Presidential speech audiences have become increasingly partisan, according to decades of @CBSNewsPoll data…— Kabir Khanna (@kabir_here) April 29, 2021
Obama 2009: D+12
Trump 2017: R+16
Biden 2021: D+36
(For example, among self-reported watchers of Obama's first address to Congress, 38% were Ds and 26% Rs ?? D+12)
It was extremely boring.
Now that Joe Biden’s first 100 days are over, he is moving from the easy part to the hard part. The road ahead is about to get a lot rougher for Joe Biden.
- It was easy to be sworn into office after the peak of COVID and to distribute the vaccine which had already been created and take credit for it
- It was easy to use budget reconciliation to pass the American Jobs Plan and deliver $1,400 checks
- It was easy to arrive in office and sign a blitzkrieg of executive orders
What comes next?
- As COVID fades as an issue, we are seeing other far more divisive issues like immigration and crime rising in salience
- The unwillingness of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to part ways with the filibuster is an insurmountable roadblock in the Senate to most of the Democrat agenda
- How will the Democrats ultimately fund the American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan? Will they actually tax the wealthy or will these big plans crash on the shoals of roadblocks like the SALT Caucus? Will wealthy suburbanites go along with tax hikes?
- Will the Democrats even be able to stick together to pass the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan? If so, what will those plans look like when they emerge as legislation from Congress given what we have already seen with the corporate tax rate?
- Is this widely anticipated economic boom which is the conventional wisdom in Washington really a sure thing in late 2021 and 2022?
- Will those executive orders hold up when challenged in federal court?
- In light of the ongoing War on the Police, what will crime season look like this summer?
- What is going to happen with gas prices, electricity prices and food prices due to Joe Biden’s spending and climate change policies? $6 trillion in spending is a lot of money, right? Are we really going to cover that by raising taxes?
- Will there be any surprises on the foreign policy front by the 2022 midterms?
- Will the culture war flare up and intensify over any number of issues? The latest Gallup poll suggests the economy is receding as an issue and racism and immigration are advancing
Trump was blindsided and drowned by COVID which torpedoed his reelection strategy. Could something similar happen to Joe Biden and the Democrats?