A close analysis of the 2012 presidential election reveals that two distinct nations voted on Nov. 6.
Mitt Romney was elected president of the Republic of Dixie in a landslide. He won a decisive victory over Barack Obama in the electoral college in the Confederacy, 148 to 42.
He won the White majority in every Southern state including Virginia and Florida (61% of the White vote) to Mississippi (89% of the White vote). In what is being described as a resounding victory for conservatism, the overwhelming majority of native White Southerners voted against Barack Obama for the second time.
The New York Times reports:
“NEW ORLEANS — In Bibb County, Ala., on Tuesday, a Democrat named Walter Sansing was in a race for county commissioner against a Republican named Charles Beasley, who was on the ballot despite the inconvenience of having died several weeks earlier. Mr. Beasley won.
That is what kind of Election Day it was in the South. Elsewhere Republicans may be wailing and gnashing teeth, but in the mid- and Deep South states, they had yet another cycle of unchecked domination. . .”
Here are some of the highlights of the 2012 election:
– Mitt Romney won the presidency and Republicans retained their supermajority in the Confederate Congress.
– Republicans won a supermajority in the North Carolina and Tennessee state legislatures.
– Republicans seized control of the Arkansas state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. They now control the state legislature and governorship of 12 Southern states, the state legislatures in 13 Southern state states, and at least one house of the state legislatures in 14 Southern states.
– Republicans have potentially won a supermajority in the Georgia state legislature which could give North Fulton County the power to secede from South Fulton County. Are we looking at Black Mecca Down?
– In 12 of the 15 Southern states, Republicans either maintained their numbers or picked up seats from Democrats in the state legislatures. Florida, Texas, and Missouri are the exceptions to the rule.
– Republicans picked up 9 House seats in Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. Democrats picked up 2 new seats in Texas, 2 new seats in Florida, flipped two seats in Florida, but lost 6 seats elsewhere in the South.
– Republicans won three Senate races in Texas, Tennessee, and Mississippi. Democrats won four Senate races in Missouri, Virginia, West Virginia, and Florida.
– Yankee carpetbaggers in Northern Virginia and the I-85 corridor in Central Florida are responsible for tipping those two states to Obama by voting in solidarity with the blacks and with Hispanic, Asian, and Jewish voters.
– Were it not for the presence of these Yankees, Republicans would have won a solid victory in every Southern state, including Virginia and Florida.
In Arkansas, the Democrats lost control of both chambers of the Arkansas state legislature “for the first time since Reconstruction.” If this is starting to sound familiar, it is because the Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and North Carolina state legislatures have all fallen to the Republicans within the last two years “for the first time since Reconstruction.”
The Republicans now control every House seat in Arkansas. In 2010, they picked up two House seats from Democrats. In 2012, they picked up the last Democratic-controlled House seat. This is up from controlling just one House seat in Arkansas in the 2009-2011 111th Congress.
Arkansas State House
As of November 2012: 43 Republicans, 53 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats
Arkansas State Senate
As of November 2012: 15 Republicans, 20 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 21 Republicans, 14 Democrats
In Tennessee, the Republicans added to their 2010 gains, reelected Sen. Bob Corker, and secured a supermajority in the Tennessee state legislature “for the first time since Reconstruction.”
In the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans won three House seats in Tennessee. They retained control of all their House seats in the 2012 elections. The Democrats have been pushed back to their black urban enclaves in Nashville and Memphis.
Tennessee State House
As of November 2012: 64 Republicans, 34 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 67 Republicans, 24 Democrats
Tennessee State Senate
As of November 2012: 20 Republicans, 13 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 24 Republicans, 9 Democrats
Mississippi doesn’t hold state elections again until 2015. The Republicans won control of the Mississippi state legislature “for the first time since Reconstruction” in the 2011 state elections. They also elected Phil Bryant as governor.
In the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans won two Blue Dog House seats from Democrats. They retained control of both of them in the 2012 elections. The Democrats have little chance of winning them back.
Mississippi State House
As of November 2012: 62 Republicans, 59 Democrats
Mississippi State Senate
As of November 2012: 30 Republicans, 21 Democrats
It was a big night for Republicans in Alabama.
In Alabama, Chief Justice Roy Moore of Ten Commandments fame was sent back to the Alabama Supreme Court. Lucy Baxley, the last Democrat holding statewide office in Alabama, was defeated. Alabama voters also approved Amendment 6 which nullifies Obamacare in Alabama.
Like Mississippi, Alabama didn’t hold elections for the state legislature this year. In the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans picked up two House seats in Alabama. They retained control of all their House seats in the 2012 elections.
Alabama State House
As of November 2012: 64 Republicans, 40 Democrats
Alabama State Senate
As of November 2012: 22 Republicans, 12 Democrats
Like Alabama and Mississippi, Louisiana didn’t hold elections in 2012 to the state legislature. Louisiana went through its “Republicans control the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction” moment in 2010 due to party switches among White Democrats. The Republicans further padded their margins in the Louisiana state legislature in the 2011 elections.
The only real change in Louisiana this year is the loss of one House seat due to reapportionment in Congress. When the Louisiana 3rd District race shakes out, Republicans will control 5 out of 6 House seats in Louisiana with Democrats pushed back to their black enclave in New Orleans.
Louisiana State House
As of November 2012: 58 Republicans, 45 Democrats
Louisiana State Senate
As of November 2012: 24 Republicans, 15 Democrats
In Oklahoma, the Democrats lost control of their last House seat in Little Dixie. They also lost seats in the Oklahoma House and the Oklahoma Senate. The Democrats are now on the verge of extinction in Oklahoma.
Oklahoma State House
Before the 2012 Election: 68 Democrats, 31 Republicans
After the 2012 Election: 72 Republicans, 29 Democrats
Oklahoma State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 32 Republicans, 16 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 36 Republicans, 12 Democrats
In Missouri, which is more of a Midwestern state than a Southern state, it was a mixed night for the Republicans. Sen. Claire McCaskill soundly defeated Todd Akin in a high profile Senate race. Republicans picked up seats in the Missouri House and lost seats in the Missouri Senate.
Republicans retained control of both chambers of the Missouri state legislature. They also retained control of all their House seats in Missouri. They control 6 out of 8 House seats in Missouri. The Democrats have been pushed back to their urban enclaves in St. Louis and Kansas City.
Missouri State House
Before the 2012 Election: 105 Republicans, 54 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 110 Republicans, 53 Democrats
Missouri State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 26 Republicans, 8 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 24 Republicans, 10 Democrats
It was a good night for Republicans in Kentucky.
In Kentucky, the Republicans finally succeeded in knocking off Rep. Ben Chandler in Lexington. They picked up four seats in the Kentucky House. It looks like they are going to add their numbers in the Kentucky Senate in a couple of close races.
Republicans will retain control of the Kentucky Senate. Democrats will retain control of the Kentucky House by a smaller margin. The same partisan shift that finally toppled the Democrats in Arkansas is now obviously underway in Kentucky which along with West Virginia remains the last foothold of Democrats in the Southern state legislatures.
Kentucky State House
Before the 2012 Election: 41 Republicans, 58 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 45 Republicans, 55 Democrats
Kentucky State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 21 Republicans, 14 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: Pending
In West Virginia, Barack Obama lost every county to Mitt Romney, but Democrat Joe Manchin was reelected to the U.S. Senate. The Democrats retained control of the West Virginia state legislature and Nick Rahall’s House seat, but the same erosion of support for the Democratic Party in Arkansas and Kentucky is on display here as well.
West Virginia State House
Before the 2012 Election: 35 Republicans, 65 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 46 Republicans, 54 Democrats
West Virginia State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 6 Republicans, 28 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 9 Republicans, 25 Democrats
Of all the Southern states, Republicans performed better in North Carolina than anywhere else in the 2012 election: they won (at least) three House seats from the Democrats, recaptured North Carolina’s electoral votes for Mitt Romney, won the North Carolina governor’s race, and won a supermajority in the North Carolina state legislature.
North Carolina State House
Before the 2012 Election: 67 Republicans, 52 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 77 Republicans, 43 Democrats
North Carolina State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 32 Republicans, 18 Democrats
In South Carolina, Republicans picked up one seat in the South Carolina Senate. Democrats lost two seats in the South Carolina House. The Republicans also picked up South Carolina’s new House seat due to reapportionment.
South Carolina State House
Before the 2012 Election: 76 Republicans, 48 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 76 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 5 Independents
South Carolina State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 27 Republicans, 19 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 28 Republicans, 18 Democrats
Georgia is one of the most diverse states in America. As of 2011, the population of Georgia was 55.5% White.
In spite of this, the Republicans managed to pick up seats in both the Georgia Senate and the Georgia House. With 119 Republicans in the Georgia House, the Republicans are only one vote shy of a supermajority in the Georgia state legislature, and it looks like they are going to get the supermajority by winning over Independent Rep. Rusty Kidd who will probably caucus with Georgia Republicans.
As Paul Kersey has explained at SBPDL, a Republican supermajority in the Georgia state legislature would empower Georgia Republicans to create new counties, which could potentially result (among other things) in the secession of North Fulton County and the recreation of Milton County in North Atlanta. Are we one vote away from Black Mecca Down?
John Barrow, the last White Southern Democrat in the House from the Deep South, survived and was reelected to the due to Mitt Romney crossover voters. The Republicans did win the new open House seat in Georgia due to reapportionment.
Georgia State House
Before the 2012 Election: 114 Republicans, 63 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 119 Republicans, 60 Democrats
Georgia State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 36 Republicans, 20 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 38 Republicans, 18 Democrats
Virginia is one of the states that didn’t hold state elections in 2012.
In Virginia, the big news is that Tim Kaine was elected to the Senate, Barack Obama won Virginia, and Republicans retained the three House seats that they won in the 2010 midterm elections. Democrats have been pushed back to the DC suburbs in NOVA and Robert Scott’s gerrymandered Virginia 3rd District which subsumes the blacks of Richmond and Hampton Roads.
As we have already seen, changing racial demographics cannot explain the Obama/Kaine victory in the Old Dominion. In Virginia, blacks were 20% of the electorate, Hispanics were 5% of the electorate, and Asians were 3% of the electorate. In Alabama, blacks were 28% of the electorate, which is the same share of the non-White vote in Virginia.
There were more non-White votes for Obama in Alabama because blacks broke 95% to 5% for Obama whereas Asians and Hispanics broke less decisively for Obama in Virginia. Romney lost Virginia because he only won 61% of the White vote. He easily won Alabama because he won 84% of the White vote.
The difference between Whites in Virginia and Alabama is Yankee transplants in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. If you compare John McCain’s performance in 2008 to Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012, you will see Romney overperformed McCain in the rest of the state where native Virginians live.
White voters in Northern Virginia who voted for Bush in 2004 sunk Mitt Romney in 2012.
Virginia State House
As of November 2012: 53 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 Independents
Virginia State Senate
As of November 2012: 20 Republicans, 20 Democrats
The biggest problem for the proponents of the “changing racial demographics” sunk Mitt Romney thesis is unquestionably Texas.
This is a state which is 44.8% white, 12.2% black, 38.1% Hispanic, and 4% Asian. If the “Romney was doomed by demographics” thesis is true, then Obama should have easily won Texas. In fact, 38.1% of the population of California is Hispanic, which is the exact same percentage as Texas.
In Texas, Republicans retained control of both the Texas House and Texas Senate, but lost their supermajority in the Texas House. Joe Straus, the speaker of the Texas House, is under attack by conservatives who want to overthrow him. This is probably a good thing considering that Texas Republicans squandered their supermajority by refusing to pass the immigration reform that is so wildly popular with their base after their huge victory in the 2010 midterm elections.
Immigration is the most important issue on the minds of voters in Texas. The overwhelming majority of Texans support tougher immigration laws that have been blocked for years by the pro-business wing of the Texas GOP.
Ted Cruz was elected to the U.S. Senate. Even though he is Hispanic, I have heard that he is an improvement on immigration over Kay Bailey Hutchinson. In the House, Democrats won three of the four new House seats due to reapportionment, and Republicans and Democrats exchanged control of Texas 23 and Texas 25.
Texas State House
Before the 2012 Election: 100 Republicans, 48 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 95 Republicans, 55 Democrats
Texas State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 19 Republicans, 12 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 19 Republicans, 12 Democrats
In Florida, another state that failed to pass immigration reform, the Republicans lost seats in the Florida House and Florida Senate, but retained their majority in the Florida state legislature.
Obama narrowly won the state and Ben Nelson was reelected to the Senate. Florida won two new seats from reapportionment. Alan Grayson is back in power in the new seat in Orlando area. Tea Party darling Col. Allen West has refused to concede his House race. Democrats also took over two seats in South Florida.
The story in Florida is much the same as in Virginia: Obama narrowly won Florida and the Democrats picked up seats in the Florida state legislature by overperforming in South Florida and the I-5 corridor between Tampa and Orlando.
In 2004, 2008, and 2012, John Kerry and Barack Obama won 42%, 42%, and 37% of the White vote in Florida. The reason the presidential race was so close in Florida this year was because of Obama’s decline in the White vote. The only reason the Democrats are competitive in Florida is because they get 2x more of the White vote in Florida than in Georgia.
In Florida, the blacks were 13% of the electorate and Hispanics were 17% of the electorate, and Obama only won 60% of “the Hispanic vote” in Florida. Romney lost Florida because he only won 61% of the White vote there.
The same Yankee transplants who reelected Alan Grayson as their avatar in Orlando won Florida for Obama.
Florida State House
Before the 2012 Election: 81 Republicans, 38 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 74 Republicans, 46 Democrats
Florida State Senate
Before the 2012 Election: 28 Republicans, 12 Democrats
After the 2012 Election: 26 Republicans, 14 Democrats