Gallup: Romney Leads Early Voting

33 Comments

1. Its easy Brutus, dems have better turnout for presidential elections than others. Every four years the rable rousers and electric Jew is reminding the human turds to Rawk teh vote while voting is for the civic minded the other three.

2. It probably has to do with how people perceive state and local versus national issues. Walker was obviously perceived as preferable to the alternative from the standpoint of Wisconsin Libs on Wisconsin’s local issues. The national agenda is different. Walker can’t declare war on Iran or repeal Obamacare. Romney can, or he can try to. There is precedent for these counter-intuitive splits. Governor Arnold was elected in California despite it being a blue stronghold for president. I don’t think there is any poll conspiracy against Romney here. We’ll see in a week.

3. The 2010 Tea Party wave election was unquestionably a referendum on Obama.

4. I’m curious to know the proportion of people surveyed in polls tell the truth and at what rates they do for their leanings.

   After a lifetime of media bias and Negros worship in every public institution, I’m quick to tell pollsters or marketers to fuck off. The flip side is that I envision every flabby hipster or aging hippie liberal douche to jump at the chance to tell a stranger how excited they are to vote for the magic Negro

5. Lew says:
   ‘I believe this is the main reason for assuming an electorate much like 2008. Scott Walker in blue-leaning Wisconsin was essentially elected twice over massive Demicrat opposition. Despite this, no one, I don’t think, is projecting Wisconsin for Romney. It’s unclear how much the off-year trends matter.’

   It’s interesting that in the 2008 Presidential election John McCain had approx. 1, 262,ooo votes cast for him in Wi. Walker in the 2012 recall received 1,334,ooo votes. A 72k increase . That tells me McCain was very lackluster. I’d bet the farm Romney will exceed John’s and Walker’s numbers by far.

   I just don’t believe Obama’s troops are inspired to do what they did in 2008.

   However, Obama beat McCain by 625,000 votes in Wi. 2008. That’s a huge number to overcome.

   Certainly Obama’s horrible record and the recall defeat must have demoralized the left to a degree. The Conservatives are smelling blood and are in a frenzy around here.

   I don’t have a crystal ball. I just have a gut feeling (barring voter fraud) Obama will go down in flames.

   Except for Madison and the Milwaukee area Tommy Thompson should draw a lot of votes from the rest of the state for his Senate run. He was a popular moderate/conservative Governor for 14 years, but is showing his age. His Dem. opponent is a radical lefty, wacko, lesbo liar. Should be a no-brainer, but Tammy Baldwin is collecting out of state fag money by the boat loads. She is running commercials everywhere non-stop. Thompson is getting deluged. They say he blew most of his money on the primary.
   She was actually ahead in polls, but Tommy has closed the gap recently.

6. Notable changes, 2008-2012:

   2012: +1 male, -1 female
   2012: White vote, unchanged
   2012: Nonwhite +1
   2012: Blacks -1
   2012: Hispanics +1

   Hold it right there … so much for “the Hispanic vote” compensating for O’s losses among the White vote, the Hispanic vote is projected to grow by a whopping 1 percent in 2012, whereas Hispanic enthusiasm for voting for Obama is down like 20 points, and O is way down with the White vote which is holding steady!

   2012: 18-29 year olds -1
   2012: 50-64 year olds +1
   2012: 65+ year olds +1

   Hold it right there … a lot of more elderly people are coming out to vote, elderly White people, who are breaking toward Romney, and fewer younger people, who are significantly down on Obama anyway.
   

   2012: Democrats -5
   2012: Independents -2
   2012: Republicans +7
   2012: Dem/Leaners -8
   2012: Rep/Leaners +7

   Hold it right there … we’ve gone from a D+12 electorate in 2008 to a likely R+3 electorate in 2012.

   

7. Gallup is projecting an R+3 electorate for 2012 … many of these state polls are assuming anywhere from a D+3 to a D+12 electorate on election day. The Gallup Poll also has a sample of 2700 likely voters which is the largest sample of any poll in the survey.

   http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

   Now combine that with the fact that Pew, which has the race tied at 47 to 47, is showing a massive turnout advantage for Republicans among likely voters … R+5 to R+14

   http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/
   http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/10/10-29-2012-2.png
   http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/10/10-29-2012-9.png

   Gallup shows above that Romney has a 52% to 45% lead among early voters.

8. The possiblities for 12, 16 and 20:

   Romney, Romney, RINO
   Romney, Romney, Democrat
   Romney, Hillary (you thought Obama was bad) Clinton, RINO
   Romney, Hillary, Democrat
   Romney, Hillary, Rand Paul
   Obama, Rand Paul ?
   Obama, RINO, ?

9. Should have been “another RINO” above.

10. http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/a-wide-electoralpopular-vote-split-wont-happen/

    So what about the state polls? If you look at most of the samples, they are more Democratic than the 2008 turnout model. It’s becoming clear that the early voting, which is disproportionately comprised of Democrats, is distorting the likely voter screens of most state polls. That’s why they are all showing a high D turnout, despite the ubiquitous enthusiasm gap. . . .

    If you reconstruct a turnout model that is only slightly more favorable for Republicans than 2008, Romney is ahead in most of the important states. Take this Gravis Marketing poll of Iowa, for example. They show Obama up 4 points, but the party ID is D +6 (D 41, R 35, I 24). In 2008, it was D +1 (D 34, R 33, I 33), and in 2004 it was R +2 (D 34, R 36, I 30). Here’s the kicker: the poll shows Romney leading by 12 among independents. Remember that of all swing states, Republicans improved their voter registration edge the most in Iowa. Additionally, there is a tremendous enthusiasm gap. Yet, if we merely reconstruct the 2008 turnout, which was evenly split among all three affiliations, a 12-point Indy win would clearly tip the state to Romney.

    We’re seeing the same thing with the latest ARG poll in Ohio. They have Obama up 49-47, yet Romney is winning Independents by a gargantuan 21 points. The sample is D+9, even though it was D+5 in 2008.

11. In other words, vote for Obama (holding your nose but hoping he wins), grit your teeth for four years and Rand Paul then has the chance in 16 that he wouldn’t have had if Romney had won.

12. Bad news for O in the Pew Poll: utterly no reason to assume a D+8 to D+12 turnout. Quite the opposite.

    http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/30/seven-takeaways-from-the-pew-poll/

    1. A Republican intensity gap: More than three-quarters (76 percent) of Republican and lean Republican voters said they are likely to vote on Nov. 6 as compared with 62 percent of Democrats and lean Democratic voters. That double-digit intensity gap should be concerning for Democrats as, typically, the side whose base is more energized usually winds up winning.

    5. An overblown gender gap focus?: In the Pew data Romneyis losing women by six points. If he keeps that margin on election day, Romney would lose the female vote by less than half the margin that John McCain lost them in 2008. (McCain lost women by 13 points.) In fact, if Romney fell short to Obama among women voters by just six points, it would be the narrowest loss for a Republican presidential candidate among females in more than 20 years. It’s worth noting that many other national surveys suggest a wider gender gap than Pew but as we have noted before, the idea that Romney is headed toward anything like a historically large loss among women voters simply isn’t born out by the data.

    6. Romney overperforming McCain among the young and the old: In 2008, McCain lost 18-29 year olds by 34 points to Obama. In the new Pew poll, Romney is trailing Obama by 21 points among that youngest demographic. On the other end of the age spectrum, McCain beat Obama by 8 points among voters 65 and older in 2008 but Romney is ahead by 19 points in the latest Pew data. Among 30-44 year olds, Obama is running six points ahead of Romney — exactly where he was in 2008 against McCain; same goes for voters age 45-64 among whom the two candidate are currently tied just as Obama and McCain wound up in 2008.

13. Could blueberry state Maine be a slice of Romney’s presidential pie?

    http://touch.chicagotribune.com/#story/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-mainebre89t09c-20121029/

14. Hunter,

    Could you take a look at my rough draft for my first full column on Vdare?

    I’ll send it to the email account I had for you.

    Thanks Hunter,

    John

15. O had the election in the bag until he blew it on national television in front of 67 million people who talked about it for two weeks.

    Actually, I think Romney was going to take him anyway. The first debate just really drove the point home. Romney was already seeing a surge before the first debate. America was ready to replace the mulatto, they just needed to see a viable alternative.

    @Landshark

    “What it needs is a weak black president.”

    – Why? And just who would that benefit?

    There’s definitely an argument to be made for gridlock. A weak Dem president who can’t negotiate to save his life and a Republican Congress is a pretty good formula for gridlock. If you look at what the founders did, they seem to have liked the idea of gridlock, to an extent.

    But I want 0bama gone for cultural reasons. The “one and done” will go perfectly with his hagiography.

    And the economy. Neither guy may be able to turn it around, but Romney’s easily the better bet on that score. No contest.

    I remain in shock from the entirely thoughtless manner in which Donald Trump was dismissed by the establishment lastweek. His gambit is brilliant but has fallen on deaf nigger loving ears.

    God bless Trump. I wanted him to STFU when I thought it was going to be something about the zero’s homosexuality, or his near-divorce from the wookie. But after he announced it, I thought it was a great idea. Who can ignore the fact that that nigger would rather keep 5 million dollars out of the hands of starving children than release his school records?

    Raise your hand if you’d rather keep your school records sealed than give 5 million to the charity of your choice. Some PAC should make an ad out of that.

    If memory serves, even Rasmussen assumes a D+3 advantage on election day, and Rasmussen has Obama losing the electoral college.

    I keep seeing D+4 but I don’t follow this stuff that closely so I could be wrong about that.

    The fact is, there is no reason to believe that Republicans will be nearly as demoralized as they were in 2008 (Republican registration this year has been tellingly higher month after month), or that Independents will be nearly as supportive of Obama (he is losing them by wide margins, in fact, ever since 2009), or that Democratic turnout will be anywhere near Obama’s 2008 performance when he was at the height of his popularity.

    Let’s sharpen that a bit: the Republicans are absolutely not as demoralized as they were in 2008. The Republicans are fired up. Their GOTV in Ohio is the best effort they’ve put forward there in a generation. They’re drawing bigger crowds than the Dems, in harder-to-reach venues. Indies are breaking heavily for Romney. Dem turnout shows every sign of a lower turnout this year than in 2008, by significant margins. And the Dems have jack shit to be fired up about, with a candidate without a shred of the bloom on their 2008 rose.

    “His reputation will suffer severe damage if he’s wrong. ”

    Oh please!

    These “Ivy League” academics have been dead ass wrong about EVERYTHING they have ever predicted and all their followers are still fellating them all through the decades. As far as their opposition is concerned, that would be everyone who is not a fanatical liberal, the Ivy Leaguer’s reputations cannot be damaged any more or sink any lower.

    Right. His rep will take a ding overall, but not with the core lefties, who will instead use his and Silver’s predictions and track records as evidence that Republicans stole the election.

    (Silvio) Silver says:

    Lol, I was wondering how you were holding up sharing a name with Nate Silver.

    The polls are oversampling Democrats to make up for Romney winning Independents by a much wider margin.

    I don’t think it’s deliberate bias. The battlegroundwatch.com guys have a pretty good explanation for this, too; bad polls are easy and cheap, and good polls are hard and expensive.

    I have more of a problem with the guys running these poll aggregators and averagers than I do with the guys making garbage polls; nobody forced the former to include the latter’s garbage.

    I’m glad you brought this up. Why is it that no one is projecting a Wisconsin win for Romney?

    GIGO; everyone’s got garbage in, so they put garbage back out. Lots of people who reject GIGO this year are predicting a Romney win in Wisconsin.

    It’s possible Obama will win, would not even be surprising. But it would be equally less surprising for a Romney win.

    My sentiments exactly. I see the left tail as a narrow 0bama win, the right tail as a Romney mini-landslide (as close as we’re likely to see to a landslide with this electorate; it ain’t 1980 anymore, and browns and blacks, sir, are no whites), and the middle of the curve as a comfortable Romney win.

    I don’t think there is any poll conspiracy against Romney here. We’ll see in a week.

    Neither do I, or many GIGO-rejecters, so this is basically a straw man you’re wrestling with.

    I’m curious to know the proportion of people surveyed in polls tell the truth and at what rates they do for their leanings.

    After a lifetime of media bias and Negros worship in every public institution, I’m quick to tell pollsters or marketers to fuck off. The flip side is that I envision every flabby hipster or aging hippie liberal douche to jump at the chance to tell a stranger how excited they are to vote for the magic Negro

    Goddamn, is this microphone on? Read the last two weeks of posts and comments at battlegroundwatch.com. They’ve been over and over this ad infinitum. YES, Dems respond to pollsters more than Reps do. This is part of what’s so hard to account for in polls, and why polling is at least as much art as science.

    I just have a gut feeling (barring voter fraud) Obama will go down in flames.

    I’m surprised I’ve yet to see any comments about the vans full of Somalis being driven in to vote for the mulatto. It seems like Hunter’s readers aren’t really following this election.

16. Wang at Princeton has upped O to 98%.

17. Svigor, What do you think explains the mass use among polling firms of “garbage in” models showing favorable results for Obama?

18. Gallup is using its Oct. 1 – 24 sample of 2012 likely voters which assumes an R+3 electorate. That is why there is such a disparity in the polls.

19. My father is working for Romney’s campaign in Michigan. He’s actually been going house to house and talking with people face to face. He says Romney is now hugely popular in the Detroit area. When Obama loses Michigan it’s going to come as a complete blind-side to all the analysts on CNN and MSNBC.

20. Svigor, What do you think explains the mass use among polling firms of “garbage in” models showing favorable results for Obama?

    This is all just what I’ve gleaned from sites like battlegroundwatch.com, so you’ll get much better answers there, but:

    1) First and foremost, weak voter screens. Pollsters use voter screens to filter out people who are least likely to vote. The weaker the screens, the bigger the Dem advantage in polls, because the population is substantially more Dem than Republican. This is perfectly consistent with common sense, especially to a race-realist: the putz demographics are less likely to vote, and Dems have these demographics all sewn up. And that’s not just down to race or even ethnicity; putzes are much more likely to fall for MSM bullshit.

    The way to counter this is with money, which means good polls are more expensive. Meaning, these newspapers which are bleeding money are going to tend to run crap polls. Most of them aren’t going to weep over giving the Democrat an “accidental” boost in this fashion.

    Turnout never matches polls with weak or nonexistent voter screens because a lot of Dem respondents don’t wind up voting. Turnout is what? 65-70%? A lot of these polls are great at measuring what the vote would be if turnout were 90%, but not very good at predicting the vote in real turnout scenarios, i.e., 65-70%.

    2) Voter profiles: who’s more likely to tell the MSM or bushy-tailed college students doing the polling to fuck off? Who’s more likely to want to keep his opinions to himself, vs. status-mongering over his “historical,” politically-correct and oh-so-media-approved choice?

    That’s it in a nutshell, though I’m sure I’m forgetting a lot, and you’ll get better answers at BGW, where they talk about specific elections, the spreads, etc.

21. Then there’s the PC bias. The zero just sued Gallup to get them to sample more minorities. What does that tell you? The term “chilling effect” comes to mind. And it doesn’t enter in a vacuum; PC is nothing if not a chilling effect. Who would you rather piss off, a re-elected 0bama, or a newly-elected Romney? From the average Joe’s perspective, who would you rather piss off in America; the BRA power structure, or White Advocates? Personally, I’d be much more afraid of the 0’s backlash than Romney’s. Romney doesn’t seem like the vengeful type, whereas the 0 is the Chicago Machine incarnate.

    In short, it’s safer for the pollsters to err on the side of the zero. I don’t know how strong this effect is, but it’s certainly an incentive for the herd to stay in line. A sort of Affirmative Action effect.

22. Chris, you won’t catch me poo-pooing the idea of a Romney win in Michigan. She’s in play, I says. I wouldn’t want to hang my election on it if I were Romney, but I wouldn’t be happy with Michigan right now if I was 0bama, either. And the first scenario is hypothetical, while the second is real.

23. Sample size is another area where the big boys (Gallup and Rasmussen) have a huge edge up on the other polls. They use big samples.

24. It’s good that folks are stoked in Michigan but simmer down there a little with predictions.

    Good to see there’s a door to door campaign though.

25. But I want 0bama gone for cultural reasons.

    I hope he goes down because of the psychological boost it will provide to those who voted in order to “just say no to niggers.” People (the world over, imo) desperately need to learn to say no to niggers, and to experience how good saying no to niggers can feel. The better it feels the more they’ll say no, so it’s very important to get this trend started, no matter how insignificant the starting point.

    Lol, I was wondering how you were holding up sharing a name with Nate Silver.

    It can be confusing when people quote him simply as “Silver says blah blah blah.” I think hang on, when did I say that? Then I think, ah, right, Nate.

26. Yankee Pride, Chris.

    http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/politics/Exclusive-survey-results-Where-Michigan-voters-stand-week-before-election/-/1719386/17196614/-/jtpo0yz/-/index.html

27. Yankee Pride indeed. Wasn’t Obama supposed to be crushing Romney in Michigan by this point?

28. He’s also recently turned Jewdel’s Oregon to light blue. There is a new poll in Oregon that only has Obama up 6.

29. BTW, I think that is a D+9 poll from memory. Check the internals.

30. R is making a play for Michigan and Pennsylvania late in the game to catch the nigger base in Philly and the D off guard and to avoid O saturating those two states with negative advertising.

31. O is a bandwagon candidate. Not much of a bandwagon this year though.

32. Nov. 6 may be a long painful night for Chris Matthews and the rest of Obama’s cheerleaders:

    http://m.washingtonexaminer.com/some-see-gop-voting-tsunami-coming/article/512142#.UJC7ZIl5.com/

33. http://mobile.oregonlive.com/advorg/pm_29233/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=J4SSCsEu

    President Barack Obama holds a relatively narrow lead of six points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Oregon, according to a new poll conducted for The Oregonian.

    Obama’s lead is considerably smaller than his margin of victory in Oregon four years ago and is a sign of how tight the presidential race has become across the nation.

    In addition, the poll also found that an initiative to legalize marijuana, Measure 80 is failing, with 49 percent opposed and 42 percent in favor. Voters are even more strongly opposed to two pro-casino measures –82 and 83 — that even their sponsors gave up on.