Here are the key findings of the first USA Today/Gallup Poll of the 2012 battleground states:
– By nearly 4 to 1, voters aren’t satisfied with the direction of the country.
– By 60 percent to 37 percent, voters say they aren’t better off than they were three years ago.
– By more than 2 to 1, Republicans are more likely to say they are “extremely enthusiastic” about voting in the 2012 election.
– By more than 3 to 1, non-Whites in the swing states say they will vote for Obama over Romney.
– By 51 percent to 38 percent, voters in the swing states disapprove of Obamacare.
– Obama is hovering somewhere near a 33 percent approval rating with White voters.
– Obama has a 40 percent approval rating in the swing states.
– If that were not bad enough for Obama, the Republican state legislatures have enacted sweeping changes in election laws, which will suppress black and Hispanic turnout in key swing states like Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.
The Democratic media is putting on a brave face in public, but they are looking at these numbers and have to know that it would be unprecedented for Obama to win reelection with that level of White disillusionment in the Heartland.
One last thing: there is also that European financial crisis which will undoubtedly cause the shit to the fan on Wall Street between now and November 2012. What happens to the “Arab Spring” between now and then? Is democracy going to emerge in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya when the troops are withdrawn?
At the rate things are going, Bugs Bunny could beat Obama.
HW writes:
“At the rate things are going, Bugs Bunny could beat Obama.”
JR responds:
Maybe Bugs Bonny would do well, but will an 80 year old White libertarian, hard money purist GOP nominee be able to beat Obama ?
Or will a Black Republican – Cain do better than Black Conservative Republican Alan Keyes did against Obama in the Illinois US Senate race?
Will Religious Right Evangelical Protestant Christian voters throw all kinds of tantrums that the GOP candidate isn’t 100% pro life or is from some church that they don’t recognize as “Christian” – writing off all blue collar Catholic voters in the North East?
Will Constitutionalist patriots insist on running some sincere old patriot on a 3rd party ticket and go forth with the ida that they and only they know THE TRUTH that WILL SAVE AMERICA?
White Americans act like fools in US Presidential elections – that’s why my former Chicago neighbor, Illinois state representative and Black Liberation theology supporter Barack Obama was elected President of the United States. We’ll see if history repeats itself. In particular what for these libertarian/Constitutionalist true believers to act like the worst fools this time around.
Well, the Republicans better get it this time, because with our rapidly changing demographics, it may well be the last best chance they have to do so. As non-whites are largely tax users rather than payers, they always vote for who will give them more of taxpayers’ money. Soon, more states will go the way of California and NY, and be forever out of play for Repubs. Really, beyond say, 2016, I don’t see how the Repubs win another presidential election until minorities who are net tax contributors exceed minorities who are net tax consumers, and that, I suspect is a ways out. In other words, until there are too few qualified Whites and Asians to fill the good paying jobs, blacks and Mestizos will still be on the outside looking in (net tax consumers). As there are fewer and fewer whites to fill the positions, more Mestizos will begin to fill them, and thus, have a stake in not voting for Dems, who will always simply transfer wealth to the non-productive. But there’ll be around a 20 year period where there’ll still be enough whites around to keep Mestizos in the lower earning tiers where I can see Democrats winning around 4 or 5 Presidential races in a row, during which time the white tax payer will be squeezed for everything he’s worth. Not good times.
To further flesh that out… What now seem like strictly racial voting patterns (excluding whites) will still primarily be about tax payers vs tax consumers, but more minorities will eventually end up being tax payers, as fewer whites are available to fill the better paying jobs, so it’ll seem less like such a stark racial divide in voting patterns. Of course, as the country transitions from white to NAM, there’ll be fewer well paying jobs to be had for any of us anyway.
The last 3rd Party candidate to win actual electoral votes was George Wallace in 1968.
It speaks to how completely LBJ & Humphrey were repudiated that even with Wallace winning the Deep South electoral votes (he won 5 states), Nixon still garnered enough electoral votes, 301, to win the election outright, and not have it thrown into the House, which is what happens if there is not simple majority of electoral votes.
See the map.
The popular vote between Nixon and Humphrey was very close, but the electoral college amplified the results into a anti-Humprey landslide.
I think it’s safe to say that there is no one of the stature of George Wallace who is likely to pull voters from the GOP. Ron Paul has his dedicated followers (Paulistas, or Ronulans as they are known on Free Republic) but if they can’t win a single state for him in the GOP primary process they aren’t going to win the state.
So, like Nader, Perot, John Anderson and the last 20 Libertarian and Constitutionalist candidates for President they will recieve no real votes.
Can they spoil in a close race, and turn what would have been a GOP victory into one for the Dems? Sure, it’s possible – but they way the numbers are looking most states are not going to be scary close toss-up states. Most states are going to be walk-aways for whoever the GOP nominee is.
As I’ve said before, if Ron Paul DOESN’T win the nomination, we BARRAGE THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. Paul, or NO DEAL.
I, for one, would vote Obama in to DESTROY this nation, than vote for ANYONE else. ESPECIALLY NIGGER CAIN.
This is our last hope. A president like Truman would be a damn sight better than another Kennedy cultist like Moron Romney.