The Horserace – November 5, 2016

National Polls

LA Times – Trump +5.4
People’s Pundit Daily – Trump +1
UPI/Cvoter – Hillary +1
IBD/TIPP – Hillary +2 (2-way), Tie (4-way)
ABC Tracking – Hillary +4
McClatchy/Marist – Hillary +2 (2-way), Hillary +1 (4-way)
Reuters/Ipsos – Hillary +4 (2-way), Hillary +4 (4-way)

State Polls

Colorado – Gravis – Tie (4-way)

Pennsylvania – Gravis – Hillary +2 (4-way)
Pennsylvania – Morning Call – Hillary +6 (2-way), Hillary +4 (4-way)

Nevada – People’s Pundit Daily – Trump +5

Iowa – Loras – Hillary +1 (4-way)

Indiana – Gravis – Trump +10 (3-way)
Indiana – WTHR – Trump +11 (3-way)

New Jersey – Stockton College – Hillary +11 (4-way)

Reading The Tea Leaves

Et tu, McClatchy?

The McClatchy/Marist poll has been a thorn in Trump’s side for months now. In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the McClatchy/Marist poll came out and had Hillary +15 in the 2-way race and Hillary +14 in the 4-way race. In the aftermath of Hillary’s stumble in early September, the McClatchy/Marist poll had Hillary +7 in the 2-way race and Hillary +6 in the 4-way race.

If you closely watch the polls like I do, you know this poll had been THE wet blanket (the other one is the AP/Gfk poll) on Trump’s performance in the RCP average. It created the impression of a Hillary landslide after Khizr Khan. Then it saved the day again in September with a similar outlier when Trump was poised to overtake Hillary in the RCP average after she fell on her face on national television.

So anyway, I expected this outlier poll to come in again with something like Hillary +6 on the eve of the election. The fact that it is Hillary +1 in the 4-way race is significant. This is the equivalent of the LA Times poll having Hillary +3.

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13 Comments

  1. Marist poll – Richard Baris says there are some polls which will never show Trump ahead no matter what. Marist is one of those polls. The fact that they only gave Hillary a +1 should terrify the left and our NeverTrump friends.

  2. In the FiveThirtyEight election podcast on Thursday (November 3), Nate Silver remarked on snarky reporters, as he called them, who suggest that a candidate has a problem every time he or she makes a campaign visit to a state that is supposedly “safe” for him or her. He spoke as follows …

    “I felt like the Clinton campaign spent too much time listening to those reporters and didn’t spend enough time shoring up their firewall states. For example, when you pull advertising in Colorado and Virginia, then what happens there? Well, then it tightens up, right? So then you have to spend resources there. You probably still won’t lose, … it’s close enough…. … I felt like they took their eye off the ball a little bit in some of these so-called firewall states.”

    The next day, Politico had the following headline and sub-headline …

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/881eed19ddf32dd25d7205e31b704bc12dcf11a680cee1cc599118b5414c5edf.jpg

    • That would be true if the candidate was Jeb Bush. Notice how they leave independents completely out of the equation? Listening to them independents don’t exist in Nevada – it is simply Dem vs. Republican.

      • I just checked, you’re right. There are 222,239 registered voters with no party affiliation in Clark County, Nevada. This number doesn’t even include the rest of the state or the 61,514 registrations listed as Libertarian, inactive or other. The Heavy article completely left them out.

  3. Any American who has a history in the United States, of parents, grand parents, great grand parents, etc. etc., being born and raised here, and votes for Hillary is truly very naïve or a total sell-out to his and her American ancestors. I don’t expect all Americans to want to vote for Trump. But those Americans who don’t like Trump should be voting for for a third party candidate. Voting for anyone EXCEPT Hillary.

    Any American by now who doesn’t know how very deeply corrupt Hillary is , and doesn’t know how much Hillary hates the United States and wants to destroy the USA for the benefit of the International Globalists, and for the fruition of their Globalist NWO One World Government, really doesn’t care about the United States. There’s TOO much information availalbe and it’s very easy to access all the information, it just takes a litlte interest, a little, curiousity, a little gratitide, to look into what all the candidates have to say and to find out their histories and what they’re all about. Interest and curiousity is born from gratitude. Alot of ingrates around.

    if Hillary gets in, we’ll be ruled 100% by third world mobsters who hate everything about the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, everything good about the United States they will snuff out. In short, we will be ruled by Hillary’s bosses. Her bosses are foreigners and all of them mobsters and tyrants and murderers. She will use her Muslim Brotherhood Islamic Jihadists she bankrolls and supplies weapons and guns to via the mobsters in the shadow government to ATTACK CHRISTIANS IN THE UNITED STATES. There will be violent and bloody persecution of Christians in the United States if Hillary gets in. It will be done in such a way to make it “look like” Hillary has nothing to do with it.

    Her Muslim Brotherhood are SPECIFICALLY TARGETING Christians FOR DEATH AND GENOCIDE everywhere Hillary’s Muslim Brotherhood and her other Islamic Jihadist mercenary armies go in the world. She wants tens of millions of Muslims from Sub Sahara Africa to immigrate to the USA , while the mobsters she hooked-up will supply the Muslim immigrants with tons of weapons and guns. This is already happening with Obama. Hillary wants tens of millions of Muslims to come to this country, and in stealth out of view from the public, supply the Muslim immigrants with lots of money and lots of weapons and guns.

    She’s been very upfront about wanting tens of millions of Muslims for this country, it’s NOT a secret. She just never gets around to telling us Americans she supplies the Muslim immigrants with weapons and guns and behind the scenes her cohorts goad the Muslim immigrants on to Islamic Jihad, while her cohorts hand out lots of money and lots of weapons and guns to the Muslim immigrants. I’m not making anything up. I’m not exaggerating, this is NOT hyperbole.

    Her Islamic Jihadists she bankrolls and supplies weapons and guns to and loves so much KILL Christians, QUA Christians, Christians are Specifically TARGETED EVERYWHERE Hillary’s Muslim Supremacist/Islamic Jiahdists go in the world. Hillary will NOT make an exception for her Muslim Brotherhood who are SPECIFICALLY TARGETING CHRISTIANS ALL OVER THE WORLD : HILLARY IS NOT GOING TO MAKE AN EXCEPTION FOR THE CHRISTIANS IN AMERICA.

  4. Government employees at the top of the food chain live lavishly at our expense.

    http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/michelle-obamas-mom-marina-robinson-will-get-160k-life-dime/

    First Grandma Marian Robinson, 79, will receive a lifetime 160K government pension when she leaves the White House next year, according to congressional budget statements.
    According to documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), Mrs. Robinson earned the lifetime pension for “services rendered as full-time/in-home caregiver” for granddaughters Malia, 18, and Sasha, 15, during President Obama’s two terms in office.
    Michelle Obama’s mom got to live like a queen in the White House, but they are going to pay her $160,000 every year for the rest of her life for babysitting her own granddaughters?

    This is the kind of graft and corruption that happens in places like Iraq and North Korea. Michelle Obama’s mom didn’t earn a pension that’s THREE TIMES bigger than the average American family’s income.

    It seems that just like Barack, the rest of the Obama’s never had real jobs, and instead of live high on the hog off the backs of regular taxpaying Americans.

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