This is what I assume will happen on Tuesday.

This is the scenario that I discussed with Richard Spencer.

After implementing the 2012 GOP autopsy in his 2020 campaign, Donald Trump greatly improves over his 2016 performance with Hispanics. He marginally improves with the black vote due to criminal justice reform and the Platinum Plan. Joe Biden wins the 2020 election though because the bottom falls out with college educated suburban Whites, disaffected White working class voters, White women and especially White seniors. The “white supremacist” Trump loses Whites while winning minorities!

There is evidence this is happening in a sample of 51K likely voters:

The Jared Kushner theory of the 2020 election was that White voters have “no place else to go.” It looks like they are shifting to Biden or staying home.

Strangely enough, Donald Trump never once appealed to White voters. He focused exclusively on winning African-American, Hispanic-American, Asian-American and LGBT American voters.

About Hunter Wallace 12382 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent


  1. I’ve argued, with colleagues in the UK that the US election is basically about white America’s sense of self preservation. One can only hope that it is not too late.

      • From the data I’m seeing white people are voting by mail. Up to around 1/2 of the white population. This is a trend in Florida’s Miami Dade. Blacks and Hispanics don’t do paperwork so good. They don’t do mailing so good. The Democratic Party banked on mail in ballots, but the catch is that while filing paperwork is easy for whitey it’s pain for groids. I think the operational characteristics of the Democratic Party, with no physical attempt to get out the vote has probably doomed them to several serious reversals. Avoidable reversals. I was shocked at the idea the Dems thought that mail in ballots might give them an advantage, given that they literally need to drive nigs and spics to the booth and pay them in normal circumstances. Getting blecks to vote via a mail in system? Omfg wtf was the DNC thinking.

  2. You might be right, Hunter. Maybe. But then I see Biden / Kamala Harris struggling to get 200 people to show up to their events / rallies while Trump supporters come out in the tens of thousands even when Trump is not even around. Trump parades are an example, hell there is an even a Trump rally going on in South Africa today. Trump rallies in New York City and Beverly Hills.

    Yet you keep claiming Biden will win this miraculous landslide. Perhaps you are right but you can also be dead wrong.

    I don’t hate Trump. He’s not our enemy and neither is the GOP, at best they are incompetent. I don’t see them as an outright enemy like you do. I see what the left for what is, severely and openly anti-White, aggressively and physically attacking White people, the right doesn’t do that.

    I would rather have an incompetent right in charge rather than the anti-White left who want to implement policies specifically targeting White people.

    I think your hatred of Trump blinds you and the only outcome you hope for is the shit to hit the fan so you can bring about an ethno state utopia.

    • The Republicans are anti-white. More so than the Democrats because they try to conceal it. People like you who insist one arm of ZOG is better than the other are the real enemy.

      • Agreed Ricky. Those still trying to rationalize the salvation of the Republican party and Trump are a problem. The only way forward is another option as the Republicans are both anti white and conmen

    • “I see Biden / Kamala Harris struggling to get 200 people to show up to their events / rallies while Trump supporters come out in the tens of thousands even when Trump is not even around”:

      Trump supporters are coming down with COVID from attending those rallies, and there is a direct correlation between state-wide increases in COVID and decreases in support for Trump in those states.

      Furthermore, when the silent ones vote they have the same effect as when the most noisy and enthusiastic vote. (Actually no effect because these “elections” are meaningless.)

      I agree with Hunter’s prediction, but I don’t care. These “elections” are meaningless anyway. Both parties serve the Plutocrats, and no good choices would be allowed in these “elections,” except perhaps on the local level.

      • Good try, but I’m going through the granular demographics and in areas like Minnesota there is a subdued race war. This is a state with a nigger representing Minneapolis backed by a tribal impi of around 25,000 Somalis. and an attorney general nigger Muslim convert battling white farmers, miners, engineers, police, electricians mechanics etc etc. A lot of the outcome depends on how a relative handful of pampered white chicks with a masters in sociology decide to vote at this point.

        • Gop inc isn’t our enemy gryphon?! They are more then just incompetent. Openly antiwhite with the dems secretly antiwhite with the Rinos? makes no freaking difference they are neo liberal They proved how antiwhite they are this election with more then 300 statues and monuments came down during potato blumpfs presidency and the jogger and minority simping? Absolutely unforgivable

          Just go attach your mouth to Bitch McConnell asshole you if you are gonna keep up this pathetic cuckservative inc grifting gryphon no one here is impressed by your basic bitch blender brain takes

    • “””… I see Biden / Kamala Harris struggling to get 200 people….”””

      Had you ever seen Putin rally ? Or Stalin rally ?

      Rally is for people who have no idea what to do The other side has plan vote Joe to power, then push him aside and launch full communism. Instead of going rally, average commie makes preparation to revolution. Detailed mapping of possible enemies and their locations is to top of preparation.

      NKVD never had any rally. They just made sure that they have power and millions of enemies will be dead.

      This is how communism works. Determined well organized commies versus gullible cucked delusional mass who will votes itself to the grave because there is something what they don`t like on their last saviors.

      • They are not that organized. The Dems spunked their wad on mail in voting. Niggers can’t fill in forms and mail them in. Bank on it.

      • Stalin was a very popular guy, who held huge rallies, he eliminated the Jewish Communist leadership, and their followers. Americans tend to buy the Trotsky/Zinoviev/Kamenev propaganda, rather than the facts.

        • “Stalin eliminated jewish communist leadership” Since when? lol Was that after he genocided poles, cossacks, various slavs and Ukrainians? And no to mention all the bloody brother wars?!

          Its disappointing how many on the right believe in nazbol propaganda. You are just admiring the ‘strongman’ its a type of alpha idolatry that is quite puzzling to me. Stalin was no saviour of the white race you are fooling yourself Krafty. To simp for these dictator pieces of shit like stalin or lenin is idiotic

      • “Had you ever seen Putin rally ? Or Stalin rally ?

        Military rally.Now if Trump will hold military rally in his nation capital of DC(60% African ghetto) which he wanted to,game changer.

    • They probably don’t care about the act of going to a rally and seeing the same speech over and over again.

    • Trump is a reality TV star and a showman. They are just going for the pure spectacle. It’s no indication of public sentiment.

        • I am starting to wonder about the motivation of people like ricky and anonymous. Are they actual leftist plants posting here to cause discouragement and spread despair? I’m starting to wonder about HW, too.

  3. The question is not what percentage of any particular identifiable group votes for or against Trump in a genetic sense. The election will be won or lost for each candidate by the number of gains or losses for Trump and Biden (for Joe, compared to Hillary) in those individual states that are competitive for each party in 2020 as compared to 2016. For Trump, many older voters have passed between elections, and he most likely has lost support among voters for whom his promise of better paying jobs has not materialized, or whom have suffered from the anti-white male accerationism. Also, many young persons turned 18 between elections. The young male vote probably is slightly favorable for Trump, but the young female vote will literal be 100% against him (he is the obnoxious father they want to flee).

    On the other hand, some working class voters of darker complection have gained jobs under Trump, and for never-Trump Republicans he has essentially governed like Reagan or G.W. Bush, so they will switch to him. For Biden, he is on the surface more likeable than Hillary, and Bernie Bros and Hos now believe they control the party, unlike 2016, so the Dem crazies who sat out 2016 in competitive states like working class voters say out 2012 for Mitt Romney will vote for a man they loath, Biden, to capture the keys to the kingdom, or so they think.

    As the voting booth is still private, the final decisions of these potential new supporters or defectors will be in flux until they actually vote, and so the result is not assured either way. And once the manipulations by both sides to move the formal actions that certify the winner begin, how it ends will be decided by whoever has the stronger will to win. It will most likely come down to which part of the apparatus of coercion (law enforcement, the military, and the black ops specialists ) prevails.

    • “The young male vote probably is slightly favorable for Trump, but the young female vote will literal be 100% against him (he is the obnoxious father they want to flee).”

      How right you are. One parishioner’s youngest daughter (now in college) was all ‘anti-Trump’ just because she didn’t ‘like’ the man. That’s why her parents made no attempt to send her an absentee ballot. Children should NOT be given the right to vote, until they are married and mothers…..

      I mean, Amy Double Names is going to overturn Roe, and enforce public stoning of Sodomites, right?
      Oh, yes. PLEASE GOD….

      • @Fr. John+

        “Children should NOT be given the right to vote, until they are married and mothers”

        The data shows that married White women with children tend to vote along the same lines as single White men. So you’re 100% right about that one. However, Roe v Wade isn’t going to be overturned, the banning of abortion will not happen in the USA.

  4. 2016 Trump got 54% of suburban women votes,it’s probably unchanged now and/or small percentage won’t vote for either candidate.

  5. The only pollsters I have long found consistently accurate (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and Quinnipiac) all have it at an extremely close election.

    Also, watching the Biden Campaign makes it clear that they think they have lost Florida and Texas and are worried about holding Minnesota and Michigan.

    Trump has even closed the normally huge gap with Biden in places like Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties.

    Trump is scoring 31% in The Black vote, not to mention that, again, in Florida, he has gone from 23% Hispanick support in 2016 to now 43%

    Now, with the last quarter’s economic numbers in, it shows Trump has engineered not only a record quarter, he has managed to keep our damage much lower than other industrialized countries in The West.

    And the most consistent election predicter, Helmut Norpoth, has Trump a 91% chance of being reelected.

    I do not see Biden winning, but, rather, trump doing even better in The Electoral College in 2020 than he did in 2016.

    Biden and Harris are the two most unpopular candidates from the Democrat field, their rallies are failures, and Biden is a gaff machine.

    In light of all that, I cannot see a Biden victory – even with the maliciously loosed and fake statistical Wuhan hysteria.

    Trump will win, the riots will be amazing, Trump will clamp down on them, unlike before, at which point we may very well begin to see secessions of Blue States.

    • > Still thinks the orange con-man will do anything beneficial towards real (White) Americans after its 2nd term at this point.

      LOL cope some more you pathetic conservative.

        • @Anonymous….

          Absolutely spot on – everyone who has a different point of view from you must be an ignoramus, a Russian bot, or a front for something else.


          Keep up the good work and you will soon be seeing poison spiders in your morning coffee, giants ticks crawling out your casserole dishes…

  6. If BIden wins, it’s going to be the bill clinton coaliation, not the obama coalition, that does it. And I predict he will, though it’s not a inaugurate. He could miss the lay up.

  7. Hey Hunter,
    Here is personal poll of 4 White senior citizen couples I know -my parents, and Mom’s three siblings and their spouses. All four couples are over age 70 (one over age 80). None of these eight people have a college degree. All the men were common laborers before retirement. All live in the same rural county, which is 94.5% “White alone” and the average “household” income is $45,341 in this county.
    The results? One couple is sitting out the election, one is all for Trump, and two are going for Biden. And I, at age 37, will not be voting in the election. Take this data for whatever it is worth.

  8. The solution in two words: ethnonational socialism. Four: Christian (not Catholic) agrarian ethnonational socialism.

    • Stupid as usual with your retarded hate of Catholics, who saved Europe for hundreds of years while the prods counted shekels with their jew bosses. As a Catholic, I only care about whether a person is for the White race, I actually don’t give a shit whether they are protestant, atheist, pagan, or agnostic, as long as they support our people. Catholics built Europe and protestants have been trying to destroy it ever since.

      • Opposition to Papism is enlightened and advanced, not “retarded.” With accurate information, honest, good-willed intellect always comes to the same conclusion. Your “history” of Catholic purity and opposition to Talmudism and Protestant impurity and anti-European destructiveness is obviously inaccurate, and very ineffective.

        • I really begin to think that most of you prods are hopeless twats. You seriously would sink Christian Catholics rather than support White people. Sad and disgusting.

          • Mousieish,

            I came to that conclusion last year. I still find this website interesting however . I wrote a book report and gave an oral speech in class a year ago on my experiences on this website. They were astonished by what I reported yet I had the copied/printed out comments to prove my point.

            Still, there are some intelligent people on this website. The key is just to ignore the unintelligent or you will go crazy or be furious all the time.

          • I wonder if Cristina is Cristina when she’s in school or just Cristina when she’s here with us. I also wonder if she was open about her own views regarding the White race and comparisons of it with other races as she defended her book report in front of her peers and teachers.

    • Blacks don’t know how to fill out paperwork. And the Dems hoped a fucking mailing in ballot was going to do the trick? Harvard Brain at work there.

      • They can always go to an Soros funded workshop for a free forty, some chicken legs and let the (((counselors))) fill it out for them.

  9. Hunter, your irrational hate of Trump is just like the hate the left has for him. You seemingly would rather see the communist dems get in than Trump, who will at least give us more time to prepare. Astounding, actually.

    • trump is a shill psy-op for the sleaziest element of the left, he is a con man who accomplished nothing other than fueling toxic social unrest like we have never seen. He is a creation of the media and a casino promoter whose main priority was a tax cut for himself and his elite group. His main mission was to make Obama look good in comparison.

      • @ uachtar ard, those people you reference are all satanically sleazy!!! From the top of the pyramid to the bottom. Meaning sir! These scumbag bolshevic democrats.

  10. @ banned hipster. ” the new democratic majority”!, lol ! Me.thinks plato knew what he was talking about when he said” thee masses are incurably ignorant” , too use a tired olde, but true cliche, mainstream america cannot handle the truth, thats why they keep drinking the kool aide, something to wash that narrative down with! Any csa soldiers who vote for dirty joe and his concubine, i hope your the first ones , they bring before their ” truth.and reconciliation inquisition” you might as well bow and beg , it suites you all!

  11. Yes the Republicans are well aware of Demographic changes and are always looking for a slice of the pie from Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities. That in turn always turns the Republicans completely against White People which pretty much sums up America’s problems in 2020. Deo Vindice !

  12. I bet that when Trump wins, you will drop this subject just as fast as you dropped the one million dead from covid crusade you were on when that never happened?

      • Your “Plandemic” virus hoax conspiracy theory crowd is also spreading the “truth” (lie) that “Fauci said mask wearing, not influenza, caused most of the deaths in 1918-1920” and that “the unmasked buried the mask-wearing” in the Spanish Flu pandemic!!!

        • Hyper-capitalist Sweden’s “herd immunity” policy and de facto euthanasia for the elderly, praised by the “Plandemic” crowd, results in a nearly ten times higher death rate in Sweden this fall than in neighboring countries such as Finland and Denmark that still make some effort to “flatten the curve.” The excess of old White people is being reduced, while young cheap-labor immigrants are spared. Sweden is known as one of the best places in the world for corporations to do business.

    • There has been a turn-around in the polls recently and Trump’s chance of victory increases, beginning after the second debate or after the spectacle of Trump’s “miraculous” recovery from Covid (with massive medical intervention with the best new treatments, especially antibodies conferring “instant immunity”) and I am sure Hunter is as aware of it as everyone else who follows the “news.” But no one knows how this drama will end. But whichever side of the same coin wins will make little or no practical difference.

  13. Wignat Whexit and Moral Revolution

    Whexit and Moral Revolution (counter-currents.com/2020/11/wignat-whexit/#more-123066) … Dixie came close but she was stomped down by external and internal forces, and as for the “moral revolution” ever occurring in the America’s? I don’t see it in our future…

    Why? The deep subconscious false dichotomy built into the so called left/right paradigm:

    democrats: associating identitarianism with degeneracy equating “identity” as being immoral

    republicans: associating racial multiculturalist “civic nationalist meritocracy” with “social conservatism” equating “social conservatism” with immoral political economy (ie. oligarchical usury communism).

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