NewsOne is getting a big head.
#BlackTwitter is exulting with glee that the death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of Barack Hussein Obama will save Black Run America and prove to be a mortal blow to Donald Trump and the Birther movement.
There has been a peculiarly black reaction to the death of Osama bin Laden. White people are reacting to Osama bin Laden’s death by purging themselves of the fear of the Islamic boogeyman who has haunted their imaginations for a decade. Black people are interpreting Osama’s death as a victory for the Black Run America system.
A few observations:
(1) Black people are less intelligent and more emotional than Whites and this is reflected in the substandard analysis of the black punditry.
(2) Black people assume that White people are reacting to the death of Osama bin Laden in the same way (i.e., this is a victory for a Black World) when that is not the case at all.
White people see the death of Osama bin Laden as a victory for the CIA, Navy Seals, “the troops” and “our heroes” who made all the important sacrifices. This was a military operation years in the making. The military brass had been pushing it on Obama for several months.
(3) Black people are unable to see that Barack Obama has only succeeded in removing one major figure – the boogeyman – from the national political chessboard leading up to the 2012 elections.
(4) Black people desperately want to believe that the death of Osama bin Laden will reconcile White people to Black Run America who have no racial interest in the preservation of that system.
In the short term, Barack Obama will get a bump in the polls. In the long term, Barack Obama faces an altered political landscape where the attention of White voters is even more focused on domestic issues like the economy.
Remember, White voters judge their leaders by what they can do for them, not by what they have already done for them. Obama defeated McCain in 2008 because White America was sold on the idea that Barack Obama could fix the economy and bridge the racial divide.
In the post-Osama world, the Islamic boogeyman is gone, but sky high gas prices, chronic unemployment, the soaring national debt, and White anxiety over social and economic downward mobility are all still “out there.”
Let’s examine NewsOne’s bulletproof argument that Obama will win reelection in 2012:
(1) Obama killed Osama – The 2012 election won’t be about Osama bin Laden. Now it is almost certain to be about the economy and social issues because White voters won’t be distracted by “national security” issues as they were in 2004.
(2) The GOP doesn’t have their candidate – Actually, the field of potential candidates will dramatically narrow as foreign policy becomes less of a pressing issue.
The 2008 election was largely a verdict on the Iraq War. The so-called “three pillars” of the conservative stool were divided because social, economic, and “national security” conservatives were unable to unify behind a candidate.
Now that Osama bin Laden is dead, the eventual Republican candidate will almost certainly be whoever can position himself as the most persuasive “Mr. Fix It” economic candidate who can harness populist outrage over social issues.
We are not saying that is a good thing. It is just a likely projection.
(3) The economy is looking up – No one in White America believes this.
White voters overwhelmingly believe the economy is getting worse, not better. It might be getting better in the Beltway, but that is a bad thing in Dixie, Heartland, and Foundry.
What’s more, even in the states where the economy is not so bad, energy intensive states like Wyoming and North Dakota, Barack Obama and Black Run America have suffered a massive decline in popularity.
(4) They got no way to win PAM voters – The Republican candidate isn’t going to win California, Illinois, or New York anyway. It doesn’t matter how many blacks or Hispanics live in those states.
Alternatively, the Republican candidate has a much better shot now at winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin due to black flight from the Midwest and White anger over high gas prices.
Blacks are moving to the South where Whites are relatively more racially conservative. They have moved to Georgia in droves where the Democratic Party was virtually annihilated in the 2010 midterm elections.
Blacks have less clout, not more.
(5) The Republicans must field a candidate that will make peace with a younger, more multicultural America – Just the opposite is true.
Young people have never voted at the same rate as elderly people. There are more elderly White people who are pissed off about the direction of the country. That is why the 2010 midterm election was such a huge setback for the Democratic Party.
The news for Black Run America gets even worse when you consider the rapidly consolidating White electorate:
The rest of the white electorate remains deeply cool to Obama, the Pew survey found. Just 38 percent of college-educated white men said they approve of the president. That’s down from the 42 percent of the vote he won from those men in 2008, and only a slight improvement from the miniscule 35 percent House Democrats won with them in 2010.
Obama’s approval rating in the Pew survey stood at just 34 percent among white women without a college education-the so-called waitress moms. Democrats have often had high hopes for capturing those economically-strained, culturally-conservative women, but the new result only underscores their consistent Republican tilt: Obama won just 41 percent of them in 2008, and House Democrats just 34 percent of them in 2010.
The toughest group for Obama remains white men without a college-education-the blue-collar workers who constituted the foundation of the Democratic electoral coalition from 1932 to 1968. Just 35 percent of them said they approve of his performance in the Pew poll. That’s below even the 39 percent of them Obama carried in 2008, though slightly above the Democrats’ microscopic 32 percent showing with them in 2010, according to the exit poll. All of these results suggest that the gap between Obama’s support among college-educated white women and non-college white men-which stood at a formidable 13 percentage points in 2008-might easily widen even further in 2012.
Looking at the white electorate by age shows fewer fissures — but one bright red flag for the president. In the Pew survey, Obama’s approval rating among white seniors stands at just 38 percent; he draws just 35 percent approval from those aged 50-64 and 40 percent from those 30-49. Generally, that’s slightly, but not markedly, below his support from those groups in 2008.
Perhaps the most ominous trend for Obama in the Pew survey is that just 41 percent of whites under 30 said they approved of his performance; in 2008, he won 54 percent of those younger whites. In the 2010 exit poll, Democrats’ support among those whites sagged to 45 percent, but even that remained much higher than their backing among older whites.
Multicultural triumphalists have always claimed that White Gen X’ers and White Millennials would save Black Run America. According to this theory, when all those prejudiced, reactionary, conservative elderly White people die off, America will finally emerge as a tolerant, multicultural paradise.
This argument suffers from the huge flaw that it was the “Greatest Generation” and the “Baby Boomers” who created Black Run America in the first place. No one was more supportive of BRA than the hippie generation who grew up on the counter-culture.
The latest polls show that White Gen X’ers and White Millennials have turned more sharply against Barack Obama than any other White demographic. In fact, opposition to Barack Obama now unifies every subgroup of the White electorate with the exception of college educated White women, a majority of whom still voted against him in 2008.
White America has over a year to enjoy Barack Obama’s stewardship of the economy before the 2012 election. In that time, one of two things will almost certainly happen:
(1) Gas prices will rise to record levels.
(2) Gas prices will choke the economy into another recession.
Either way, Barack Obama will be judged in 2012 on the basis of his response to White anxiety over the economy, not on the death of Osama bin Laden. The death of the boogeyman and continued instability in the Middle East only makes it more likely that the economy will be the major issue.
NewsOne is setting itself up for a disappointment.
Discussion Question: What happens to Black Run America on “The Day The EBT Card Stops Working?”