BRA
Gallup doesn’t expect the 2012 turnout to be as high as 2004 or 2008 or as low as it was in 1996 or 2000.
Someone in the comments predicted that the Democrats would have trouble this year turning out the putz vote. This would seem to verify that suspicion. It is worth noting Al Gore lost the 2000 election because 537 of these putzes in Florida didn’t show up on election day.
Note: If memory serves, the 2002 electorate was R+2, which is closer to Gallup’s projected R+3 electorate.
Gallup thinks the 2012 electorate will be more Republican than the 2004 electorate. In that election, Gallup had W. at 49 to 49 versus Kerry in its final tracking poll. The final electorate was a 49 to 49 partisan wash with leaners.
In other news, some late recent polls show a closer race in Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This could be related to a lack of enthusiasm among the Democrat base seen in the latest Pew poll.
Update: In Salon, there are some more rumblings of progressive discontent, Roxane Gay’s “Is Obama Failing the Black Community?,” and Michael Lind’s “Obama: Last of the “New Democrats”?
Walter Russell Mead thinks Obama would be a formidable candidate … a “comeback kid” like Grover Cleveland, in 2016. David Brooks and Ann Althouse have also ditched Obama. He also keeps losing all these newspaper endorsements in Iowa, Florida, and New Hampshire.
Update: The White working class in Ohio holds the balance of power in the 2012 presidential election.
It’s the total opposite of what they always argue—- that people don’t show up because life is Soooooo good and they are sooooo “complacent,” because they are sooooo selfish and fat (being old school “americans”).
Meantime, Charlie Wrangle was on t.v. at one point, giving that “keep em white laborers scrambling” speech.
The experience of actually living in the u.s. —while materially ok— (if that’s really all you were going for in life) is of a quality that most people seek some form of escape, like radical drugging for themselves and their children, or intake of historical narratives rooted in fantasy, reinforced by 24-7 repetition from t.v., “support groups,” or just a truly inbred circle of “friends” who can function as an echo chamber.
90% of people reading the above paragraph DID “seek more quality experience” they wouldn’t even know how, nowadays. They could only conceive of “doing good for others,” in shows of fake christi a Do-Gooderism.
–What used to be called “salt of the earth,” which seemed like a code word for “New York Nice,” or “Ghetto Nice.” Like where they bring a pie, stab you in the back, smile the whole time, never even know they did it, then walk away, knowing in their dark little hearts they just proved what a great person they are.
Interesting words itching from Zeleny there. Romney spending cash in Michigan is supposedly evidence of him losing. So to in Pennsylvsnnia and New Hampshire. Either way their predictive powers are covered.
Surely spending dough in those other states is a sign of confidence? Not according to the NYT though.
You need a decoder ring when reading the NYT. It’s incredible how well they speak out both sides of their mouths.
A dozen posts on Coke vs Nigger and not one on Frank-n-Stürm. Callous, Hunter. It’s like Detroit over here!
Its why the Ds wont touch gun control in a serious manner, all their white labor rubes would contemplate voting R. Serious these people live close to J’niqwa and her feral brood of super negroes and they ain’t gonna go unarmed.
I love the idea of the 0 running again. Trouble is I doubt they can get him to cooperate, lol. He’s going to be 4 years along the road to being the richest ex-president in American history in 2016. Why in God’s name would he give that up to be president? Clinton looooooves people. He looooooves politics. He’s a pig in shit right now, because he gets to campaign again. 0bama is an introvert, with manic-depressive tendencies at that. He’s not a people person. He’s not really even that into politics. For him, it was all about the power. But he’s going to have far more personal power with a couple hundred million in his pocket than he ever had as president. The president is under constant scrutiny. Billionaires? Not so much. They can get head from interns all day long if they want. And all he has to do is give one teleprompter reading every couple of weeks or so (or whatever, I dunno what an ex-president’s speaking schedule looks like), and play golf in the mean time.
If he’s a homosexual, he’ll keep the wookie beard around for show and turn his office into a bath house. If he’s straight, he’ll divorce her and go for an open marriage to some quadroon pop singer, and turn his office into a bath house.
Mulatto heaven. Half a billion or so hires a lot of people to boss around. As a side bonus, if he still wants the fame and adoration, he can find some part-time political gig, like “Ambassador to the Muslim World” or something.
The D’s don’t have to worry about gun control. They get that, and everything else they want once White men are out numbered enough in the electorate. I think it was that Carvile slim ball who said that and he’s right