Early Voting: No Sign of D+8 Electorate

BRA

The Daily Mail has a new article which reports the Romney campaign isn’t worried about the recent flurry of D+8 and D+9 polls because the 2012 election is already underway in early voting and there is no sign whatsoever of a pollyanna 2008-style or better Democrat turnout advantage in the swing states:

Florida:

“Although Obama appeared to make big strides on the first two days of eight-day period for in-person early voting, his pace slowed on Monday and Tuesday. Democrats netted 73,000 vote from the first two days, but gained 28,000 votes on Monday and just 16,000 votes on Tuesday.

In the meantime, Republicans lead among absentee ballots by 70,000 votes. Democrats won the combined early vote by more than 360,000 in 2008 and currently lead by just 49,000.”

Colorado:

“More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Colorado, suggesting that the swing state, where Obama campaigns on Thursday, could be slipping from the President’s grasp.”

North Carolina:

“In North Carolina, which Obama won by just 14,000 votes in 2008, Romney has cut the Democratic early voting advantage by 100,000. Obama has not visited the state since September and Democrats have privately conceded that he is unlikely to win it.”

Nevada:

“In Nevada, Obama is also well behind his 2008 support in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, where he will also campaign tomorrow.”

Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida:

‘We’re wildly over-performing in Republican McCain counties and Obama’s significantly underperforming in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina compared to 2008,’ a senior Romney strategist told MailOnline.

‘You go county by county and we are very happy where we are. We have leads among election day voters and independents. The Obama campaign is saying it’s a 2008 model. But it’s not. Obama needs to win independents.’

On a conference call with reporters, Rich Beeson, Romney’s political director, said: ‘In Florida right now about 2.2 million votes have been cast in early and absentee.

Right now as of today only 39,645 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. When you look at the independent break in each state, they are behind where they need to be going into election day next week.

‘We will win election day by double digits in Florida so they clearly are in a bad place going into day. They have three more days of early vote but they also have four so far where they have not made up any ground.’  . . .

The Romney campaign is increasingly confident it will win in Iowa, which Obama won in 2008 and where his caucuses victory over Hillary Clinton launched him on the way to the White House.

‘Iowa is a state where there’s a very clear line of demarcation,’ Beeson said. ‘Democrats tend to vote absentee and Republicans vote on election day. If the Democrats go into election day with less than a 130,000 lead on partisan registration and independents break, then we will win Iowa.’”

If the 2012 electorate is a D+8 electorate or D+9 electorate, as many of these recent polls are blithely assuming, then why isn’t there any sign of this in early voting? Why isn’t Obama matching or beating his turnout in early voting in 2008?

It’s the same D+8 electorate, right?

About Hunter Wallace 12367 Articles
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21 Comments

  1. Uhm, could you guys come up with some real criticism here? You guys suck at talking people down off of ledges.

    E.g., the “spending money and precious time in an assault on Minn/Pennsylvania spells doom for Romney” thing. Last I heard, Romney is flush with cash. I’m not sure where the 0 is, but Romney has more money than he knows what to do with. Conventional political wisdom is, if your opponent starts spending money and time in your states and you’re worried he might get something out of it, you spend money and time there, too. If you know he’s wasting his time, you just let him wasted his money and time there, and keep spending yours in useful locations.

    But…isn’t 0bama scheduled to go into Minnesota and Pennsylvania, now? I’ll have to check on that one, but I think he is. He’s probably spending money in those states now, too. I’ll have to look into that as well.

    If he is, we know 0bama doesn’t feel safe enough in those places to just let Romney run around and spend money unanswered (as he would in, say, Massachusetts or New York).

    And that would cut the legs right out from under the “Romney’s desperate scramble for an alternative to Ohio” theme I’m seeing here. If it had any legs left after “gee, why isn’t Romney concentrating with laser-like focus on Nevada/Iowa/Colorado/Wisconsin like he isn’t a dumbass?”

    WaPo:
    The Obama defectors

    Two weeks of Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll interviews find 84 percent of likely voters who supported Obama in 2008 support him this year, while 13 percent say they are switching to Romney and 3 percent are backing others or haven’t made up their mind yet.

    He’s losing 13-16% of his old voters to Romney. That’s a Hell of a gap to mind.

  2. Lol, yeah, I’m bored.

    NYT:

    In Shift, Romney Campaign Approaches Pennsylvania With a New Urgency

    In a striking last-minute shift, the Romney campaign has decided to invest its most precious resource — the candidate’s time — in a serious play to win Pennsylvania.

    Mr. Romney’s appearance here on Sunday could be a crafty political move to seriously undercut President Obama, or it could be a sign of desperation. Either way, his visit represents the biggest jolt yet in a state that was until recently largely ignored in the race for the White House.

    Over the last several days, with polls showing Mr. Obama’s edge in the state narrowing, Republicans have sprung into action and forced the Democrats to spend resources here that could have gone toward more competitive battleground states.

    Conservative super PACs dusted off old advertisements that had not been shown in weeks and shipped them to local television stations from Scranton to Pittsburgh. They ordered millions of dollars in airtime.

    And overnight the race here became the most expensive test yet of whether Republicans and their armies of cash-flush outside groups could unsettle the race at the last minute.

    The super PACs helped create an opening that paved the way for the Romney campaign to start making its move. The campaign has already invested $1 million in television advertising across the state, and on Thursday it bolstered that effort even further with a new round of commercials that will ensure a heavy and continuous presence through Election Day.

    This came as the Republican National Committee made one of its largest commitments of the race so far, dropping $2.5 million into the state.

    Forced to respond, the Obama campaign has put more than $1.5 million into an ad campaign here and is planning even more. Democrats are saying that the race is much closer than they would have guessed just a week ago.

    “It’s a little tighter than I would have expected,” said Jef Pollock, a pollster for Priorities U.S.A. Action, a Democratic super PAC. “But the question is whether this is just the natural tightening that’s going to happen.”

    It’s a good move, just based on bleeding 0bama for cash and ginning up headlines and doubt. The likelihood that either Pennsylvania or Minnesota will provide Romney with a path to victory is low; if he wins either, he’ll probably win Ohio, too, but the reverse is not true.

    So the rewards for Romney going into Pennsylvania and Minnesota are:
    1) Bleed 0bama of cash and make him spread himself over a larger territory.
    2) More electoral votes can often translate into more seats in congress
    3) Stronger perceived mandate post-election

  3. FWIW, Hannity just had on a person who thinks Romney is headed for a win in Ohio. It might have been Pat Caddell. He reiterated the point that the core polling methods were designed when people still had land lines and when people answered the phone. He said this the key to problems. The basic method doesn’t fit with today’s society. Maybe Svigor can say if BGW or other poll-skeptic sites address this angle.

  4. In the North, Romney will win Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Iowa.

    In the South, he’ll take back Virginia, Florida and North Carolina, in addition to winning the GOP’s traditional Southern-state block.

    In the West, he’ll Romney will win back Arizona, Colorado and Nevada, in addition to the rest of Rocky Mountain and Northern Plains states.

    Romney will win by a landslide. Lew and Gottfried will commit suicide in a fit of despair. John, in usual form, will jump sides at the last second, proclaiming that he knew Romney had it all along, and will abandon his “partition” campaign and move to Massachussetts. Apuleius will have a rage-induced stroke, uttering only the words “damn yankees” before slipping into a coma. Svigor will win many bets and write an epic post about the money he made and the bender he’s about to go on.

  5. FWIW, Hannity just had on a person who thinks Romney is headed for a win in Ohio. It might have been Pat Caddell. He reiterated the point that the core polling methods were designed when people still had land lines and when people answered the phone. He said this the key to problems. The basic method doesn’t fit with today’s society. Maybe Svigor can say if BGW or other poll-skeptic sites address this angle.

    I kept telling you guys to read up over there. I’m barely scratching the surface of the stuff they talk about. Straight up, I just pick and choose a few things to post here, if I posted everything it would be waaaay more of a Svigor spamfest than it is already.

    Yes, they absolutely talk about the phones thing, the “everybody has caller ID now” thing, the “younger and poorer voters are more likely to be cell-phone-only voters,” all that shit. I’m only throwing a few choice bits at you guys.

  6. In the North, Romney will win Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Iowa.

    I’ll go with Barone:

    Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.

    Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

    North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

    Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

    Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

    Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

    Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

    Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer’s remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats’ traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

    Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

    New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

    Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

    Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas’ Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions’ turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they’ll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

    Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

    Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

    Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there’s no auto bailout issue. Obama.

    Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

    Except I’m going to call Penn and Wisconsin for 0bama.

    Romney 285, 0bama 253.

  7. What kind of moron answers polling calls?

    The kind of idiots who vote for 0bama. Duh. You said it yourself, when you said only people with a lick of sense will vote for Romney.

  8. Romney will win by a landslide. Lew and Gottfried will commit suicide in a fit of despair. John, in usual form, will jump sides at the last second, proclaiming that he knew Romney had it all along, and will abandon his “partition” campaign and move to Massachussetts. Apuleius will have a rage-induced stroke, uttering only the words “damn yankees” before slipping into a coma. Svigor will win many bets and write an epic post about the money he made and the bender he’s about to go on.

    Lol, I even liked it before I won all the money at the end.

  9. Svigor says:
    ‘Except I’m going to call Penn and Wisconsin for 0bama.’

    Wisconsin is going for Romney. I would not rule out Penn.

  10. I’m hearing a lot of super-confident predictions from both sides, here and elsewhere. It really could go either way at this point. But I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict a big Romney victory, 337-201. Maybe this is just wishful thinking because I really want to see Obama’s supporters thoroughly crushed and utterly humiliated, but I’m inclined to believe the polling data provided by Hunter, Svigor, et al.

    Anyway, getting back to the big picture, whatever happens on Tuesday isn’t going to change the long-term trajectory of American decline. Check out this little gem found today over at Lawrence Auster’s VFR: America in the long run is still lost. Our future is to be a country ruled by a coalition of nonwhite parasites and white leftist scum.

    And that’s that.

  11. Lol, Michael Barone needs to put down the crack pipe. He’s obviously telling his conservatard readers what they want to hear, reinforcing their wishful thinking.

  12. With no disrespect intended toward jeppo, that line is typical misleading bullshit from Jew Auster. America’s future is rule by White leftist and Jewish scum and sundry non-Whites many of whom are notparasites. Asians are the most obvious example. Nevertheless, it was probably a good enough overgeneralization to get a lot of people focusing on “parasites.” As always, Auster diverts attention to symptoms and away from causes. This is the problem with focusing so much on blacks. Ultimately, Blacks are not the most basic problem. The real problem is the people who enforce the rules that give us no choice but to live among blacks. That would be Whites and Jews.

  13. Svigor says:
    ‘Except I’m going to call Penn and Wisconsin for 0bama.’

    Wisconsin is going for Romney. I would not rule out Penn.

    I think he has the edge in Wisconsin, too, but I figured I’d be a nabob and officially predict a loss.

  14. Lol, Michael Barone needs to put down the crack pipe. He’s obviously telling his conservatard readers what they want to hear, reinforcing their wishful thinking.

    Everything that comes out of your mouth sounds like what I hear at dem sites, lol.

    Barone is highly-respected. Assuming that is based on the fact that he makes pretty good guesses, care to show us an election or two where Barone “just told conservitards what they wanted to hear”?

  15. I’m hearing a lot of super-confident predictions from both sides, here and elsewhere.

    Me too, but as you suggest, moving beyond that, I’m hearing little else from Dems besides “poll top lines! No no, not the actual data in the polls, that’s all bullshit! Just the top lines!”, top line averages, Nate Silver, and from Lew, this Lo Wang guy.

    That’s it. No early voter totals, no turnout analysis, no nothing. But then, I admit I can’t stand listening to them for long. If they had a site like BGW I’d LOVE to read it, but Silver’s blog is just unbearable, the same stuck up twats saying the same supercilious horseshit over and over (we’re dumber than Nate, we didn’t take statistics like Nate, we’re not genius prognosticating sabremetricians like Nate, we’re haven’t predicted 1 whole election (very, very well, I admit) like Nate, Nate gives Romney a x chance to win, so Nate’s model is unfalsifiable, bla bla bla. All shit, no corn).

  16. The most basic problem is the worship of equality and the demigods of diversity, tolerance and multiculturalism. A Marxist pantheon.

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