BRA
The floor is yours …
Update: My predictions are the same as Barone’s … no sign of D+8 electorate so far in early voting, Romney wins, and Obama makes history again by becoming America’s first one term African-American president.
Obama: Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada.
Romney: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio.
Update: Here are the closing arguments: President Barack Obama: My Vision for America and Mitt Romney: My Vision for America.
I think New Hampshire is the sleeper. A couple of reasons. They like being contrarians, lots of former mass-holes live there, mass-holes who like moderate repubs like Romney, and who moved to NH to escape mass-land madness.
I think NH really wants to matter this time around.
Steyn is a Canadian, Jew.
“According to the UNH study, New Hampshire gained 37,500 migrants from the rest of New England over the last six years. And there has been no substantial increase in minorities.”
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2008/03/20/altered_state/
White flight to NH, NH may actually be getting more conservative as the rest of New England gets liberal. It has accelerated since 2008. McCain did best in southern NH, the part that is the recipient of most new-comers.
Best point you’ve made yet, Svigor — if the Romney camp thought they were going to lose Ohio why would they continue to spend money there.
Shit.
House races:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/02/house-republicans-could-add-to-their-majority-on-election-day/?print=1
“Steyn is a Canadian, Jew.”
And at the height of our last folly in Iraq, one of the biggest neocon cheerleaders for George II (and his flight jacket).
Steyn’s a joke and that column was nothing special.
Mosin Nagant says: In these rural parts of this northern state the Ron Paul signs are about as common as Obama 2012 signs, and Romney-Ryan signs vastly predominate. However, the nearby coal mining towns and patches are inhabited by “traditional” straight-ticket Democrat voters who WILL happen to vote Obama just because he is the Democratic candidate.
Coal country will belong to Romney. And the area in the neighboring states whose lives also depend on coal directly or indirectly, including Pennsylvania and Ohio.
FACES (http://www.facesofcoal.org/index.php?home) has been very active in getting the word out and the miners know their livelihoods are on the line in this election. And it is not just miners in the areas who know this. It’s the power plant workers, chemical plant workers, and mill workers. Yes these are traditional Democrat voters, but this time around they have been better educated. “Your job will be gone if Obama wins. he doesn’t give a shit about the lights being on in Philadelphia”.
From Wiki, original EIA link not found:
Consol Energy is the fifth largest employer in West Virginia.
Side note: I have been trying to get a job with Consol for years, but they have not had any opening in my field in years. Hell they hardly have had any openings at all because they just aren’t hiring people. Neither is American Electric Power, or any of the other large coal companies in the area.
Minnesota: 46 Romney, 45 Obama
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954507/posts
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/aff-poll-minnesota-a-tossup-148296.html
Hunter,
Where is the other 9%? Greens? Libertarian? Undecided?
Obama’s demographic gamble:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83244.html?hp=t2_3
@ rjp: Good balance to my overstatement. My comment was in support of Gottfried’s reminder that these white “traditional” extremely loyal Democratic voters are not really liberal. In my area the coal industry has already BEEN nearly shut down, but the tradition of labour voting against the party of the rich exploiters remains strong.
I agree with you that more will break with tradition this time, but there are still some very stubborn holdouts around here. If they would all break to Romney this state would certainly go Red.
Mosin Nagant says: @ rjp: Good balance to my overstatement. My comment was in support of Gottfried’s reminder that these white “traditional” extremely loyal Democratic voters are not really liberal.
In working class areas like West Virginia that don’t suffer from “the problem”, voters are waking up and seeing they can’t vote the same nationally as they vote locally. I can’t wait to see Rockefeller tossed out on his ass.
If the states surrounding West Virginia aren’t red this year, except for Maryland, I would expect the NYTimes map post-election to show the bleeding into the neighboring states into areas that were formerly blue.
Just read the much talked about Barone piece in The Washington Examiner. Completely silly.
Barone uses reasoning like this, “The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses”
From Friends of Coal:
Lew,
I suspect it has less to do with him over-analyzing things than with him having an unwarranted amount of hope for an awakening, mobilization, and seriousness in our people that I just don’t see. Gas prices are down, job numbers aren’t alarming, we’re sort of between fiscal cliffs at the moment (budget crises are so 2008), and we’re riding the crest of a wave of quantitative easing.
Hunter’s one of the few white-wing bloggers who has the good sense to follow and think about blogs outside the movement and even in the enemy camp. So I don’t think he’s suffering from the usual partisan echo chamber effect. I believe the error is in his heart.
Karl Rove wobbles. “The storm hurt Romney.” Nice hedge karl.
http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/11/rove-sandy-helped-obama-148255.html
Gottfried,
There was a Stevie Wonder concert aparently in a college in Ohio. 200 people showed. To a free Stevie Wonder gig. The controlling factor was it was an Obama benefit.
Obama will not get the student vote quite like that ever again.
I’m not voting for Romney or Obama. I don’t care who wins. I just see no evidence at all of the D+8 to D+9 electorate assumed by these polls.
Matt,
I’ve been extremely dismissive of Northern Whites for months now. If Obama wins, it will be because he wins Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He is going to lose the South though.
I respect scientific polling. Stuff like crowd size and enthusiasm gaps and number of yard signs and who everybody in your local Donut shop likes are completely anecdotal and meaningless.
Nixon kicked George McGovern’s ass in 1972 when leftwing anti-war demonstrators clogged every street in every large city all over the USA.
Everyone remembers this quote right?
“I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.”
Matt Parrott says:
‘Gas prices are down, job numbers aren’t alarming…’
Gas prices have been very high the past four years and only recently for a short time have come down. Job numbers are pathetic. Many numbers crunchers claim the TRUE unemployment is in the vicinity of 14%.
The price of milk, meat, fruit and damn near everything else is sky high.
We’ve see astrnomical increases in food stamp recipients and various welfare programs along with higher taxes. Next year even higher tax rates will be realized.
And it has now been shown that violent crime has dramatically spiked! Silver, if you are reading this, have you seen the recent stats?
Obam is a total failure!
Crowds can be a good indication. Elias Canetti wrote a very good book on this.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954550/posts
Mitt Romney has cut President Obama’s lead in half among Maine voters, although Obama still holds a tough-to-overcome 7-percentage-point advantage, according to a poll conducted last week for the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram.
Obama leads the Republican nominee 49 percent to 42 percent in the statewide telephone survey conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by Portland-based Critical Insights. In mid-September — before the presidential debates sparked enthusiasm for Romney — Obama led by 16 points
@ Sam
“We’ve see astrnomical increases in food stamp recipients and various welfare programs”
You do realize that, that makes Obama more likely to be re-elected, not less. If people are getting free shit they’ll come out and vote to continue that trend.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowds_and_Power#section_2
This is something the Redshirts in the counter reconstruction might have understood. If Romney loses whites will have to start defending their property by other means. Crowds are power. Certainly manipulation of crowds is power.
Gottfried says:
@ Sam
“We’ve see astrnomical increases in food stamp recipients and various welfare programs”
‘You do realize that, that makes Obama more likely to be re-elected, not less. If people are getting free shit they’ll come out and vote to continue that trend.’
Yes, it is a tough obstacle to overcome. That is why it is incumbent upon those of us not on the dole to vote against him.
In the 1920s when Hitler was coming to power by speaking publicly and the National Socialists were fighting Communists in the streets of Munich and Berlin crowds WERE power.
Today we have TVs. Kennedy beat Nixon cause he kicked his ass on TV (debate) Clinton was President and is still liked today because he is great on TV. Romney narrowed the race between himself and Obama cause he handily won a debate on TV. Obama is President because he gave an incredible speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004 on TV.
Glenn Beck’s huge crowd at the Mall in Washington came to absolutely nothing. It didn’t increase his power, he ended up losing his show.
Just did a little research, 2008 Rasmussen was CLOSER to the actual percentage break down of the vote in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Colorado than most other pollsters. I think he had McCain up by 1 in FL, he lost FL by 1.5. Other pollsters CALLED the vote right, but Rasmussen was closer to the actual breakdown. I’m thinking is a turnout battle year, the better vote breakdown predictor will be more accurate at calling it than they would be in a blow-out year. 2004 was a turnout battle year. 2008 was a blow-out.
I disagree about a number of your details.
Obama conducted nurnberg scale rallies in 2008. Astonishing acts of mass hypnotism.
RR are not doing that but there’s a healthy crowd atmosphere. Getting the well to do to gather like this is rare. It’s as much about their latent desire to see off the nig as anything else Romney might be doing.
It’s still all about the mob. Gathered or not, it’s the bigger mob’s view of reality that will swing the day.
We are all a mass of mobs. I wish whites would recognize that. Power isn’t given. The mob seizes it and controls reality. It ain’t pretty and it ain’t fair, but that’s how you keep your country. You seize it and you don’t let anyone else touch it.
“That is why it is incumbent upon those of us not on the dole to vote against him.” Yes, Sam, absolutely. It is our duty and our right.
Whites in America will only become united in opposition to BRA when the system just can’t work any more. When towns, cities, even counties (there is a county in Vermont that wants to secede and join New Hampshire) and ultimately states and groups of states attempt to secede because the middle class just can’t afford to subsidize those on the dole and the Military Industrial Complex any more you’ll see some real dividing by race then.
If a bankrupt California , Illinois, New York etc. gets bailed out by the federal govt you’re going to see some real fissures open up in this country.
Landshark, well organized and financed elites with quality / superior force seize power. Their Fifth Column is always key. One of the tactics is to utilize the mob – they have to divide the mob and control the opposition. Only an organisation can do this.
“Gathered or not, it’s the bigger mob’s view of reality that will swing the day.” Perhaps not always the biggest, but the most united, resourceful and fiercest.
That “there is a county in Vermont that wants to secede and join New Hampshire” is surprising, and good news if for the right reason. Conservative white counties SHOULD move to secede from liberal multicultural states. There are rights of counties, boroughs and townships, as well as rights of states.
Lynda, an organization is its own mob.
Are mobs manipulated and used? Of course. But just because a mob is using other mobs does not mean it’s not a mob itself.
Gottfried, I suppose this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killington,_Vermont_secession_movement
is what you meant? Not a conservative movement.
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/01/valerie-jarret-after-we-win-this-election-its-our-turn-payback-time-wsi/
Yeah that’s the one Mosin. It seems pretty Conservative to me. They want to stop Vermont from redistributing so much of their income.
You simple sons of bitches. I’m talking about crowds. The crowd isn’t a mob.
It is not necessarily true that more people on food stamps and welfare translates to increased Obama and Democrat support. No. A good deal of people who have been forced on those programs during the last couple of years would much prefer to be bringing in the level of money they were making when they had decent jobs. These people are not satisfied with “drawing” just enough to survive.
A high percentage of white people prefer to earn considerable income that allows a fairly high standard of living. You just don’t get that by being on “the draw.”
As for gas prices “being lower,” relative to what? Gas right this minute is twenty or so cents less than an all time record high for America. $3.60 a gallon is hardly a price to declare “gas is low, y’all.” The prices on everything in the US is at a ridiculous high. And this developing when wages are dropping to levels people were making literally thirty years ago.
Points Gottfried has been making? LOL, I thought I was the one who for weeks and on many occasions over the last year has been harping on the point that a good number of white people vote D for reasons that have nothing at all to do with nigger worship or homosexual advocacy. They vote D for labor issues. Period. I also discussed the coal question and the associated jumping ship on the part of traditional D voters over the matter. Obama is no more popular in coal communities than he is at a Klan meeting. Ditto his liberal Democrat allies.
But as far as whites waking up and mobilizing, well, I’ll say the same thing as I did about the outcome of the election: don’t bet over fifty cents on it.
Well hell, why didn’t you say so?
By the way, I ordered that book on Amazon just now. It looks interesting.
What would you say the percentage of white people voting democrat solely on the basis of hatred of white Christian males is? I’d say it’s probably 55% at least.
There are lots of people in this country who will vote Obama simply because he extended unemployment benefits.
Crowd Control. If you don’t control the crowd you have a bunch of blacks.
There has to be a good number of Republicans who won’t vote Romney because of Bush.
We have to consider that in the age of the internet, every electorate is more educated than the last, and has a greater capability of individual analysis. The information is there for all. There has to be a huge number of intellectually curious Republicans who refuse to vote for Romney based solely on his neocon alignment. And this would be a part of the Republican mob that votes.
“We have to consider that in the age of the internet, every electorate is more educated than the last, and has a greater capability of individual analysis. The information is there for all. There has to be a huge number of intellectually curious Republicans who refuse to vote for Romney based solely on his neocon alignment. And this would be a part of the Republican mob that votes.”
Internet haunters have made a good start and are more numerous than only a few years back, but a few hours carousing and listening to “the public at large” will swiftly disabuse anyone of the notion that the population in general is significantly better informed than in the past. A significant percentage of our people are still back in about 1960. The vast majority of our people are still getting their news and having their opinions molded exclusively by the Mainstream News and Entertainment Media.
“Well, the truth is the northern economic populists are happy to align with the black agenda. Whether they personally like blacks or not is really beside the point.”
Balkanization will always lead to tribal voting eventually so at some point that “are” will turn into a “were.” I wasn’t expecting any move in that direction in this election because Romney is such an obvious globalist but maybe i was wrong. Maybe that first debate performance lit a fuse. It does seem possible at least that because Romney is so obviously capable – even if in a globalist direction – compared to baboons like Bush and McCain that that was enough to flick a switch. If HW and Svigor turn out to be right about the polling – and i switched off the whole thign so i have no opinion on that – then it will be pretty significant if ex-Democrat bluecollar voters vote for someone like Romney who’s an obvious globalist and doesn’t even do any of the Reagan hardhat schtick.
Interesting times.
.
“I still haven’t heard a reasonable explanation of why the pollsters are baking such obviously inaccurate data into their results. I can’t believe it’s merely because they love Obama so much.”
They *really* hate us and they’re close enough to taste it.
Don’t kid yourselves, lots of northern whites get the warm tinglies every time they get to prove or show how magnanimous they think they are toward blacks. Mostly democrats, but lot’s of conservatards too. It’s sickening to watch.