BRA
The floor is yours …
Update: My predictions are the same as Barone’s … no sign of D+8 electorate so far in early voting, Romney wins, and Obama makes history again by becoming America’s first one term African-American president.
Obama: Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada.
Romney: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio.
Update: Here are the closing arguments: President Barack Obama: My Vision for America and Mitt Romney: My Vision for America.
Voting for obama gives lots of white people psychic orgasms. They can walk out of that polling booth with an imaginary crowd of adoring niggers in their head applauding and smiling in approval.
http://m.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-young-voters-arent-feeling-obama-mania-this-time/2012/11/02/e9a97024-1c5a-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html?wprss=rss_opinions
Four years ago, when I was 28, friends of mine were quitting their first jobs to work for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. I was getting invites to fundraise or phone-bank for the senator every few days. I spent election night hugging strangers in a bar in Brooklyn and met up with a dozen pals in Washington for Inauguration Day, all of us sleeping on couches and walking miles in the 20-degree weather.
In 2008, voters 18 to 29 went for Obama 2 to 1over John McCain; turnout among these young voters was the second-largestever recorded. But in 2012, that youthful Obama-mania seems to have faded. Alex Wirth of the Harvard Public Opinion Project has forecast that turnout for voters under 30 will be 34 to 40 percent, compared with 51 percent four years ago. Although the youngest voters greatly prefer Obama over Mitt Romney, according to survey data, they are far less enthusiastic, are more likely to call themselves independents than Democrats or Republicans, and rate themselves less interested in the news and less likely to vote compared with four years ago.
http://articles.mcall.com/2012-11-02/news/mc-pa-presidential-ground-game-20121102_1_romney-team-obama-or-romney-pennsylvania-voters
After months of punditry and polls, after a superstorm that scattered volunteers and darkened polling places, all that matters is voter turnout.
Although Pennsylvania was not a prime presidential battleground in 2012, both the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney campaigns are cranking up plans to get voters to the polls. Unlike states that allow early voting, more than 90 percent of Pennsylvania voters will cast their ballots on Election Day.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954598/posts
President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.
The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.
“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954571/posts
Consistent with a recent Pew Research survey that found a majority of voters voting for Romney are now affirmatively voting for him instead of merely against President Barack Obama, Republicans in Colorado have said they have not seen the level of enthusiasm for Republicans that they are seeing for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan in a decade.
According to the Denver Post:
Most Republicans contend that the last time the GOP top of the ticket in Colorado was this strong was in 2002, when Gov. Bill Owens and U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard ran for re-election.
The Romney campaign released a web video Saturday highlighting the enthusiasm of Colorado’s voters for the Romney-Ryan ticket, reflected by the overflow crowd at the two men’s appearance with Kid Rock at Red Rocks Amphitheater: with video
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/03/Obama-Cleveland-80k-compared-to-4k
Last night, in the cold and with long lines, 30,000 people showed up in Ohio to see Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. That same day, Obama attracted a meager 2,800. But enthusiasm for President FailureTeleprompter can be judged by more than comparisons with Romney. In 2008, at his last stop in Cleveland, a Democrat stronghold, Obama attracted 80,000 people. This morning, at his last 2012 stop in that same city, Obama could only attract 4,000.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83267.html?hp=t1_3
NILES, Ohio — Jim Roan walked through a slice of suburban Niles, on the northeastern edge of Ohio, a clipboard with bar codes in hand, leaves crunching under his feet. Halloween decorations adorned almost every lawn on every small, two-story house set back from the street.
The 76-year-old retiree was a Hillary Clinton supporter in 2008, but volunteered for Barack Obama when he became the nominee. He’s been doing the same for the Democratic president’s campaign since March, door-knocking and phone-banking throughout Ohio, repeating shifts from the late morning until the evening, when it’s too dark to see outside.
Can the Democrat put his finger on the difference in energy in 2012?
“It’s hard to quantify, but there is significantly less enthusiasm,” said Roan. “I think there’s sort of grim determination on the part of some people, more than enthusiasm. … And it shows up in our volunteers. … We don’t have the number of young people volunteering like we did last time.
Democrats in deep-blue Pa. voice confidence — and some nervousness
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/democrats-in-deep-blue-pa-voice-confidence–and-some-nervousness/2012/11/03/a551ae2c-25cf-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_story.html?hpid=z2
JENKINTOWN, Pa. — Joshua Shapiro woke up at 5:30 a.m. Friday, grabbed his iPhone and started answering e-mails from his bed about power outages in Sandy-slammed Montgomery County. He had 800,000 people and public facilities to worry about as the top elected executive of this county in Philadelphia’s suburbs, and he also had his polling places to get back in operation as the top Democratic leader here.
His Democrats were rattled. They have been smacked around statewide since conservatives set up a permanent tea party in the capital of Harrisburg, but they have persisted in believing they were proudly and permanently blue in presidential elections. And yet, Pennsylvania is suddenly being treated like a battleground state. . . .
The Obama campaign is concerned enough about the state that it has reserved ad time during the Monday Night Football game that the beloved Philadelphia Eagles are playing, and former President Bill Clinton is packing in four rallies that day.
The gritty hand-to-hand combat to turn out voters, always intense the weekend before Election Day, has taken on a more frenzied quality this year in a state with no early voting and a requirement that a voter must really be absent to get an absentee ballot.
The hurricane messed up the careful calibrations of the vaunted Obama get-out-the-vote operation. Some 250 to 300 polling places statewide remained without electricity early Saturday. Each day brings another legal skirmish over access to the polls in a state whose Republican-controlled legislature enacted one of the most restrictive voter identification laws in the country. . . .
The Republicans took note that about 85,000 Democrats who voted in the state’s primary failed to cast a vote for Obama, an undervote they theorize is a lack of confidence in the president’s leadership that they can build upon, particularly in the coal counties bordering Ohio, says Pitman.
Woke up thinking maybe vote Obama.
For all the usual reasons, but also the “New South” is getting increasingly plagued by filth in the environment, due to immigration.
New cases are cropping up for PCE and TCE, which happens when “DEVELOPERS” create policy-oriented devaluations of farm land, like the Tobacco Acts or whatever, and usually in areas previously concentrated with Northern Europeans of particular religions, which is genocide).
Farm = pesticides and industries were “in the country” and so didn’t care about dumping. Then “subdivisions” give every house its own well. THEN comes fracking.
Potable water is a real U.S. issue, so U.S. HAS ALREADY BEEN THE THIRD WORLD for a long time. I have met people in nice “developments” who have tried to live without heat or cooling. Either they don’t turn it on (can’t afford it) or it broke and was far too expensive to replace. It being the South, they can kind of get away with this.
Would Obama do more to get Middle Class White Americans safe water????
NYC has had complaints because so people could actually see living things swimming in the tap water. But that’s better than PCE, TCE, from building on industrial and farm ground, then making people drink it.
Which candidate will offer Middle Class Whites water?
Apparently Southerners are being poisoned by where the “developers” decided to build their chinese-dry-walled homes.
Fallout from Immigration (yankee or otherwise) is really the only issue.
Nate Silver on Sharon Angle:
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/03/senator-sharon-angle-agrees-with-nate-silver-barack-obama-has-an-84-chance-of-winning/
Jim
“Voting for obama gives lots of white people psychic orgasms. They can walk out of that polling booth with an imaginary crowd of adoring niggers in their head applauding and smiling in approval.”
Sure but i’m not talking about them i’m talking about mechanics and waitresses who don’t vote Democrat for SWPL reasons.
I’m not saying i believe what HW and Svigor’s are saying as i haven’t been following it at all apart from glancing at headlines – just saying which demographic might theoretically explain it if it was true.
FiveThirtyEight- Obama 83.7% chance of winning Electoral College
Princeton Election Consortium-Obama 323 EC votes and 98%-100% chance to win
Votomatic- Obama 332 Romney 206
Real Clear Politics- Obama 290 Romney 248
HuffPost Politics- Obama 277 Romney 206 (55 Toss Ups)
Intrade- Obama 64.7% chance of winning
Betfair- Obama 68% chance of winning
In Ohio, a Study in Contrasts as 2 Campaigns Get Out Vote
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/us/politics/in-ohio-2-campaigns-offer-a-study-in-contrasts.xml;jsessionid=3128A124E58B011C9193EA3AFD0DB017?f=19
CINCINNATI – Inside a peeling former nightclub here, Obama volunteers are perched on any seats they can find, trays of half-eaten sandwiches line an old mirrored bar and a hand-scrawled list of “office needs” includes toilet paper and Teddy Grahams.
But if this campaign office conveys a casual, ragtag feel, it belies a sprawling operation with an intricate chain of command, volunteers who have been here for years and a lexicon worthy of the military. Volunteer red, white and blue team captains bear particular duties for getting voters to the polls, not to mention “comfort captains,” assigned to tend to coffee, meals and sore feet.
After extensive test runs the past few weekends for this Election Day get-out-the-vote machine, an Obama staff member held one final meeting with volunteers in a back room the other night, saying, “Next Tuesday, it’s showtime!”
The Kenwood Romney Victory Center – one of but three in this county around Cincinnati, five fewer than the Obama camp – is 10 miles and a world away. Inside a suburban office building populated by insurance firms and walk-in medical clinics, there are no dry runs, no flowchart bureaucracy and fewer young faces; many of the 20 or so volunteers are north of middle age.
What there is, is passion.
By my count Hunter you are predicting Romney 315 Obama 223.
Brutus wrote: “I thought I was the one who for weeks and on many occasions over the last year has been harping on the point that a good number of white people vote D for reasons that have nothing at all to do with nigger worship or homosexual advocacy. They vote D for labor issues. Period. I also discussed the coal question….”
I for one have noticed you have brought out the point frequently and long before Gottfried, and that you make good sense in your comments. I would add that many of our LOCAL “coal regions” Democrats vote straight ticket (and they say so:) for the sake of their “tradition.” Most of them are NOT employed presently (many are retired) but like you stated: they are NOT really liberal and not pro-Obama, pro-immigration or pro-multicultural. It’s paradoxical.
“It’s paradoxical.”
It’s not really. When you have a homogenous population politics will tend to divide along socio-economic lines. Ethnic balkanization, which has been the norm in the South for centuries, leads to tribal voting. If there’s a transition from one to the other it takes time for a switch to take place because people are creatures of habit (and a lot of the older people will never be able to switch).
I’ll say Obama 294 Romney 244.
Paradoxical or not, it’s tragic, when they vote with the urban, true multicultural liberals.
Let’s switch the conversation from the boring statistical to enlightening anecdotal.
Many people lie to the pollsters.
Romney: Florida, North Carolina, Colorado
Obama: Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin
More predictions: http://now.msn.com/obama-supporters-tweeting-threats-to-riot-if-romney-elected
Yankee Pride, 313Chris!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954693/posts
http://wap.myfoxdetroit.com/w/main/story/77387965/
Who are you most likely to vote for in the Presidential election – Democratic President Barack Obama, or Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, another candidate, or are you undecided?
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86% President Barack Obama 46.24% Another candidate 4.94% Undecided 1.96%
Other predictions: http://now.msn.com/obama-supporters-tweeting-threats-to-riot-if-romney-elected
http://now.msn.com/obama-supporters-tweeting-threats-to-riot-if-romney-elected
Tried to post a comment (with only one link) four or five times with slight variation, yet nothing has appeared so far. I hope they don’t ALL appear sometime later. If so, I’m sorry. I give up trying for now.
“NYC has had complaints because so people could actually see living things swimming in the tap water.”
Bullshit! We have best tap water in the country.
More predictions: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Dtj0DzauZI&feature=related
In order of certainty …
1.) North Carolina – Obama barely won NC in 2008. Dems are set to lose House seats and the governor’s race. Early voting strongly suggests NC is lost to Obama.
2.) Colorado – Republicans are running better in Colorado than any year since 2002. Republicans are winning early voting. Colorado overwhelmingly voted before election day in 2008. Most of the vote is already in. Romney.
3.) Nevada – Romney is easily running a lot closer than McCain. Democrats have a big margin in Clark County. Harry Reid won Nevada in 2010. Obama.
4.) Florida – Democrats are crying over early voting. Republicans have huge enthusiasm advantage. 70 percent of Cubans support Romney. Romney has Florida in the bag.
5.) Virginia – Just to get Obama even, the Quinnipiac poll had to project a D+7 electorate in VA and assume Romney underperforms McCain. Early voting shows Romney wildly overperforming McCain and Obama underperforming in NOVA and Hampton Roads.
Republicans have won 2009, 2010, and 2011 in VA. Southwest Virginia has realigned toward the GOP and Obama is weak in NOVA with Independents. Romney wins Virginia.
6.) New Hampshire – There are twice as many Independents in New Hampshire as either Democrats or Republicans. Independents in New Hampshire are going for Romney. Even Maine is blushing purple.
Romney is overperforming in New England. He is a Yankee. That gives him an advantage over Bush and McCain. Romney wins New Hampshire.
7.) Iowa – Democrats don’t have a big enough lead in early voting to counter Republican turnout on election day. Iowa’s major newspapers all endorsed Romney. There are lots of Yankees in Eastern Iowa.
Romney is a Yankee. Like New Hampshire, the Yankee factor works to his advantage in Iowa. Iowa will be close but Independents will put Romney over the top.
8.) Ohio – Just look at the crowds. Obama’s crowd in Cleveland was 20x larger in 2008 than 2012. Yet the polls which suggest Obama is ahead are D+8 and D+9 polls. The Ohio electorate in 2008 was only D+5.
Romney is drawing larger crowds. CNN and the New York Times have both reported that Romney has a huge edge in enthusiasm. Even in 2008, Obama only won Ohio, 51 to 47.
The assumption of a D+9 electorate in Ohio doesn’t match either the crowds, the enthusiasm, or the Democrat margin in early voting. Even here, there is a better than average chance that more Democrats will vote Romney than the other way around.
Romney wins the Confederacy and Ohio and Colorado put him over 270. Iowa and New Hampshire break for Romney.
Note: The fact that Oregon, Maine, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are all blushing purple suggests to me that Romney must have a clear edge in the national popular vote like Gallup has said for two weeks now.
He will lose Oregon. He might win 1 electoral vote in Maine. This could break in unusual ways if Obama wins Ohio but Romney wins Colorado, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire.
I’m not sure about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota. The only thing that I can say for sure is that if Obama wins on Tuesday it will be because Yankees sided as a solid phalanx with their nigger president.
This election changes nothing in Washington.
POTUS, DEM
Senate, DEM
House, GOP
Likely rioters confident of their racial skill and strength: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBVGQrV3ht8&feature=fvwrel
This poll in Michigan has Romney up by 1. It is a D+9 poll. The Michigan electorate in 2008 was D+11.
http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/link/597723/final-michigan-election-poll-for-2012-election
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/the-case-for-obama-and-against-liberal-despair/264465/
A number of writers who identify with what passes in America for a left-of-center world view say they will not vote for Barack Obama’s reelection or that they would prefer that Mitt Romney become president. There seem to be three principal varieties of this attitude:
Obama is an unprincipled center-right politician who deceived us by campaigning as a progressive. Obama has implemented policies destructive enough to be “deal breakers” for principled voters. This objection focuses mainly on Obama’s drone campaign, the surge in Afghanistan, indefinite detention, and his purported willingness to cut Social Security and Medicare.
Obama, by “normalizing” bipartisan acceptance of Republican policies, may in the long-term be worse than Romney.This argument ratchets up the indictment against Obama by asserting not that Obama is insufficiently better than Romney, as the first argument usually implies, but that he may be worse. In this argument, Democrats are the key “enablers” in the process of moving the American political spectrum inexorably rightward.
“The worse the better.” I have not yet seen this argument in print, but I have heard some persons of a progressive or leftish tendency express it. They say they would prefer a Romney victory because it would administer a horse doctor’s dose of emetic to a deluded electorate. By “heightening the contradictions” inherent in the American political system, a Romney victory would accelerate a crash whose pieces a reinvigorated left-populism would pick up.
Nate Silver hedging … oh well, there is a chance the state polls *could* be biased in favor of Obama. That’s the only chance Romney has of winning the electoral college.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/?src=me&ref=general
If the state polls are right, then Nate Silver is right, and Obama will definitely win.
But, if you read the internals of the state polls and compare the assumptions of 2012 Democrat turnout to Obama’s performance in 2008 (assumptions like ludicrous fantasies of D+9 in Ohio), and compare that to other lines of evidence such as early voting, Independents, enthusiasm, crowd size, and the tie in the national polls, then the state polls are probably wrong.
It all comes down to the composition of the electorate.
My prediction: the post-election riots won’t happen, not even if Romney wins.
[5dimes lines 11-4-12, Sunday morning before Tuesday election.]
2012 US Presidential Election
Barack Obama wins 2012 election -310
Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +255
Barack Obama wins Colorado -115
Mitt Romney wins Colorado -125
Barack Obama wins Florida +120
Mitt Romney wins Florida -160
Barack Obama wins Iowa -350
Mitt Romney wins Iowa +250
Barack Obama wins Michigan -750
Mitt Romney wins Michigan +450
Barack Obama wins Minnesota -1500
Mitt Romney wins Minnesota +700
Barack Obama wins Nevada -750
Mitt Romney wins Nevada +450
Barack Obama wins New Hampshire -230
Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire +170
Barack Obama wins North Carolina +400
Mitt Romney wins North Carolina -600
Barack Obama wins Ohio -245
Mitt Romney wins Ohio +175
Barack Obama wins Oregon -4500
Mitt Romney wins Oregon +1500
Barack Obama wins Pennsylvania -750
Mitt Romney wins Pennsylvania +450
Barack Obama wins Virginia +100
Mitt Romney wins Virginia -140
Barack Obama wins Wisconsin -420
Mitt Romney wins Wisconsin +300
Predictions: Ron Paul will get write-in votes in all states, including states that do not report write-ins. Comnservatives who voted Neo-“conservative” in the primaries will rethink. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4P87p-Arcw&feature=related There were only four people involved in the newsletter, besides Ron Paul the editor.
I think this headline nails the race in Ohio and the assumption that there is a D+8 or D+9 electorate there:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/03/Obama-Cleveland-80k-compared-to-4k
Last night, in the cold and with long lines, 30,000 people showed up in Ohio to see Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. That same day, Obama attracted a meager 2,800. But enthusiasm for President FailureTeleprompter can be judged by more than comparisons with Romney. In 2008, at his last stop in Cleveland, a Democrat stronghold, Obama attracted 80,000 people. This morning, at his last 2012 stop in that same city, Obama could only attract 4,000.
“Comnservatives” was a typo, not a neologism.
All key swing states breaking Obama in the last few days. As you would expect in BRA – and when the GOP offers nothing for working class whites with regard to affirmative action, and immigration relief.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
Obama probably gets 300 electoral votes and wins the popular vote by a million or so.
“In the cold with long lines” sounds like self-disciplined Tea Partiers making an effort, while the urban Obamaist hordes were watching TV, etc. But the horde will come out or be driven out to vote on Election Day.
They are talking about Philly Burbs. Another state that votes 50/50 with the nogs tipping the balance to the Killadelphians.
Ron Brownstein talking about the white vote.
Well, at least the Jewish pundit mentions the existence of such a thing.
Yankees still just might renig.
I’m trying to show some moral support for our Yankee friends here. I’m assuming that the polls which suggest Yankees will renig are wrong.
BTW, we are going to have a lot of fun after the election analyzing the results, particularly the White vote.
On ABC I saw lies repeated. They said whites vote one way and blacks, Hispanics, Asians etc vote another.
None of this is true. Whites vote close to 50/50, mostly 55%. This is not out of the ordinary in French or German elections among whites there.
If anything whites are vote splitters on ideological grounds.
It’s the niggers of all stripes who vote like a bloc.
Even George Will let this issue slip by among the Irish Dowd, Black Brazile, Catho-Jewish Boggs and Jewstein. Oh and a the Greek Moderator.
Whites split 50/50 for all intents and purposes. The MSM pretends otherwise.
I doubt Romney gets more than 55% of the white vote. It’s all dismally predictable.
I tell you what, I’m going to breathe a whole lot easier if Romney gets the win. It will be on the most tenuous of platforms, but it will be sweet.
It’s not overall worth it to me for that moment of respite, and I don’t think it’s worth it to our people, but it will be sweet.