The Horserace – September 11, 2016

National Polls

LA Times: Hillary +1.4
UPI/Cvoter: Trump +2
People’s Pundit Daily: Trump +2.3
Washington Post/ABC News: Hillary +8 (2-way), Hillary +5 (4-way)
Morning Consult: Hillary +1 (2-way), Hillary +2 (4-way)

Hillary +7 (Aug. 11-14)
Hillary +6 (Aug. 18-20)
Hillary +3 (Aug. 24-26)
Hillary +2 (Sept. 1-2)
Hillary +1 (Sept. 6-9)

State Polls

13 Battleground States – CBS News/YouGov – Hillary +1

Ohio – CBS News/YouGov – Hillary +7 (4-way)

Florida – CBS News/YouGov – Hillary +2 (4-way)

Nevada – NBC News/WSJ/Marist – Hillary +1 (2-way), Trump +1 (4-way)

Georgia – NBC News/WSJ/Marist – Trump +3 (2-way), Trump +2 (4-way)

Arizona – NBC News/WSJ/Marist – Trump +1 (2-way), Trump +2 (4-way)

New Hampshire – NBC News/WSJ/Marist – Hillary +1 (2-way), Hillary +2 (4-way)


That’s an interesting discrepancy between the Washington Post/ABC News poll, which has Hillary up 8 points in the head-to-head race, and the NBC News swing state polls which has Hillary +1 in New Hampshire. That’s the closest poll that I have seen in New Hampshire in a long time.

How can she be up 8 points nationally or 5 points in the 4-way race and be edging Trump in Nevada and New Hampshire by 1 point? The answer is that the Washington Post poll is assuming a D+10 electorate whereas judging by the swing state numbers NBC News is seeing a 1 or 2 point national race.

It’s best to ignore the individual polls, which make different assumptions about the composition of the electorate, and give greater weight to the polling averages. Hillary is +3.1 in the 2-way race and +2.1 in the 4-way race in the RCP average this morning.

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  1. The fact that this low life, anti-White fraud is even in the running, let alone ahead, speaks volumes in itself.

    • How about the fact that a person has to have about a Billion dollars to run for President! The whole system at the Federal Level is completely bought and paid for. Amazing how this reality seems to be Ok with your average citizen.

  2. Once Trump stopped committing unforced errors, and his negatives and Hillary’s negatives started to equalize, the race has tightened.

    What will be the determinant? Motivation of the voting base. While there are many motivated cucks, leftists, and anti-whites, the single mother and non-white “base” is not all that motivated. Why? Obama hasn’t done much for the people left behind by globalism.

    Obamacare, while paying the premium, doesn’t pay the deductible, health care costs continue to outpace wage increases at the lower rungs of society, so people still can’t afford health care. Jobs continue to outsource, leaving behind only McJobs that you cannot raise a family on. The flip side of the base not caring about “emails” and “Benghazi” is that they are not rewarding Obama for dialing down US misadventure in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere; no other issues matter to the non-white and single mother “base” except hand-to-mouth issues.

    Trump’s base seems more motivated; I didn’t see Romney signs until October; I have been seeing Trump paraphernalia steadily increase since summer – I rarely see an H-> or “I’m with her”.

    There is the growth of what some want to call the “Alt-Right”, but is really the angry, alienated, and active traditional right, rather than some new thing lead by Spencer, Taylor and Brimelow with a pathetic “AR” symbol (see video).

    Even after the Hillary Clinton / Cass Sunstein up-sell of the “alt-right” most people voting for Trump have never even heard of it, and certainly don’t consider themselves “alt right” (I certainly don’t). My sense is that the exponential growth of the movement came from Bob Whitaker and Horace the Avenger’s Mantra converting the Ron Paul /
    Info Warrior types to white nationalists who have the 14 Words at the
    center of their political thinking. The “alt right” is a recent part of that exponential growth, but not its core, easily discarded for the “final form” of the movement.

    Most of Trump’s voter base hearken back to the America of Eisenhower, flush from victory in an apocalyptic war and the first and only nuclear war. They want that back.

    They hoped that Reagan-Bush would deliver that, but Reagan-Bush while not well understood as such at the time, were Neo-Conservatives, who granted the first Amnesty and launched the (((debt))) fueled, outsourcing, globalist economy, that we know today.

    The Trump base is a White Preservationist movement that currently wants to build a wall and deport all illegals to buoy white demographics in America; there is literally nothing Trump can do or say to stop me from supporting him at this point, and I am not alone. We win with Trump and hold his feet to the fire, or we win with Partition, but we must win, and we will win.

  3. During the last two months of the campaign, Americans will see so much of Trump, doing four or five rallies a day to 100,000-plus crowds, and so little of Hillary as she sleeps 18 hours a day and attends the occasional $10,000-per-plate fundraiser with no cameras allowed, that it will seem as if Trump is running unopposed.

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