle class, 50% to 49%. In Iowa, Trump won the upper middle class, 56% to 42%. In Virginia, he won the upper middle class, 53% to 46%. Nationwide, the wealthy and the upper middle class swung 7 points toward Trump.
Cope #5. It was college-educated shitlibs who voted for Trump in 2016 who soured on him because of “racism” in 2020.
Does this make any sense?
The Democrat narrative on “white supremacy” fell flat with blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Jews, LGBTs and White women, but persuaded college-educated White men to vote for Joe Biden in 2020. It seems unlikely to me. I think there is something else going on here. The biggest part of it is undoubtedly the fact that Blumpf is broadly perceived as an incompetent buffoon by college-educated voters even on this website. It seems that college-educated voters, but not necessarily wealthy voters, turned against him. Part of it is undoubtedly due to COVID. Another part of is due to the endless chaos and disorder of his administration and people drawing the conclusion that the costs of Trump outweighed the benefits.
Cope #6. The “Real Right” supports tough immigration restriction, non-intervention and making fun of John McCain.
According to the Pew Research Center, we know exactly who supports those issues. It is the “Disaffected” or “Hard-Pressed Skeptics” or “Market Skeptic Republicans.” Those people are Independent voters in the Center of the electorate. It is the “Business Conservatives” or “Core Conservatives” – the conservative liberals – who oppose these things. They are pro-immigration, globalist on foreign policy, free traders who are cucked on race to the point of hopelessness. They are the traditional Republicans like Ben Shapiro who warmed to Trump in 2020 after pearl clutching in the 2016 election.
Cope #7. The 5% narrative isn’t true.
Yes, it is.
In Georgia, for example, we now know on the basis of voter history that there was a 5 point blue swing from Obama-Trump voters to Joe Biden. Of all the states where his decline with White college educated men and wealthy suburbanites hurt Trump the most, it was Georgia. If the Obama-Trump voters flipping back to Joe Biden were decisive there, what happened elsewhere?
The 2020 electoral map looks familiar:
The result in Florida is due to Hispanic voters.
The result in Arizona is due to White working class voters.
Everywhere else and particularly across the White Belt from Minnesota to Maine where Donald Trump overperformed Mitt Romney in 2016 we see a reversion to the pre-2016 status quo. The White electorate is less conservative in these states. There are more moderates, populists and Independent voters. The election was whiter in this area than it was in the 2016 election. So it wasn’t changing racial demographics.
The headline result of this election is that White Independent men who make less than $100,000 a year and who are concentrated in the middle suburbs shifted toward Joe Biden.
This is also exactly the result that you would expect too if race conscious Whites soured on him. He desperately tried to fill in that hole in his 2016 coalition by turning out more conservatives (81% to 85%) and Republicans (88% to 94%) or new White working class voters in the electorate.
It could reflect a judgment on the Trump administration. In spite of the claims of paleocons LARPing as “National Populists,” the Trump presidency actually wasn’t that impressive on race, culture, immigration, trade or foreign policy. It wasn’t impressive on free speech, monuments, law and order, strong leadership and other issues this constituency is known to care about. My bet though is that it reflects above all else a judgment on Trump’s economic record – his bailouts for Wall Street and endless stock market cheerleading in the context of the COVID economic crash. These people were already notoriously financially strapped and that was before 2020 when he was campaigning with Ricky Rebel and Lil Pump/Pimp on the Platinum Plan. They looked at this guy and didn’t see much racism or populism. The message that he sent to that constituency was that he doesn’t give a f*** about them.
Populist voters are under no obligation to prop up MIGApedes and mainstream conservatism. Independent voters are also not mainstream conservative Republicans. Calling Charlie Kirk and mainstream conservatism pretty words like “nationalism” or “populism” for chumps will believe it doesn’t make it so. Donald Trump and the Republican Party don’t give a shit about changing demographics except for maybe in Israel where their mind has been on “winning” for their donors for the last four years.
If the GOP wants our political support, then it can start representing us and change its True Cons message and policy agenda. And if not, it can get used to President Joe Biden.
UPDATE: In Alabama, Trump managed to lose Indies to Joe Biden while winning 97% of Republicans. In Kentucky, he went from winning Indies by 34 points to 14 points. In Alaska, Joe Biden performed better than any Democrat since 1964.