CW2 In 2020?


More on Civil War 2:

“Circa 1870, the North fought the South in the Civil War. Half a century later, around 1920, worker unrest, racial tensions and anti-Communist sentiment caused another nationwide upsurge of violence. Then, 50 years later, the Vietnam War and Civil Rights Movement triggered a third peak in violent political, social and racial conflict. Fifty years after that will be 2020. If history continues to repeat itself, we can expect a violent upheaval in the United States in a few years.

It sounds like pseudoscience, but it’s a published theory. “My model suggests that the next [peak in violence] will be worse than the one in 1970 because demographic variables such as wages, standards of living and a number of measures of intra-elite confrontation are all much worse this time,” said Peter Turchin, an ecologist, evolutionary biologist and mathematician at the University of Connecticut.”

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  1. This sort of analysis is hogwash. One can always fit a theory to historical data, it’s called Monday morning quarterbacking.

    The particular “analysis” at that site is comprised of cherry-picked anecdotal events to manufacture the cycles. There are no hard numbers on violent deaths to justify his peaks and valleys. Just the fact that WWII is at a trough ought to tell you that something is way off in his analysis.

    Steven Pinker of Harvard has a new book out which demonstrates that in fact violence is actually in a downward trend and has been for centuries.

    I’m more a believer in “Black Swans”. Catastrophic events that no one predicted but come upon society in a totally unpredictable and random manner.

  2. It seem odd that Nazis were a reaction to the threat of communism, but the out come of WW2 resulted in the expansion of communism into eastern Europe, the Far East and South America, which lead to the Vietnam War, Cold War, etc.. And now we’re stuck with cultural Marxism.

  3. ” And now we’re stuck with cultural Marxism.”

    Well that part is “our fault”. We interfered in a war that was none of our business. We picked a side and upset the balance between fascism and communism.

  4. “Well that part is “our fault”. We interfered in a war that was none of our business.”

    Well it is our fault, but that’s not the reason: the reason is that we let YKW off their leash, which they had been put on for extremely good reasons. They did what they always do (see under: frog/scorpion) and now we are reaping the consequences. It won’t end well, it never does. You’d think after centuries of the exact same experience, over and over, (I mean, come on, centuries!) people woulda known better. Just goes to show.

  5. I don,t think, that cultural marxism lasts 8 more years. Economy does not survive so long and the end will come much sooner.

    About war. Some things are so discredited, that nobody will rise a gun to protect them. Occupy Wall Street was the left last attempt to launch the fight. War needs some great idea to die for. No unit will stand to last man only to keep gay bars open, flash mobs looting and muslim gangs raping.

    Marxism in western Europe and in the US will come down as pathetically as in the USSR 20 years ago. In the Soviet Civil war 1917- 1924 millions people fought on the red side. In the 1991 was only one man, who fought to the end. Soviet inferior minister Boris Pugo shot himself. Nobody else, even in KGB, Communist Party or army did,nt shoot a single shot to protect the communism. In other communist countries was the same. Only in Romania small gunfight between Securitate and army broke loose.

    So there will be great farce not a great war. Israel is be big question of course. When jewish rule and cultural marxism ends, dare they use the Samson Option or not?

  6. My guess is that municipal governments will re-segregate and partition from one another… and rid themselves of black (non tax base) concentrations. This will lead to conflict with federal laws.

    Then the fun starts as democracy is discredited, finally.

  7. Ironically, Russia doesn’t have cultural marxism …….

    Madonna to sing out on ‘gay propaganda’ law – Several Russian regions have passed bans on “promoting” homosexuality in public, prompting criticism.

    In March, St Petersburg – Russia’s second-biggest city – passed a controversial law banning “public actions aimed at propaganda of sodomy, lesbianism, bisexuality, [and] transgenderism amongst minors”.

    But, we see this constantly in the west.

    And,I guess, cultural Marxism is the main beef behind the Succession movement and potentially CW2. Also, Brevik’s concern was a European civil war between right and left.

  8. I agree with Juri, our “elite” is a farce. As MW puts it they now rule by soft control or taboo. That is just begging for trouble, since it basically takes one person to take a taboo down, and then they have hard control in an era where that depends on making sure Blubbo the Fed donut eater gets his pension payment.

  9. ‘The Fourth turning theory claims that Millennials are going to demand major changes and soon.’

    That and alot of Liberal Baby Boomers have one foot in the grave.

    Just on my one block their have been 3 estate sales in the last month!

    As a Conservative Libertarian Gen Xer ( ‘Republicans do better among Generation X’ ) I have wondered if perhaps the margin of victory or defeat for Obama will be measured in terms of dead Liberal Baby Boomers.

  10. Excellent remarks, Juri. I really hadn’t thought much about the Samson Option before.

    Is the end of Jewish hegemony/BRA is something they see coming?
    That might explain much of the shrillness we see in the leftist response to almost every event these days.

    When the Soviet Union fell, this was not as important a consideration, as they knew they had the West in thrall. The dynamic is different now.

    There are certainly some of their number that would not hesitate to “bring the whole house down.” They have deified their kind for so long, it seems almost inevitable that some would make the attempt, at least.

    Deo Vindice

  11. FYI:

    There is an article on letting the South secede. It was written by an apparent Northern liberal. It is surprisingly fair.

    Look for: Is it finally time to let the South secede.

  12. Good catch, Lew. What really convinced me of the viability of Southern Nationalism was the liberal response to the 2004 election, when the Northeastern liberals began to talk about secession. I purchased my copy of The Grey Book the very next day.

    Deo Vindice

  13. CCE: Thanks. Often I comment from my phone when I have a minute to spare and don’t have time to deal with links. Right now I’m waiting for a train to pass. God bless technology… You can either waste time or be productive anywhere …

  14. Y’all realize of course that you will still be stuck with the majority of the niggers when you secede? And no federal dollars coming in to finance those EBT cards.

  15. As long as we remain a captive people, it gives the lie to any quaint notions of “freedom” here in the empire.

    This may only be a variation of the old Yankee argument that “as long as any of us are not free, none of us are free,” often used to justify the violence against us.

    The WBTS was simply an exchange of slaveries, white for black. BRA is a form of white slavery, very much of a kind with the white slavery practiced by the old Ottoman Empire.

    I think I will begin to refer to our fellow Southerners who serve in the military as Janissaries. By this, I mean no disrespect, having been one myself.

    The Janissaries were brave and noble warriors, but in the final analysis they were simply whites slaves serving the interests of an alien empire.

    Deo Vindice

  16. Apuleus,

    I recently looked at the final Turk assault on Constantinople. The Turks used a wide range of Balkan Christians in the tunneling and assaults on the Greek city. Serbs, Croats, Hungarians, a few Germans.

    John Grant (a Scot) was the Greek emperor’s chief engineer. He had a small band of sappers and mercenaries with him. The Venetians, Genoans sent a few boats to the Golden Horn but the Catholic church inspite of wordist support seemed to be cackling
    about the demise of the City.

    White guys in the current military might as well be called Janisarries as anything else. They are fighting on behalf of gays, feminists, minorities who despise them, Israel, big oil…

    The Navy guys risk almost nothing in comparison, but they do at least keep commercial sea lanes free from piracy (which is a good for everyone)

    They (higher up officers) get their pensions and decorations in exchange for a
    I guess they are fighting for themselves on some level though relatively small risk of death.

  17. “More from Col Kevin Benson.”
    Thanks for keeping an eye on this cretin, Oculus.

    This thug is a not very charming combination of stupid and dangerous.
    Just another BRA gubmint tool.

    “What was the last book you finished? Gordon Rudd’s Reconstructing Iraq.”

    Reconstruction, eh? It wants to recreate perpetually the glory days of the Yankee empire, does it? Anybody here think we’re really out of Iraq yet? Guess again.

    Still trying to figure out how he thinks that people thirsting or starving to death in Somalia pose a threat to the interests of the Yankee empire.

    “If our national values are now equal to our national interests–ala intervention in Libya–we will certainly be conducting armed humanitarian interventions in areas where water distribution is an issue, water for irrigation is disrupted, and food is not made available to different minorities and ethnic groups. Think about rules of engagement in those situations!”

    The day the EBT card stops working is the day tools like this one and his fellow “iron major/lieutenant colonel” drones declare open season of whites who refuse to “share.”

    “In my view the reductions in defense spending were the root causes of the following increases because one party wanted to gain political advantage, or we were surprised by an enemy tactic.”

    The tool needs more money from the taxpayers. More, more, more…despite the fact that we already have the largest military by an order of magnitude over all other nations on the planet.

    I guess this is just the white version of “gibsmuhdat.”

    Deo Vindice

  18. Let’s make Pass Christian, Mississippi the Capital of “our” new nation — the Nation “we” Finally Deserve to have.

    It’s near the port of New Orleans, where we can import/export “our” slaves, and import opium and cocaine into the country. Then ship the heroin North up the Mississippi.

    Pass Christian is in the Very Heart of The Golden Circle.

    [Richmond was always so vulnerable to Yankee assailment ]

    Little Rock has such a bantam airport.
    [ Though, there’s gold in them thar hills, or so goes the legend of our GrandDaddies]

    Pass Christain is so much more proximate to Palm Beach, the West Indies, and Belem.

  19. You don’t need any pseudoscience to guess that just common sense would suggest a mass of troubles and soon. The 2006 baby boom was heavily Hispanic and Black (about 40 some percent) and they’ll hit late puberty in a climate with no work (for anyone really) and diminished resources for policing and incarceration.

  20. Can anyone link to an age and race demographic chart? The Goat in the Snake of an Hispanic or black baby boom would be interesting to see.

  21. “Part of it is the MIC looking for something to do to justify budgets and massive defense spending.”

    I really hope more people are getting as fed up as I am with all this “armed humanitarian intervention” saber rattling bullshit. But I’m not so sure. The “invade the world, invite the world” paradigm is deeply lodged in the Amurrican psyche.

    Go team USA!

    This latest iteration of “armed humanitarian interventions” all started with Bush I after the Cold War ended. First Panama , as part of the “War on Drugs,” then Iraq, to defend the kingdom of Kuwait (how democratic), and finally as a parting gift, Somalia, on behalf of the poor Somalis who proceeded to drag the mutilated bodies of our Janissaries through their streets.

    How much of your money do they need to “protect” you…

    ALL of it. They aim to get it, too.

    Deo Vindice

  22. @John
    Google : ” Walker + Costa Rica + Mangled Snakes + Walker + Hondurus + Dead Snakes” for more info.

  23. The Greeks are unusual in that they are one of the few Christian groups to have been submerged and reemerge from Islamic domination. Their saga from the first Arab assaults to the Norman/Frank sacking to the final Turkish assault and eventual rebirth In the 1820s is packed with drama and many ups n’ downs.

  24. @Lew and John and All Readers :
    Some more very “Good” and very “Interesting” search terms to use :

    ” Golden Circle + Slaves + Opium”
    ” Golden Circle + Spanish-American War ”
    ” Golden Circle + Walker”
    ” Teddy Roosevelt + The Golden Circle”
    ” Golden Circle + Texas + Mexican-American War”

    You and John can get a better idea as to why we have so many Hispanics in the country now.

    It’s good to know there’re other White Americans concerned about the topic of Hispanic demographics in the US, and a Big Reason how/why the Hispanics are here in the States in such large numbers :

    The above search terms will help Explain why there’re so many Hispanics in the USA.

  25. Not really much of a surprise to you, was it Bob?

    The more things change, the more they stay the same.

    Deo Vindice

  26. I believe cycles in human behavior are real. What’s that old saying,” History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme”. The “Fourth turning theory” series of books are good. Also the set of books by James Dale Davidson and Sir Rees-Mogg.
    People are stupid. They keep making the same mistakes over and over. Haven’t any of you done something your Dad said,” don’t do that Son” then after you did it anyways you realized he was right.
    Look at the Jews. They keep practicing the same demented spath behavior over and over. Maybe the internet providing a record of Jews spath behavior will help curb their degeneration or at least warn everyone else.

  27. Excellent point, Sam. I think it’s just part of being human, like the old Greek myth of Daedalus and Icarus. When you’re young you don’t realize the risks and even when you can see them you tend to discount them. Misfortunes only happen to other people. That will never happen to me, you think. And then…it hits you.

    Pride goeth before the fall.

    Deo Vindice

  28. The fourth turning by Strauss and Howe is 15 years older than this guys model and says the exact same thing. This actually sounds likeagiarism. the Russian kondrktiev did some great work along a similar vein at the turn of thest century about whole civilizations too.

  29. Apuleius says:
    August 10, 2012 at 11:17 pm
    “Excellent point, Sam. I think it’s just part of being human, like the old Greek myth of Daedalus and Icarus.”

    Apuleius, so you and everyone else knows, there are two posters named Sam here now apparently.
    I am the one who has discussed religious issues with you yesterday. I didn’t write the post about cycles in human behavior.

  30. Sam2 says:
    August 11, 2012 at 6:41 am
    Your right . 2 Sam’s. I’ll be Sam2 from now on if it suits you.


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