Jewish Power: Campaign Contributions II

Guy White has responded to my last post and continues to insist that it is “mathematically impossible” for Jews to contribute 60% of campaign contributions to the Democratic Party and 20% to 35% of contributions to the Republican Party. In my previous post, I showed how he fudged the numbers by relying on the CRP 5.3 billion dollar estimate which didn’t match the official FEC number of 1.5. billion. This fatal oversight ended up wrecking his statistics. Logging on this afternoon, I wasn’t in the least bit surprised to find more of the same.

5,000% More

Guy White claims the average Jew would have to donate 5000% more than the average Gentile just to be even. In 2008, the Democrats raised $763,000,000 in total contributions. If Jews are responsible for 60% of donations, their share is $457,800,000. The Gentile share would be $305,200,000. There are 5.3 million American Jews and 300 million American Gentiles. Running the numbers, the average Jew would contribute $86 to the Democrats and the average Gentile $1.01.

$86/$1.01 = 85x more likely to contribute to the Democratic Party.

In 2008, the Republicans raised $792.9 million dollars. If Jews are responsible for 30% of donations, the Jewish share is $237,870,000. The Gentile share would be $555,030,000. Running the numbers, the average Jew would contribute $44.88 to the Republicans and the average Gentile $1.85.

$44.88/$1.85 = 24.3x more likely to contribute to the Republican Party.

The average Jewish household income is $54,000 per year. According to Guy White, 32% of Jewish households make over $100,000 per year. In 2008, the FEC records show that $428,051,148 was raised in under $200 campaign contributions. A mathematical impossibility?

The 2009 Numbers

I had to read his latest post three times to realize his error. Guy White isn’t in the habit of presenting his material in an organized manner. He has a rambling writing style. It is only at the very end of the second section that he informs his readers that his numbers and the statistics based upon them are for an off election year. I would bet a decent sum of money that he added those last three sentences after reviewing a finished post. (Update: I see now that a disclaimer has been added at the end of the first section).

In November 2009, there are only a handful of elections. There are 2 special elections for the House of Representatives, 2 gubernatorial races and 2 state legislative elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and a handful of mayoral elections in a few major cities. The vast majority of state and congressional races are slated for 2010. We’re still over a year away and most of the campaigns haven’t even been announced yet.

Guy White is relying upon more CRP numbers for the 2009/2010 election cycle. The first observation we can make is that the federal and state elections next week have nothing to do with these figures. The second observation (the crucial one) is that G.W. is drawing ridiculous conclusions from an incomplete data set. Fundraising for state and congressional races will continue to go on well into 2010 and the CRP will update these statistics at regular intervals. The numbers available now are preliminary.

So, with that in mind, let us crunch his numbers:

– 0.09% of Americans donate $200+ in 2009.
– 37,508 gave $2,300.
– Half of them donated $1,354. That’s under 135,000 people.
– 99 Americans gave $75,000 or more.
– 36 Americans gave $100,000 or more.
– $365.5 million was raised in 2009 from donations above $200.

We’re still early in the 2009/2010 election cycle. Most campaign contributions haven’t been made yet.

– 32% of Jews earn $100,000 or more.
– Among all Americans, 20% earn $100k+.

This is true. It is important to note though that these figures refer to “households.” The Census defines a “household” as “all the people of all the people who occupy a housing unit.” This includes family and non-family members. A “household” could also refer to a single person living alone.

This means that 2.9% of the people earning above $100k are Jewish and 97.1% are Gentile.

Let’s take him literally: 32% of Jews = 1,696,000. 20% of Americans = 61,000,000. 1.69 million/61 million = 2.8%  The figure is inaccurate because G.W. is assuming that every American, Jewish or Gentile, is his/her own household. In the U.S., there are 2.9 million Jewish households, not 5.3 million.

Before moving further, we should settle where campaign contributions (in particular, itemized donations) come from. So far, we have talked a lot about the “average Jew” and “average Gentile” and the “average size” of their contributions. This obscures the fact that campaign finance is still overwhelmingly a rich man’s game.

The Center has identified more than 1 million individuals who have made a contribution of more than $200 to federal candidates, parties and PACs, close to the 1.1 million individuals who showed up in FEC records in 2004. The total for 2008 (and for 2004, for that matter) is far higher, however, as only contributors giving more than $200 must be disclosed by name to the FEC. In 2008, the number of itemized individuals still represents less than one-half of one percent of all adult Americans. Analysts have estimated that, historically, no more than 4 percent of Americans make a contribution of any size to federal politics. By comparison, about 10 percent of American taxpayers elect to dedicate $3 of their annual tax bill to the presidential public financing system.

“Many new donors have been brought into the fold in 2008, but participation in this element of our democracy isn’t representative of the electorate or the nation as a whole,” Krumholz said. “The typical campaign contributor showing up in government data is still typically a lawyer, a Wall Street banker, a doctor, a CEO or a college professor at a major university. For all their influence at the polls, guys like Joe the Plumber aren’t typically campaign contributors. You’re more likely to see John the Bond Trader bankrolling these campaigns.”

Historically speaking, only 4% of Americans make any financial contribution to political candidates for federal office. In 2008, 0.5% of Americans were responsible for all itemized contributions over $200, or $901,213,602, which is 60% of the total. That is roughly 1,525,500 individuals making an average donation of $983. These people are overwhelmingly drawn from the idle rich and professional class.

Jews are almost 50% of America’s billionaires and approximately 20% of millionaires and above. They are close to 40% of the wealthiest Americans. They are 40% of the partners at elite law firms. Jews are 50% of the most influential bankers, publishers, and media moguls. They control Hollywood. More than 60% of all employed Jews are in one of the three highest status job categories: professional or technical (41%), management and executive (13%) and business and finance (7%).” As the wealthiest ethnic group in America, the Jewish demographic profile is the closest match to the typical campaign contributor.

G.W.’s Calculations

Scenario #1

20% x .6 = 12%.
12% + 20% = 32%

Jews are 60% more likely than Gentiles to earn over $100,000 per year.

.009% x .6 = .0054%
.0054% + .009% = .0144%

If Jews are 60% more likely than Gentiles to donate, and .09% of Americans contribute over $200, .0144% of Jews make campaign contributions.

5.3 million x .00144 = 7,632 Jews

There are 7,632 Jewish contributors.

366,366,00/2 = 183,168,000

If the Jewish share of 2009 contributions is 50%, then Jews have contributed $183,168,000 in the 2009 election cycle.

$183,168,000/7,632 Jewish contributions = $24,000

The average Jewish contribution is $24,000.

$183,168,000/278,370 Gentile contributors = $658

The average Gentile contribution is $658.

$658 x 36.47 = $23,977
$23,977 + $658 = $24,655

Jews give 3,647% more than the average Gentile donor.

.09% x 1.60 = 0.144%
.144% + .09% = .234%

Scenario #2

If Jews are 160% more likely than Gentiles to contribute, and .09% of Americans contribute over $200, .234% of Jews make campaign contributions.

5.3 million x .00234 =  12,402 Jews

There are 12,402 Jewish contributors.

$183,168,000/12,402 Jewish contributions = $14,769

The average Jewish contribution is $14,769.

Scenario #3

If Jews are 260% more likely than Gentiles to contribute, and .09% of Americans contribute over $200, .324% of Jews make campaign contributions.

5.3 million x .00324 = 17,172 Jews.

$183,168,000/17,172 Jewish contributions = $10,666

The average Jewish contribution is $10,666.

Critique

If Jews are 50% of billionaires, 40% of the wealthiest Americans, 20% of millionaires, and 2.8% of Americans earning more than $100,000 per year, is it plausible that Jews are only 2.8%, 4.6%, and 6.3% of donors (Jewish contributors/total contributors) in Guy White’s three scenarios?

Is it plausible that less than .5% of Jews (.144%, .234%, .324%) have donated over $200 in the 2009/2010 election cycle? From anecdotal experience, this doesn’t seem right. The Jewish community is renowned for its electoral enthusiasm. The problem is that G.W. is using the entire American population instead of the top 1% as his baseline.

According to CNN, there are 7.5 million millionaires in America. If Jews are 20% of millionaires, then 1.5 million Jews are worth over a million dollars, which is 28% of American Jews. Jews are 20% of millionaires. 2% of Gentiles earn over a million. Thus, Jews are 900% more likely to be millionaires than Gentiles.

If 5% of Jewish millionaires have contributed over $200 in the 2009/2010 election cycle, then there are 75,000 Jewish contributors, a more respectable 28% of total contributors. Suppose that 60% of itemized Democratic campaign contributions are from Jews; 30% of itemized Republican campaign contributions.

$171.6 million x .6 = $102,960,000
$110.5 million x .3 = $33,150,000
$102,960,000 + $33,150,000 = $136,110,000 in Jewish contributions
$136,110,000/$365,500,000 = 37% of total contributions
$136,100,000/75,000 Jewish contributors = $1,816 average Jewish contribution.

85% of contributors in the 2009/2010 election cycle donated $200 to $2,299. Far from being a “mathematical impossibility,” wealthy Jews donating 37% of total contributions is easily doable.

So far, 99 individuals have donated +$75,000 this year. By my count, 36 of them have Jewish sounding surnames. This is much closer to 37% of total contributions. If Guy White is right, we should expect only 3 to 6 Jews on the list of the 99 top contributors.

The 2008 Numbers

Guy White is still relying upon the discredited CRP estimate of $5.3 billion. The definitive FEC numbers show that 1.5 billion was spent on federal elections. His own link shows the CRP numbers are only for federal contests.

– In 2008, less than 0.5% of adult Americans made itemized contributions to either political party. The majority of contributions come from the top 1% of households (annual income of +$500,000). Jews are 900% more likely than Gentiles to be millionaires.

– In 2008, Jewish donors were responsible for more than 50% of Democratic campaign contributions.

– If Jews were 60% of donors to the Democratic Party, their share was $457.9 million, which is 30.5% of the total 1.5 billion spent.

– If Jews were 30% of donors to the Republican Party, their share was $237.9 million, which is 15.9% of the total 1.5 billion spent.

– Jews contributed $659,800,000 to both parties which is 46.4% of total contributions.

– In 2008, both political parties raised $901,213,602 in itemized contributions, which was 60% of total contributions.

– In 2008, 40% of contributions were non-itemized, or under $200.

– If 5% of Jewish millionaires donated over $200, there were again 75,000 Jewish contributors. $457.9 million/75,000 Jewish contributors = $6,105 Democratic Jewish average donation. $237.9 million/75,000 = $3,172 Republican Jewish average donation.

– $659.8 million/5.3 million Jews = $124.49 average Jewish donation. If all Jews were donors, which they are not.

Conclusion

Guy White is wrong. Wealthy Jews can easily afford to contribute 46.4% of total campaign contributions. As I have shown, it is not “mathematically impossible.” All it requires is 5% of Jewish millionaires giving a few thousand dollars to the Democrats and Republicans in each election cycle. In 2008, every Jew would have had to contribute $124.49.

It is worth reiterating that no one but Guy White denies these figures. They are acknowledged by Jewish scholars (Ginsberg, Goldberg, Feingold) in their books on Jewish power. They are cited in the mainstream American press (Washington Post) and by Jewish newspapers (Jerusalem Post). They are not disputed by any major American Jewish organization which have a vested interest in fighting “anti-Semitism.” Either Guy White is wrong or the academic specialists are wrong and the Jewish defense orgs are incompetent. There is no third option.

Which is more likely?